Lens 2021-09-29T03:55:00

Tweets

Pragmatic progressives versus centrists living in the past https://t.co/ddMton1Bwm
There surely is a hard core of people who really believe that vaccines will turn you into zombies, or something, and will quit rather than take their shots. But most of them will fold 3/
A large part of the anti-vax, anti-mask mind set — not for everyone, but for many — involves refusal to accept personal inconvenience, real or perceived, for the sake of the public good. Naturally, such people won't make personal sacrifices for their beliefs 2/
So angry people claiming they'd quit rather than getting vaxed are ... getting vaxed. They huffed, and puffed, and caved. And I think this was predictable 1/ https://t.co/4UUtRTCULE
@RadioFreeTom maybe this was all a crafty plot to get cops to self-abolish
As the president meets with Sinemanchin I hope he reads them this quote: https://t.co/hkNpCbc0DX
@yeselson This really is on the level of "If gravity is real, why don't the people in China fall up?"
Remembering the time @tedcruz thought the weather sucked and high tailed it to Cancun and then got caught and had to scurry back and hand out some water bottles in mom jeans.
I feel like Catholics asking for religious exemptions should probably be sent this link. https://t.co/S8OfPmbzK7
it's just the regular process of Republicans threatening to light the country on fire if they don't get their way. I mean, happens every two or three years. https://t.co/X2dHOYLeTX
lib version of boat parade. sad. https://t.co/hPfJW3HMoo
@DanteAtkins Gold Member in Gold Member
wear it with pride https://t.co/g2jrXjlBom
this is one of the most horrifying and anger inducing things I’ve read during the whole pandemic https://t.co/AZZqyZm2tR
nice of Cotton to give Milley the opportunity to drop kick his 'my neck is as wide as my head' ass from here to eternity https://t.co/lZjMX7BBuR
Just got an Instagram ad for a Lego Christmas house set. And man that’s so old school after huge LOTR and various other lego sets my kids had. I’d expect they we’d be on to like a Chapo Traphouse lego set or maybe Jan 6 lego set w various members of the MAGA cinematic universe.
Sociologist @JessicaCalarco has observed that, while other nations have social safety nets, the U.S. chooses to rely on women. "It was the kind of statement that knocks you back a step for how obvious, complex and direct it is," writes @tressiemcphd. https://t.co/rbP1WAqy12
RT @BozT: A sobering and accurate description of so much of the current landscape with regard to criminal investigations and prosecutions o…
“Assuming that he is in good health, Trump will almost certainly run for president in 2024, and if he does, he’ll do so in a Republican Party pacified of any resistance to his will to power,” writes @jbouie. https://t.co/LituXBMQtG
RT @joehagansays: "[T]he belief that TikTok is nurturing aesthetic genius sometimes feels a Philistine’s delusion, nurtured by an adult est…
As a 9-year-old, Devon Michael knew the role of Anakin Skywalker could change his life. But he didn’t know how. He shares his story in a new Op-Doc by @bgproudfoot. https://t.co/Aw4qzC8aDB
“We might think we have dominion of the land, but our power is nothing compared to the glaciers that shaped New York or the climate change that is taking shots now,” writes Eric Sanderson, a conservation ecologist. https://t.co/VUYvN3FDLS
"When I first went to the Smokies and hiked up into the old growth in the southern Appalachians, it was like somebody threw a switch," Richard Powers tells @ezraklein. "The world sounded different and smelled different." https://t.co/HoNXZraQLT
RT @dwallacewells: “Contrary to legend, many of the balking Democrats don’t come from swing districts; anyway, the Biden economic agenda is…
RT @Eugene_Scott: “Assuming that he is in good health, Trump will almost certainly run for president in 2024, and if he does, he’ll do so i…
We asked artists and graphic designers to redesign the American flag. Here’s what they came up with. https://t.co/S7vYvoRJzJ
RT @thatdarongirl: Very unexpectedly moved by this this morning. https://t.co/errP0q2rIV
RT @rickhasen: New ⁦@jbouie⁩, citing my paper on the risk of election subversion https://t.co/OjKrbw0yC7
“If you actually want to take precautionary steps that might really limit whatever damage social media is doing,” @DouthatNYT says, “you need to create a world where social media is understood to be for adults.” https://t.co/U2uMuJMYKN
“Sometimes, and much to our detriment, we find real events are simply too outlandish to take seriously,” @jbouie writes. “Many professional Republicans, for example, initially dismissed the movement to ‘Stop the Steal’ as a ridiculous stunt.” https://t.co/huM8CrMomG
“It’s no longer radical, or even really necessary, to proclaim that women take pleasure in sex,” writes @michelleinbklyn. “If anything, taking pleasure in sex seems, to some, vaguely obligatory.” https://t.co/Qqtla4Doyo
“The digital maps that orient our lives on smartphones and laptops are the result of a series of compromises or half-truths and don’t always accurately represent the world as it is,” writes @GregBensinger. https://t.co/wcbWkEKNYW
Sociologist @JessicaCalarco has observed that, while other nations have social safety nets, the U.S. chooses to rely on women. "It was the kind of statement that knocks you back a step for how obvious, complex and direct it is," writes @tressiemcphd. https://t.co/viYpZAm3Xk
Angela Merkel's "real legacy is the evidence that effective politics need not mean shedding humanity or steadfastness, and that being underestimated may be the true key to political longevity," writes Serge Schmemann. https://t.co/FEvURZjp7k
“We ran one of the largest and most sophisticated studies of mask wearing,” say @Jabaluck, @Kwong_Laura and Stephen Luby. “In communities where we promoted surgical mask use, Covid-19 cases dropped by 11 percent.” https://t.co/KPx9CIzr4v
"We ought to begin with the idea that each one of us has dignity whether we work or not," writes @jonmalesic. "Your job, or lack of one, doesn't define your human worth." https://t.co/ozxBWuxEWh
When a someone facing almost insurmountable political odds — as a woman, an East German and a scientist — rises to the pinnacle of German power and stays there for four terms, there’s something there to learn and emulate, writes Serge Schmemann. https://t.co/TMCefvdGy1
"It's somewhat Orwellian to rewrite historical utterances to conform to modern sensitivities," writes @michelleinbklyn. https://t.co/5NTsYjJjUB
"The Biden administration’s handling of the Haitians was just wrong, and heartbreaking, and disgusting," @CharlesMBlow writes. "These Black people were treated like animals because Biden is afraid of a Washington full of monsters." https://t.co/GzP1Qsnmly
More surprising than G.O.P. efforts to undermine the Biden agenda "has been the self-destructive behavior of Democratic centrists," says @paulkrugman. Why should Biden abandon highly popular policies like taxing corporations and reducing drug prices? https://t.co/mGZjxysAwY
"When New York City was the epicenter of Covid in the United States, large swaths of the country looked on at our suffering but apparently found it impossible to see themselves in us," @MaraGay says. "How many lives could have been saved if they had?" https://t.co/ss0TPoCf9H
RT @MichaelRStrain: THREAD. It is in Republican's political interest to cooperate enough with Democrats to raise the debt ceiling. It is al…
"When New York City was the epicenter of Covid in the United States, large swaths of the country looked on at our suffering but apparently found it impossible to see themselves in us," @MaraGay says. "How many lives could have been saved if they had?" https://t.co/fS6QZCQWh0
"What’s gone wrong for Biden is a combination of bad luck, bad choices and inherent weakness," writes @DouthatNYT. https://t.co/dw4ESpD5lU
RT @MargaretRenkl: No matter how hard I try to understand, this makes no sense to me at all. Via @nytopinion: https://t.co/Kaw0TSBx7j
RT @DusetzinaS: If you are wondering how it feels to live in a low vaccination state now, this describes it well. When Medical Ethics Col…
RT @fayepenn: Never bet against NYC. It may take time, but we will figure it out. Love this ⁦@MaraGay⁩ essay and how it captures the opti…
RT @JessicaValenti: This clear-eyed love letter to NYC from @MaraGay is just gorgeous https://t.co/lDJzQJD3AN
RT @ConnieSchultz: “It is the people who live here who deserve credit for getting us to this point: the residents who got vaccinated, who a…
RT @paulkrugman: Pragmatic progressives versus centrists living in the past https://t.co/ddMton1Bwm
RT @petercoy: How a Princeton Economist Teaches Resilience https://t.co/YXmqPF6NTN
RT @michelleinbklyn: https://t.co/OyoMAk2swI https://t.co/VoQiuvfFff
Interrupting isn't always rude, explains the linguist Deborah Tannen. Indeed, for those of us who learned the cultural practice of "cooperative overlapping," talking over people can be a supportive conversational move. https://t.co/sSWWWgdmnP
"We ought to begin with the idea that each one of us has dignity whether we work or not," writes @jonmalesic. "Your job, or lack of one, doesn't define your human worth." https://t.co/kJTOmYLTwk
“Nearly one-fourth of U.S. adults have a disability, many of whom rely on S.S.I. or home- and community-based services to survive,” says @SeeMiaRoll of @CAPDisability. Reducing the funding Biden promised them “would be more than just ethically wrong.” https://t.co/CBID4XNtE6
"The convergence among candidates goes beyond political style," @onachtwey of Germany's election on Sunday. "After 16 years of rule by Ms. Merkel, the country has settled into a seemingly unshakable status quo." https://t.co/L8BCgWK5AP
"We’re going to keep going with New York City if that’s all right with you. And it will sure as hell be back," wrote @JerrySeinfeld last year to a "putz on LinkedIn" who had fled to Florida. https://t.co/zaTxIyKdc6 https://t.co/PxAu56Pfvk
According to a new report, the 27 richest American dynastic families have seen their wealth grow by a combined 1,007% since 1983, while the typical family has seen its wealth increase only by 93% over nearly the same period.  https://t.co/xiY0ptjA14
RT @gailcollins: Heaven forbid you pass up a chance to score political points just because it could wreck the economy. https://t.co/OnqnQs…
Vladimir Putin, knowing that Angela Merkel fears dogs, deliberately summoned his black Lab into the room where they were meeting. She offered a biting explanation: “I understand why he has to do this — to prove he’s a man. He’s afraid of his own weakness.” https://t.co/o8FQebqPb8
After his failed run for Democratic presidential candidate, @BetoORourke has turned his attention toward defending voting rights in Texas. He gives @karaswisher a status update on today’s episode of Sway. https://t.co/rVTOyEB9vj
RT @MaraGay: I wonder how many lives could have been saved if America had seen itself in New York City. https://t.co/nIjnJe6mu8
Parts of Trump’s own voting base view him more skeptically now because of his support for the vaccine, and that skepticism has furthered him talking about “freedom” from mandates. https://t.co/QBTwsEXqpa
This post-election breakdown that @TonyFabrizioGOP did of the "tribes" within the GOP is a useful reference point for understanding where Trump is w/r/t the Republican voters refusing to take the vaccine. https://t.co/dpgBjXohDO
I guess a tweet of mine got screengrabbed and posted by one of the truly big Instagram meme accounts. Now people I knew from like, Hebrew school, are reaching out to congratulate me — “I always knew you were talented,” “so insane,” etc. Puts my “accomplishments” in perspective.
yep! “reform not defund” elides the fact that police departments are largely outside of lower-case democratic control, and “reform” rests on a two-way assumption of legitimacy. can’t reform anything that doesn’t view the reformer as legitimate to begin with. https://t.co/EOrPcUqvj8
I can confirm that Post Pub is reopening within days. https://t.co/5kAgq8fGIx
Folks .... https://t.co/NBIidAmkGX
.@Liz_Cheney @deucecrew NH https://t.co/RbBdKPLOVi
NEW - Trump loses his arbitration case against Omarosa Manigault Newman alleging she violated her non-disclosure agreement with the campaign by writing her book, "Unhinged." https://t.co/IMJZYq1CjJ
Some personal news . . . https://t.co/gqqiJYHtwj
Reminder: ✨✨you don’t have to follow me ✨ 💃🏻
The FBI says homicides in the U.S. in 2020 increased nearly 30% over the previous year, the largest one-year jump since it began keeping records. Experts suggest the increase is a "unique situation," due to a confluence of factors, including the pandemic. https://t.co/Dou81yDBM5
"Dem Run City" here is a mall on Staten Island https://t.co/0pezmbsKrl
@alanfeuer Because NYT reporters prefer to say informant/source rather than CHS to avoid FBI jargon.
Happy birthday @bobhardt. Gonna get you a copy of a campaign buzz column
Oh I forgot about Navarro previous books and this excellent @arappeport joint https://t.co/3WYaOT0JIw
Peter seems to think all NYT female employees are the same. This was written by @katierogers, not me. But thank you! https://t.co/ZSppSEfQLO
Arbitration cases can't set precedent. But they can be cited by other arbitrators if they're made public. https://t.co/C5JUGzDPxV
The issue was about not wanting to transfer power and not be seen as weak. But the anecdote is a reminder of how much energy was expended on what turned out to be pretty small stuff throughout four years
This is a weird take! https://t.co/lqNW5mZXX0
From @katierogers writeup of Grisham book, the final answer to the mystery Walter Reed trip was not that Trump had a secret heart ailment or some other deep health secret; he was getting a colonoscopy and decided not to get sedated https://t.co/MG5g7wbiwJ
The meta point here after this case and another in SDNY - the NDAs that Trump has relied on for years are basically unenforceable, at a time when a former aide wrote a tell-all that comes out next week and other former aides are contemplating books https://t.co/IMJZYq1CjJ
RT @dnvolz: “Alerted to the violations by the Journal, 56 of the judges have directed court clerks to notify parties in 329 lawsuits that t…
The NDA "effectively imposes on Respondent an obligation to never say anything remotely critical of Mr. Trump, his family or his or his family members’ businesses for the rest of her life...Such a burden is certainly unreasonable.” https://t.co/IMJZYq1CjJ
Asked for comment, Trump did not reference the suit itself - one he insisted on filing as a warning shot to other former aides - and instead delivered personal attacks on Omarosa. https://t.co/IMJZYq1CjJ
The arbitrator said the NDA is basically unenforceable under NY law, overly broad and too onerous https://t.co/IMJZYq1CjJ
RT @seungminkim: She saw Trump lean toward Putin that day and tell him: “Okay, I’m going to act a little tougher with you for a few minutes…
RT @cliffordlevy: The ⁦@ACLU⁩ tweet, sent out on Sept. 18, changed Justice Ginsburg’s words, replacing each of her references to women with…
RT @AP: The FBI says homicides in the U.S. in 2020 increased nearly 30% over the previous year, the largest one-year jump since it began ke…
RT @seungminkim: Folks ....
RT @TheOnion: Wallace Shawn Emerges As Frontrunner To Replace Daniel Craig As James Bond https://t.co/61luQg3wDI https://t.co/jZrRZ0J20m
RT @alexburnsNYT: “Several senior Democrats are also hoping Biden will more forcefully weigh in on the infrastructure vote Thursday, public…
RT @bobhardt: It took the Metropolitan Opera 138 years to perform an opera by a Black composer. Here’s to Terence Blanchard, a New Orleania…
RT @igorbobic: McConnell says he got his COVID booster, calling it “an easy decision"
RT @ZekeJMiller: NEW YORK (AP) — R&B star R. Kelly convicted in sex trafficking trial after decades of allegations about sexual misconduct…
RT @succession: Tom Wambsgans. Gregory Hirsch. #Succession https://t.co/fLhwA3mNF9
RT @aseitzwald: Beto dropping oppo breadcrumbs on Mathew McConaughey! We may need Richard Linklater to moderate/direct this Gen X Texas d…
RT @ccadelago: (AP) — Just days after a South Dakota agency moved to deny her daughter’s application to become a certified real estate appr…
New ⁦@jbouie⁩, citing my paper on the risk of election subversion https://t.co/OjKrbw0yC7
former Trump press secretary: “Casual dishonesty filtered through the White House as if it were in the air conditioning system,” Grisham writes. https://t.co/5bBPUcELYi
Join us TOMORROW to discuss Tax Policy in the #BuildBackBetter Act. Get a breakdown of what’s in, what’s out, and what it all means for the country Our expert panel includes @MarcGoldwein, @RichardRubinDC, @dashching, and @AlexBrill_DC #TaxBackBetter ⤵️ https://t.co/wRePdpq65O
This, from @jbouie on Democrats ostrich-like behavior, is 💯 https://t.co/OjKrbw0yC7 https://t.co/uJ41MRECiL
Want to learn more about the risk of election subversion? See the pieces linked in my thread from earlier today: https://t.co/F46kdpTljp
#ELB: Rather Than Affirmatively Condemn John Eastman for Trying to Steal the Election, the Federalist Society “Slow-Rolled” His Departure So As to Not Look Pressured (According to David Lat) https://t.co/JWWVnHJsqb
@kelsey_snell @bresreports Bres took us all hostage with his excellent reporting.
I’m just going to room rate this backdrop as a 12/10, because you don’t want anything to distract from the perfection that is @bresreports, so a blank white wall is the only appropriate backdrop —> https://t.co/9DJVvEik4x
Nancy Pelosi is a peerless vote-counter Chuck Schumer understands his caucus Joe Biden has 90% job approval among Democrats and an instinct for common ground tough negotiations ahead but "i think we're going to land the plane," says Sen @ChrisVanHollen https://t.co/CHshCSE85d
from AP: As daughter sought state license, Noem summoned agency head https://t.co/CiOBnKEVW6
It was a matter of huge pride among us Bx HS of Science folks that Darin was a graduate. Made up for the army of slide rule nerds. https://t.co/4GTE1varxE
@RadioFreeTom @JoyAnnReid as if going to the dentist wasn't bad enough, now I have to talk to lawyers too?!
"If an enemy of the US wanted to decapitate America’s national security leadership, they could hardly do a better job than Sens. Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley have by blocking scores of top nominees" @djrothkopf only gets harsher from there https://t.co/02l5lXvnzI harsher from there:
So this happened…#CityOfAngelsWomensFilmFestival @MIArtbox @marykerry @ChrisRGibbs https://t.co/5iWEiGHZJd
Honestly @mitchellvii is coming off a bit timid here. Hard to imagine being frightened of @SebGorka unless you're a curb, a pleather vest with weak buttons, or a Der Wienerschnitzel. But then Bill was never what I'd call robust. Nice hair though. https://t.co/0T3RJuBmqD
The last paragraph here about how there’s no rhyme or reason / pattern to covid is just preposterous. I think there are varying explanations for Florida but the three low-vax, gulf coast states are en route to the top 3 in deaths per capita and it’s not one big coincidence https://t.co/VqcqicnYDw
There was a great camaraderie working at Borders in the 2000s. We were the big chain bookstore of the people - no fancy ampersand like Barnes & Noble! - down to earth. A national retail chain could still have a sort of personality, in its own way. Most of that was the people. https://t.co/2KwxMmIUef
@natfinnonE @RadioFreeTom @TheRickWilson Mobs aren’t always easy to start, but once u got one movin….
To be clear, I am a caffeine person, not a cannabis person. But maybe I do need my hearing checked. https://t.co/hDj1ruVtgx
@dubsmud @RadioFreeTom I have a smaller-town doctor friend who owns an expensive pickup truck. He’s made the same observation. He can pull up in his truck and patients see a man of the people. But If he buys a Mercedes for the same price, he’s that fancy, rich doctor. It’s weird.
@RadioFreeTom @dburbach @DDFStrand Also, none of the jobs you mention, David, except possibly accounting would have required a college degree 40 years ago. You just worked your way up. And college was still broader. “Pre-law? Pre-med? What’s the difference?”
After everything that Republicans have done - and are doing - to destroy American democracy, if you still think this is about the economy and globalization and forgotten towns and opioids, you've lost the plot.
"I talked to my attorney before I came here." Clearly, the stresses of globalization and economic anxiety have been haunting this woman ever since we elites offshored her job to China back when she was in grade school https://t.co/vjhXR5n3Lo
@RadioFreeTom WHY WON’T YOU BUY CARLA WINE? YOU’RE A MONSTER! IT’S A FINE PURRGUNDY! https://t.co/ie0Oi0t3J5 https://t.co/tVejXhi52l
At the very least, the Democrats are proving that they are not nearly organized enough to pull off that big socialist vote-rigging coup that FOX nuts are always screaming about.
This is like watching the Russian opposition bicker about who gets which office at the Duma while Putin cemented his grip on power. I never thought I'd be wishing for a more bare-knuckled Democratic Party, but here we are. https://t.co/GSBvmvdGGQ
@RadioFreeTom You also have to love that they are incapable of seeing the consequences of yelling and harassing the staff of a dental office to force them to work on her teeth. Like, I don’t want to piss off the dental hygienist before she gets to work.
@DeanxRiley @OpheliasMarbles @RadioFreeTom @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand Speaking of bad tweets, this is great fun though I couldn’t believe there was not a single tweet from @RadioFreeTom https://t.co/Pbx7qVldiT
@ericowensdc @RadioFreeTom @dburbach @DDFStrand We need employers to stop requiring college degrees for jobs that don’t require a college degree.
@MikeWMerritt @RadioFreeTom @AdrienneLaF Read the article.
@chrislhayes I love your show - you’re the smartest guy on tv - but this business of opening with you standing while the camera drifts drunkenly around is making me seasick.
@RadioFreeTom @gpgomez No. We are many.
@OpheliasMarbles @RadioFreeTom @ericowensdc @DDFStrand Hopefully. I have been shocked to learn how far into a liberal arts major you can be at some large universities while encounting nothing but multiple choice or short answer exams in textbook-based courses
@OpheliasMarbles @RadioFreeTom @ericowensdc @DDFStrand the right loves to beat up on gender/race "studies" or art history, but there are far far far more underemployed people with degrees in business, communications, hospitality, concrete management, etc than those fields
@OpheliasMarbles @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand Somewhere along the line, we convinced people that only losers don’t go to college. This was a pernicious lie fostered across the political spectrum.
@OpheliasMarbles @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand And then quit.
@RadioFreeTom @ericowensdc @DDFStrand My own extended family fits this pattern almost to cliche: my generation is almost 100% graduate schooled + moved far away, or, no college, never moved away, often unstable relationships and/or addiction, now often antivax. Nobody in between.
@dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand There is no greater resentment than people with “some college“ or a degree from a local university that prepares them to do absolutely nothing.
@ericowensdc @DDFStrand @RadioFreeTom 40 years ago there'd have been a lot more responsibility and decision making power in the hands of a manager of a local department store, vs now a WalMart manager's sphere of control and required skill level (and pay) is much lower, with more done by central IT in Bentonville
@RadioFreeTom @JMoLawre @NomineNemo @dubsmud @ericowensdc I can vouch that on the rare instances when I'm driving a truck or SUV it's because I'm in Oregon taking it down dirt roads my dad told me to stay off of. https://t.co/I0GSbuBVPP
@JMoLawre @NomineNemo @dubsmud @ericowensdc The tell is that those trucks are shiny and un-dinged and have never been used for actual work-related stuff. Just saw one in the parking lot at the local supermarket the other day; the wheels alone were worth an entire off-shored Chinese factory. It was so economically anxious.
@RadioFreeTom @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand Absolutely. My employer just added a degree program in Concrete Management. I'm pretty sure people used to learn those skills quite effectively on the job site.
@RadioFreeTom @dburbach @DDFStrand I often think of George Bailey at the old Building & Loan.
@FixSheltersNow @RadioFreeTom @glassmeg I’m sure you are asking Tom. But @davidfrum said something interesting: Trump so floods the zone with admitted scandal and crime that people are somehow bored with it.
@RadioFreeTom @glassmeg Trump’s executive orders were almost uniformly toothless. As an aside, a public university with a blanket policy against nazi speakers would be acting unconstitutionally. There’s no way any school had or has such a policy — written down.
@glassmeg @RadioFreeTom But it didn’t and the schools could and did and do refuse speakers, or accept them. Richard Spencer and Milo Y. are not speaking on campuses. They were speaking more before the order.
@JRubinBlogger @RadioFreeTom Wow. Together we really turn out the misogynist Trumpy trolls! Haven't blocked this many folks in ages!
@RadioFreeTom It often lurks within bigoted WASPs.
An unserious nation plagued by dangerous toddlers who believe they deserve clemency because hey, at least they didn't shit on anyone's desk. https://t.co/uNXoFl6XG5
@dcherring @TheRickWilson Trump said it a month ago and got booed and it's getting worse; not sure they can stop that train now. :(
I see Tom Cotton has gotten to disgracing himself.
@RadioFreeTom I keep circling back to We let Trump win in 2016 despite our Soros backing
@RadioFreeTom I WOULD JUST LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT MY TWEET HAS 314 LIKES AND COUNTING AND YOURS HAS 19
@shoutingboy @RadioFreeTom @lorikramer58 TOM WILL BE DISAPPOINTED NO MATTER WHAT IT'S HOW HE IS
Cotton knew what he was asking. He is not stupid. He was creating video for FOX. https://t.co/5dfqSQ89OU
Sen. Fischer basically saying that the problem in AFG pullout was the elected President not obeying military orders.
This was the point I was making early on: That Milley was saying he can't approve orders, but he wanted to know about them. A fine but important distinction. https://t.co/ajYiI3FVaz
"Rarely has so significant a faction in American politics behaved in a way that so directly claims the life of its own supporters," @conor64 writes: https://t.co/YrGarwG1zQ
@RadioFreeTom @Sarcher Even if she had worn a mask and behaved, the second she mentioned speaking to her lawyer, probably any doctor or dentist would be looking for reasons to refuse her service.
@RadioFreeTom @JRubinBlogger @joanwalsh Also it's not really so much a choice to convert as it is going from being ignorant of the teachings of one Church to parroting what they hear in another.
@RadioFreeTom “Mack the Knife” is my go to Karaoke choice and I have video with a live band in Tokyo for receipts.
@RadioFreeTom Do you have your tuxedo on?
@ericowensdc @RadioFreeTom @IT_not_real @mtbguy1 I agree with a lot of this. Even passions can be real work. I love working w ppl but will never learn to love 4 a.m. pages. :(
@ericowensdc @mtbguy1 @RadioFreeTom … where they live, what they eat, where the kids go to school, and where they take vacation. (New Yorker Writer vs local Auto Dealership Franchise owner.)
@RadioFreeTom @joero3 I'd expect nothing less. After all, you're not a farmer
@RadioFreeTom Please ask Carla what her PayPaw account number is.
@ericowensdc @RadioFreeTom @IT_not_real @Ondine_MD @mtbguy1 Yep. And now we have thousands of film school graduates who think we should forgive their student debt.
@RadioFreeTom Thanks T-Nick. I’m not always on my own best behavior. And ever since you criticized Antony Blinken’s socks, I’ve felt you should up your hosiery game.
@MattWinfough @RadioFreeTom You could call the cat sidekick... Pussy Galore.
@RadioFreeTom Not being able to do a convincing Russian accent didn’t stop this man. Go live your dream. https://t.co/TCOFE6ao4z
Man, I got into a lot of heads with one book https://t.co/3pH05nessd
This makes Obama's "I'll have more flexibility after the election" seem like savage diplomacy, but at this point, there could be photos of Trump giving Putin a foot massage and Trump supporters would explain why it was a brilliant move. https://t.co/gmiOQ64Fei
Milley and Austin on somewhat different pages about the “credibility” issue
Meanwhile, as Milley defends trying to keep the country safe, this is the guy who was president https://t.co/V0z2iyl9mL
RT @AndrewDesiderio: Wow — this line was not in Milley’s prepared remarks: “I am not qualified to determine the mental health of the presi…
RT @PDShinkman: "I know, I am certain, that President Trump did not intend to attack the Chinese." Cites "concerning" intelligence that Chi…
RT @AaronBlake: Milley: "With respect to the Chinese calls ... [they] were coordinated before and after, with Secretary Esper and Acting Se…
"With the knowledge and oversight" of the civilians. https://t.co/p7YZu7MedT
RT @laraseligman: He issues a stark warning that "a reconstituted Al Qaeda or ISIS with aspirations to attack the United States is a very r…
RT @DanLamothe: "I have no illusions who we are dealing with," Gen. Milley says of the Taliban.
RT @PDShinkman: Whoa. Now Milley confirms previous reports that he received an unclassified, unsigned order to withdraw all U.S. forces fro…
RT @laraseligman: BREAKING: Milley just now acknowledges reporting that on Nov 11 he received an unclassified signed order from Trump direc…
Important point here. Milley planting a flag on his advice. https://t.co/ItIGX5uRAV
RT @laraseligman: Milley now going into depth about Trump admin efforts. Says under the Doha agreement, the Taliban failed to honor nearly…
Milley making the point (rightly) that preventing further 9/11s was the mission.
RT @AaronBlake: Inhofe today: "We went from 'we we will never negotiate with terrorists' to 'we must negotiate with terrorists.' " Inhofe…
RT @AaronBlake: Interesting from Lloyd Austin: "We need to consider some uncomfortable truths ... [including] that the [2020 Taliban deal]…
In fairness SECDEF says Bagram wouldn't have been that useful - but mostly because it would have to be defended, and then...well, back to "that meant staying at war," which seems to me to be a hand-wave.
Circular reasoning on Bagram, imo. "Defending it would have meant defending it, which POTUS said we would not do, so we did not do that."
RT @laraseligman: Austin now defending the decision to turn over Bagram air field to the Afghans in early July. Read my deep dive on that…
RT @qikipedia: "When a man loves cats, I am his friend and comrade, without further introduction." MARK TWAIN https://t.co/v6HR9sltLR
RT @BillKristol: "Perhaps you were under the impression that the political class was comprised of serious people who recognize that we are…
RT @davidfrum: Latest in @TheAtlantic For all the attention on how Trump might try to steal the 2024 elections in swing states - if price…
I was robbed https://t.co/IIdfY1VAWA
@OpheliasMarbles @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand Communications has become a default major in a lot of schools.
@MikeWMerritt @AdrienneLaF MySpace did not have a quarter of the planet on it
@Sarcher Yes, it was very common in my factory town to indicate that you had spoken to your lawyer before routine medical procedures
@ericowensdc @dburbach @DDFStrand I say this institution is not necessary!
@jeffaleon It doesn’t work that way. Remember, millions of dollars were poured into the attempt to create liberal talk radio. It failed. You are confusing cause and effect.
@Real_MrBill @ericowensdc Guys, you are speculating here but it is unnecessary. He literally disobeyed a direct order and then challenged his command in public to arrest him. There was no alternative to that. I’m amazed it didn’t happen sooner.
@ericowensdc @dburbach @DDFStrand I was going to say, the overproduction of college and graduate degrees created cutthroat competition for jobs that used to be perfectly acceptable high school diploma jobs and still are
@jeffaleon I wish there were a more interesting answer
@ericowensdc @drhpa33 In the story. He literally challenged his command to arrest him. They obliged him.
@dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand All of this is true and I agree with it. But there is also a problem that college has become the default setting, and four years or five years of college does not prime you to go back to your hometown. It’s the worst of all worlds: not prepared to do anything, and nowhere to go.
@drhpa33 @ericowensdc If anyone had bothered to read the story, he was put in the brig for disobeying a direct order. The military does not take kindly to that at any rank but especially not in a senior officer.
@ericowensdc @SollySollinger Disobeyed a direct order.
@shoutingboy CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
I have the best followers and also I hate them https://t.co/O6fLpyg5Hp
Yikes. https://t.co/ogyxCVHsOb
Enjoy! https://t.co/Cey9Gf63DH
@FousekMichael @RonFilipkowski Whoa.
@gpgomez @PattyArquette *backspaces a joke that would haunt me forever*
@PattyArquette @gpgomez https://t.co/x0Q0H55xRI
It's @AdrienneLaF vs #Facebook and it's 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/AuVCb1m23Q
@bhandel58 A fat, old Jack Ryan, yes
@ChrisO_wiki @MattWinfough IT WAS RIGHT THERE and you were the first one to it
@gpgomez @CharlesPPierce IF HE CAN REMEMBER TO PICK YOU UP
This would be a version even I would watch https://t.co/Ij3VKI5hdi
@MarVistaWriter @domjgordon I wanted to maybe snap you back a little closer to political reality, but if you post in this TL, you get what this diner serves.
@MarVistaWriter @domjgordon I just thought it was easier to get right to the point.
@MarVistaWriter @domjgordon "Republicans have been planning this for decades" is ridiculous. "Democrats are thinking only of the future" is also ridiculous.
@sdrose @bigolewannabe @alice_radley @gpgomez https://t.co/6PXcse8cxg
@AnneNotation I hate that you're right
I already tell my colleagues that they "appear with the tedious inevitability of an unloved season." I think I'd look fab in full Drax. https://t.co/n34N0DxJkW
@MattWinfough The cat could sell it, but Blofeld cornered that shtick
I just can't do that convincing of a British accent, so I took myself out of the running https://t.co/1ulQufqmLl
@JRubinBlogger @joanwalsh And yet hyper-conservative Catholics will let that fastball go right past them - or worse, have become like the political Evangelicals who don't bother with the whole "church and belief" part.
This is the part that I find incomprehensible. How you do live with yourself after turning 180 just to see if you can go to Oz? | Lying for Power: A Wyoming Parable in Two Parts  https://t.co/51duhOMD9y via @BulwarkOnline
@gpgomez @alice_radley THE RAIN YOU MAKE IN MY SOUL NEVER STOPS
@ScotchTrousdale Dunno. I don't see notifications from anyone who doesn't follow.
"And also, Tucker, seeing as a represent a massively Catholic country, if you could lay off that anti-Catholic shit until my segment is over, that'd be great" https://t.co/tZpH3ek1qZ
I couldn't fit into the jeans I wore at 21 when I was 23, and I am calling bullshit on these so-called "experts" and their "science" and "facts" https://t.co/2alX67XsrS
@ChicNHip Pretty sure me checking in on Tucker isn't the issue here. You run your own Twitter account, I'll run this one.
@IceIsMyVice @Marmel Just imagine how much I could raise for charity with that one song
This is a mistake. Never ignore what millions of people are watching. Keep yourself informed. https://t.co/hr07Bo5xgj
@ChicNHip To make you ask stupid questions.
@Marmel I once did “867-5309” with a live band. True story.
Just when you thought he would stick to white supremacy, he’s decided to go in for some anti-Catholicism while he’s at it, likening the president getting a booster shot to “people who take communion every day“ https://t.co/j7eEncdDVZ
RT @TheAgenda: "This is what happens when you get a bored middle class that is fed a steady diet of propaganda about how they are the downt…
@steven_metz Engaging them convinces them that they are right
RT @ConnieRR4: Truth by @RadioFreeTom Trump is not ruining democracy, we are. And it's been anguishing to confront: Tom Nichols https://t.c…
@ericowensdc @dubsmud And inane.
@ericowensdc @FixSheltersNow @glassmeg @davidfrum Yep
@glassmeg @ericowensdc Same reason he did most things: performative bullshit
@rbdoeker @Timodc Because we’re so clear and objective?
@stannieholt @mattski_o Yes. Excellent book.
I am listening to Bobby Darin because one should do so on a regular basis.
RT @dubsmud: @ericowensdc @RadioFreeTom A Chevy 2500 High Country costs the same as a 5 series BMW. Guess which driver is a blue collar, fl…
This is the way to my heart https://t.co/WulaCg2peE
Her anxiety about globalization the offshoring of manufacturing is palpable https://t.co/MHQqNGrrtk
@ericowensdc @glassmeg This is such a weird argument. Trump's "order" did nothing.
RT @ebombicino: Inequality. Globalization. Deindustrialization. The entire business model of social media. There’s been a lot of reasons th…
@JMoLawre @sdrose @IT_not_real @ericowensdc @Ondine_MD @mtbguy1 The idea that you have to have passion for your work or you get to hate everyone else is a modern invention.
"The racial gaps — while still existing — have narrowed. The partisan gap, however, continues to be enormous." - @DLeonhardt https://t.co/uyRY8l2Fpo https://t.co/72qO9jXeZc
@mtbguy1 @ericowensdc @JMoLawre @IT_not_real @Ondine_MD If by popular, you mean "peaked in 11th grade," okay
@JoeReynolds2020 @ericowensdc @TastelessAlex "Those black people and their rap music (that my son keeps buying)"
@DSSebastian1 @ericowensdc @IT_not_real @Ondine_MD @mtbguy1 "Do what you love and the money will follow" is usually not true, and "Follow your bliss" is the kind of hare-brained advice you can only give in an affluent society.
@ericowensdc @IT_not_real @Ondine_MD @mtbguy1 Yes. This is why I keep saying that affluence and living standards enabled our resentment.
@IT_not_real @Ondine_MD @ericowensdc @mtbguy1 I didn't feel any sense of job security until well into my 40s; the thing that causes resentment, I suspect, is that "elite" jobs provide more psychic income even if they pay less and are less stable in many ways.
RT @dandrezner: Perspective | How scared should we be about 2024? https://t.co/1nEMatvHNH
@peetapeisreal It's not a big deal. Presidents get colds and the flu, they sleep, they have medical issues, just like everyone else.
RT @Acosta: ICYMI: Fired Fox News editor Chris Stirewalt was fired for calling Arizona correctly. On yesterday’s show he reacted to the res…
@ericowensdc @TastelessAlex Greater levels of contact with people we don’t happen to like
The pedestal I place @RadioFreeTom on is so high he must get nosebleeds. I don't have my own copy of "Our Own Worst Enemy" yet but I read his stuff. (I taught at Framingham State U while I lived in East Boston.) https://t.co/hgp2sgdLF2
@RadioFreeTom @MaryMhc1988 I am just finishing chapter 4 (audiobook) and surprisingly I am more open to considering this argument than I was when I started. When is the book club discussion? Could you open a weekly thread where we tell you why we disagree & ask questions? We could show proof of purchase
@OpheliasMarbles @RadioFreeTom @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand I was a college advisor for a short time in the 1980s. Once, a kid who wanted to be a business major, but couldn't take any of the major courses because he didn't pass the 9th grade algebra prerequisite, said to me, "You mean I have to take all these bullshit courses?!"
Really missing Iraq today. Fascinating country—I hope it becomes a place that’s safe to travel to in the near future. I’d love to go back… https://t.co/7x6oVePHTm
@RadioFreeTom Are you certain I'm not 10 years your junior? Bobby Darrin? Any thoughts on Frankie Avalon, Annette Funacello?
@RadioFreeTom I'm gonna have to tweet a LOT more 80's movie quotes/gifs! ;) https://t.co/SQoGVUH3Es
@RadioFreeTom @ericowensdc @drhpa33 As the son of a Marine officer and a veteran myself, I don’t have a lot of sympathy for those that undermine the chain of command.
@RadioFreeTom Clearing the way for Jessie Plemons
@AnneNotation @ericowensdc @RadioFreeTom @IT_not_real @Ondine_MD @mtbguy1 People don't realize that chasing a pecking order like that is unhealthy as opposed to being content with the current one you have. Every time they move up into a new pecking order, everything gets reset and they are relatively poor again.
@sdrose @RadioFreeTom @alice_radley @gpgomez "Girls, please. This is a book reading. People paid for tickets. Go back to the car then we'll get ice cream after it's over." "TWO SCOOPS AND WAFFLE CONES OR NO DEAL". "Fine. Just go."
@alice_radley @RadioFreeTom @gpgomez In the spy novels by Trevanian, one of the running gags was that the agency hired spies who looked like Wallace bec they were against type. However, they were so consistently hired that they were easily identifiable
@RadioFreeTom Putting my resume together now: https://t.co/baQtGQ2aCg
@RadioFreeTom 🐈 https://t.co/iAPqmgK02h
@RadioFreeTom Saw you on @tvo tonight can’t wait to read the book
@BordewickSteve @RadioFreeTom Minions. Tom has minions.
@gpgomez @RadioFreeTom I'M WITH MONEY DAD ON THIS ONE 😬
@gpgomez @RadioFreeTom I liked Tom's, but not yours. I'm trying to tip the scales. 😉
@RadioFreeTom it’s here!!! ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ https://t.co/K0YafyZlyu
@RadioFreeTom "Tom, we need you for one last mission." "I'm retired, you know that."
@RadioFreeTom Who knows, maybe they feel it's time to turn James Bond from action spy to an academic with an awesome cat sidekick.
@ericowensdc @RadioFreeTom We had a main street anti-vax protest in Sturbridge yesterday.
@MostlyOverThere @RadioFreeTom I’m from western CT and it’s pervasive there. Trump flags, “unmask our kids,” conspiracy BS, etc. I’ve come to realize how easily duped by nonsense people a really are
@RadioFreeTom @BillyPilgrim26 @OpheliasMarbles @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand Another pernicious lie was that having a "desk job" was something to be desired.
@RadioFreeTom @dburbach @ericowensdc @DDFStrand With a mountain of debt.
@RadioFreeTom Sure Tom. Tell us it had nothing, NOTHING to do with the fact that Act I, Scene IV, was a meeting with an agent considering flipping to our side, but Bond had to, over the course of a long dinner, eat a Vindaloo and pretend he adored an Aloo Paratha while cajoling him to flip.
@RadioFreeTom @bhandel58 I sense an opportunity. Russell Crowe playing Tom playing Bond. Instant cult classic. That'll have the British accent covered, but we'll have to sacrifice some sex appeal.
@RadioFreeTom @mattski_o David Brooks is an easy target these days but his analysis in “Bobos in Paradise: The New Upper Class” of how/why the markers of wealth shifted still makes sense to me. Basically, it’s not displaying sheer wealth but education/taste/principles (which take wealth to acquire).
@ZTPetrizzo Q on Q violence. You hate to see it. Maybe not hate exactly.
@RadioFreeTom Damn, that's like old school, 1920s KKK bigotry! How low can this guy go?
@ericowensdc @SollySollinger @RadioFreeTom Either he goes to the brig, or his direct superiors take a loss of confidence in their command. Pretty simple
@RadioFreeTom Just PayPal'd for one, better you than Amaxon. Appreciate the consideration. Can't wait to read it.
Republicans just voted to drive the United States into default. Now let's see how many news accounts convey this basic fact clearly and without any jargon or obfuscation. When very few do, you'll understand why Republicans believe they can get away with this in the first place.
After soiling himself with Trumpism, Glenn Youngkin is working to erase the stain. Youngkin is in furious walkback mode after refusing to say he would have certified Biden's win. Don't let him spin away all the footsie he's already played with the big lie: https://t.co/vnS4LGojWE
Even better: https://t.co/ABIqKjhhcn
Here @RoKhanna seems to suggest progressives might be prepared to vote on the infrastructure bill if the party unites behind a framework for reconciliation. Points out that Manchin/Sinema must to agree to it: https://t.co/66D75zyYsZ Supports the first scenario in this reading: https://t.co/G63gJdayr7
@ryangrim she did indeed say this
Dem outrage is met with savvy coverage that paints GOP depravity and recklessness as a dilemma *for Dems* while marveling at how politically shrewd Mitch is being. No more. Time to put Republicans in the role of sputtering with outrage. cc @jayrosen_nyu https://t.co/EUuZU3oBQ7 https://t.co/B25tOPzy9y
Right now, Dems are searching for *another* procedural trick on the debt limit. This is absurd! Kill it already! It can be done in reconciliation, by simply tying it to the debt. This solves Dems' substantive *and* political problems. Here's how: https://t.co/EUuZU3oBQ7 https://t.co/7t5lrVjASY
The right answer to this, I think, is to make it all about Manchin and Sinema. If House centrists want BIF to pass, then they should help persuade Manchin and Sinema to persuasively endorse a good reconciliation framework and to allay all doubts that they'll support it later. https://t.co/OR16iD1jaf
@ass_deans More efficient to give cash.
Three years ago at the 1st AEA 5K I finished last, 37:48 This year, I’ve lost 60 pounds so far. Today, I ran an initial pre-training run of 31:38. goal by race day is to be another 20 pounds lighter, three minutes faster, and not injured. Thanks @causalinf and @dbergstresser https://t.co/tyDcQgzBA2
Attn students: The word for passing statutory taxes onto other parties is called “tax incidence.” Not absurd. Perhaps unfortunate. Definitely happens (hint: elasticities matter.) Understanding potential unintended consequences of a policy is key to good policy making. https://t.co/JhCsUh9X5y
@JustinWolfers @BruceJPreston One of the great economic lessons of the past--oh, let's say half a century--is that what goes on in financial markets often has huge effects on the real economy. I guess some folks still haven't got the memo. Perhaps because they still converse via memos?
Yeah, that's not right. There's definitely a cost to using resources. That's definitely true even if you raise enough offsetting revenues that debt doesn't rise. https://t.co/xBaNe5Rvpp
You know how to tell if someone "gets it"? It's really easy for them to explain "it" to anyone. Even me https://t.co/7RvrowboYV
@JustinWolfers @profholden Completely agree. Silly stuff. Reflects the complete absence of a coherent framework to think about monetary policy.
Yeah, but when evaluating policies what really matters is where the numbers are *relative to the counterfactual*. If you don't specify a counterfactual, you're not saying anything about the effects of school re-opening. https://t.co/CqSs921a0A
It turns out that upon reflection, the Fed officials who were actively trading individual stocks in an economy they directly influence and have heaps of inside info about, see an ethical problem. Both Kaplan and Rosengren are resigning. https://t.co/IonGgBZAlX
RT @charles_gaba: Frame This. https://t.co/NSYn9dDof7
@BruceJPreston @profholden A simple rule of thumb is that when you use more than one analogy, it's to cover up for the fact that you don't quite understand your own argument. This one is incoherent in almost every paragraph.
While searching for something else, I stumbled upon this. Started reading and thought, 'this is terrific.' Scrolled up to see the byline, and of course...it's Jamie Galbraith. https://t.co/IFwsiMPGXG
Taught my first class at UoC today and despite the time (8am on a Monday morning) turnout and engagement were great! Its so good to have the campus buzzing with students again and everyone enjoying the fall sunshine. #UChicagoFirstDayofClass https://t.co/tWYpVYJjFd
Voltaire on war and nationalism: “It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets.”
fox has really got to stop using excel's y-axis defaults https://t.co/9OLAufLmIg
"For sure, Marx thought that wages were unlikely to be high (even if he admitted that they can increase with development), but even with high wages, you do have exploitation. Exploitation disappears only if profits are zero, at which point capitalism pretty much disappears too." https://t.co/9zUJAQNF1b
"It’s very rare that “inequality” appears in Marx's writing. Moreover, and this is more of a philosophical issue, in Marx’s critique of capitalism, inequality is not the main or even an important reason for his critique." https://t.co/9zUJAQNF1b
If we’re now down two Fed officials what the hell is that going to do to the December dot plot?
@benconomics Seems like an appropriate topic for me and my 10yo - do you get to kill rival dealers?
Capitalism (1) promises technological progress to eliminate exhausting work, yet workers remain emotionally and physically exhausted, and (2) promises to out-perform all other systems in providing food, clothing, shelter, healthcare & education yet fails to do so for millions...
Apologies for the non-econ tweet: But I want to thank @causalinf for inspiring me to start Noom and lose weight. I've neglected my health since I started my PhD, gaining 70 lbs in 7 years. That's hard to make public. Here's to committing to changing things!
Interested in being a visiting scholar in aging and health research at NBER? Look here. You needn't be an NBER affiliate to apply! https://t.co/bi329g88Fz
«Aber die Intensivstationen sind ja gar nicht ausgelastet…». Einer der grausligsten, zynischsten Sätze seit Beginn der Pandemie. Die Realität, in vielen erschütternden Details: https://t.co/loXJDIeR4Q
It's weird how climate is the biggest issue ever and the reconciliation bill is the biggest climate bill ever, but the coverage is all about price tag, offsets, progressives vs. centrists, timing with infrastructure/debt ceiling, everything but whether DC acts on climate or not.
Folks I have an imposter. @TheStqlwart. As far as I can tell, the person is anti #MTFC. Please report. Thank you.
@singhabhi @lwantchekon @DinaPomeranz @HaroonBhorat @restatjournal Expect a referee request from me soon!!! Thanks for the lovely thoughts. I have to say I am completely loving editing @restatjournal!! I learn so much and get to see so many different papers, its really such an honor and privilege to be able to do this!
@ABABankers I have long resisted those who seek to demonize bankers and impose punitive and unreasonable regulations. I will continue to do so. But the ABA s attitude here helps me understand those who condemn the industry
The @ABABankers attack on tax information reporting is disingenuous demagoguery. Tax compliance relies not just on going after cheaters but on universal reporting thru W-2s, and 1099s, including on interest. https://t.co/8QpKtyNClt
Either “big houses are good, actually” or “there is overwhelming evidence that visible police presence is an effective crime reduction strategy.” https://t.co/tdHXe5V7QH
Genuinely a secret desire to be a political scientist is one of the strangest accusations I’ve ever faced in my life. I did speak on an APSA panel once. https://t.co/OMGt7peX1n
@Noahpinion I am with you on this one. At some point last year someone wrote about how disposable masks where going to be difficult to recycle and cause environmental hazards or something silly like that. Read the room, people.
In any case, after looking through the history of how the aerosol/airborne debate actually went down, versus what the textbooks said, I think it's really useful to look at history at times with fresh eyes. Did we really know this, or did we conclude something and kept asserting?
I highly recommend that you read the paper, read the substack, watch the video and ask @SCarter611 and @AbigailWozniak questions about the study, as it's got many fascinating elements and I think a lot to teach us abt both people but also our models too. 18/n
No, people in the US, Switzerland is not Sweden 😜 Ht @ThBenkoe https://t.co/JjM2448cDP https://t.co/iGIndE7opx
RT @mjKolly: Carmen Karde hat uns von ihrem Alltag auf den Intensivstationen erzählt. Davon, – wie es dort den Covid-19-Patientinnen geht,…
RT @DanRather: One of the problems with how politics is covered is  many have forgotten that the purpose of politics is policy, as in solvi…
@Cutler_econ But a US citizen or greencard holder
@hansi_voigt Weil die AFD als faschistoide Partei gegründet wurde, die SVP aber als ursprünglich konservative Partei zur faschistoiden P umgebaut wurde.
Ich suche in Twitter nach #Baerbock, aber es kommen nur Tweets zu Laschet. Kann mir das bitte mal jemand erklären? https://t.co/DjKh97ucae
Florian is an example of intellectual curiosity and humility https://t.co/pA3ZC2882y
👇🏽 https://t.co/xHBjzpVyc4
☝🏼 https://t.co/CHgUUt2Xz6
Support for the Black Lives Matter movement declined between June and September 2020, but has remained stable since. https://t.co/Yzb1cBpoVi https://t.co/sRUixQToHa
wHy iSn’T pOweLL ADdreSsing thE feD’s eTHics ? https://t.co/EPpS0LRMDP
@ModeledBehavior This is the most Lancaster thing I have ever heard
The AER and QJE are quite similar to me. Very in your face, no frills. I do like all caps blocked letters of QJE titles and names. The AER is probably my least favorite, but only because it just feels very modern and without a lot to say for it except "I'm a journal article." https://t.co/oj3KKvoKlv
I have to give props to Restud, but putting that aside, what I like about REstud is how many different font sizes there are on the first page. I also like the positioning about the article information at the top left. Some journals could learn from that. 3/n https://t.co/v6spjNdflC
I am a huge fan of the minimalism and font of the JPE though. It's definitely one of my favorite fonts the more I think about it. I love how clean the authors' names always look below that thin line. 2/n https://t.co/z3rcudPbBF
I really like the distinctive front page of many economics journals articles. Here's a few nice ones. First, there's the @J_HumanResource . I like the indentation of the first line, the dark thick black horizontal line at the top and the lining of the abstract, plus the font. 1 https://t.co/NLXLlI2mWO
Wow -- major resource for the Stata community. Even includes matrix completion with nuclear norm regularization. FYI @Susan_Athey . https://t.co/g8LGDNEKeQ
Remote work innovation or no? https://t.co/NC2nQ5z7L3
Great seminar today @EIEF_Rome 1st in person seminar since 2019. I’ve enjoyed zoom the last 18 months, but definitely prefer in-person. More engaging, discussions afterwards, &c. And dinner in Rome is 👌 But there was some “skill depreciation”…couldn’t hook up the projector😂 https://t.co/Fs2B82J4aM
It's pretty obvious who's face should be on the trillion dollar coin IYKYK https://t.co/1IJn6itgyk
i would simply not fire someone based on a 30 second clip posted by the satanic rituals airbnb guy
@econhist_allday @ModeledBehavior There's no higher recognition than having someone read your dissertation and say it's quite important 😂
Lael Brainard, a favorite of progressive groups to replace Fed Chair Powell & candidate for the central bank’s top regulatory job, said the US has fallen behind other countries in preparing the financial sector to deal w/the consequences of climate change https://t.co/LZJTysWRgx
When your daughter asks you for an ice-cream… https://t.co/H3yV7W2wmV
@michaelsderby https://t.co/gVgsk8nJtM
@BrianCAlbrecht @causalinf The man is a walking, tweeting spillover effect
@BrianCAlbrecht @causalinf @causalinf inspired me too. 25lbs lighter as a result!
The rapid testing failure, while likely less impactful than the vaccines failures, is somehow so much more infuriating for its sheer bloody-mindedness. It is the sharpest example I’ve seen of the public health tendency to make the perfect the enemy of the good.
@ATabarrok Yep, I saw Tyler’s link to it. One of the most extraordinary public statements by a public health official I’ve ever seen. Yet people just lap it up unquestioningly. It is infuriating. My take on it yesterday: https://t.co/bMtHnchvU9
“We promise to stop being stupid morons in 1 month”
@Claudia_Sahm Thanks, Claudia! I think it would be better to send people to these two blog posts, which lay things out a little more specifically: https://t.co/APy98yjPm9 https://t.co/ELhshjS77E
Hearty congratulations and a tribute to the amazing work of Rukmini Banerji and @Pratham_India and @asercentre https://t.co/H6zTq5lxnG
If progressives kill the infrastructure bill, they'll keep lead in the drinking water of millions of marginalized people. And they'll starve trains and buses of funding all across America. And they'll show Dems can't govern. DON'T DO THOSE THINGS. https://t.co/elVn2hsp9I
“We should let kids vote” is one of my pet ideas, sad to see it’s literally the least popular thing they could think of.
https://t.co/Ihq0kn6y7g https://t.co/ZKnu5a5ike
There is a lot of discussion right now about expensive natural gas in the US. While higher gas prices could ultimately help reduce emissions and encourage fuel switching, in the near-term it will result in a lot more idle coal capacity coming back online: https://t.co/KhXBs9bOQR https://t.co/gWNIhGaafa
I know we have a lot of work to do in broadening and diversifying our field, but @AereOrg has shown a commitment to doing that work. I'm grateful to be a part of that effort. It's a great community and will be even stronger and richer when it reflects more voices. 2/2
I joined @AereOrg frankly because I was going to my first AERE conference, back in Asheville, NC. I found a great community in AERE - so much talent but so warm, so serious in their work but so adventurous and fun. I found it intimidating at first but quickly welcoming. 1/2 https://t.co/eKPGK4oy87
Conservatives love to make their whole brand Facts and Logic and then insist that giving people money won’t make them not poor
New post from @Noahpinion makes sense to me. Curious if there are folks who thoughtfully disagree? cc @saikatc @SeanMcElwee @nataliefoster https://t.co/eDofV3riKS
@Noahpinion That we know of.
@MaxMurrayShow @PolicyShill @russellmz @Noahpinion @tmychow There are real challenges to single parenthood we can't replace with government, but we can absolutely make sure those challenges aren't compounded by material scarcity. https://t.co/braHje0IYU
A deep dive into the mechanics of the world's most indebted real estate company https://t.co/1pfvWX69CK
Why is South Korea the only country that seems to be able to keep moving down the learning curve for nuclear power? In every other country, it's been getting *more* expensive to build nuclear power plants over time. https://t.co/95prnhtXJI
The y-axis here is a chart crime https://t.co/3tOSphxJDB
The US spent $145B to rebuild Afghanistan's economy, more than on the Marshall plan. It was a failure. GDP stopped growing once troops began to leave, and there's no sustainable pvt sector to support infrastructure it built. By @SuneEngel & @JMitchellWSJ https://t.co/GH3994HPed https://t.co/S44XJzzLEE
I’ll take any two of @Claudia_Sahm, @drlisadcook, @IvanTheK, @mark_dow to replace Rosengren and Kaplan.
@jdcmedlock Clearly someone has not compared the fonts and margins.
Tonight‘s the first night when you can see a container ship out in front of the house. Two, actually. We are 50 miles south of the port of Long Beach. It’s not getting better.
@TBPInvictus @Claudia_Sahm @drlisadcook @IvanTheK Will only come back from California if I get to run the PPT
Powell is asked if the inflation we're seeing is broader and more structural than earlier in the year. "Yes, I think it's fair to say that it is." Supply bottlenecks "have not only not gotten better, they've actually gotten worse." He points to ships parked off the port of L.A.
I sincerely appreciate both Robert Kaplan and Eric Rosengren stepping down. it’s a hard to do and a decision that serves the credibility of the Fed. thank you.
An American melting pot in which both White and Black people are minor players is incredibly interesting, because it allows us to observe which things about American culture go beyond our traditional racial divide -- and thus envision the future of an integrated, mixed America.
I'm very interested in the parts of California that are mixed Asian-Hispanic. These regions represent a form of racial integration that simply doesn't correspond to the traditional Black-White pattern. For example, check out the southern part of San Francisco: https://t.co/ULaI4gwhtW
There's an entire shelf in your local library of 00s books explaining how Wal-Mart is going to eat the rest of the economy. https://t.co/zumtCyvaWK
@Noahpinion The problem is our default position is to think the absolute worst of our fellow Americans, their personal situations and their motives and foist a huge heaping helping of victim blaming upon them
everyone who is pushing for the Fed to be a better Fed, let’s give three cheers to @michaelsderby … no one at the Fed was reading the financial disclosure statements. he did and reported on it. thank you! https://t.co/dzxknXolFd
I just really strongly feel that I should have tenure. Give it to me.
Yes. YES! https://t.co/1q0mxYUkxQ
When it comes to assessing an individual’s risk of dying from COVID, age may be a more significant determinant than vaccination status. https://t.co/fZVVijv34P
"If you treat your city like a suburb, then it’ll have the demographics of a suburb." via @Noahpinion: https://t.co/ByEEepyD2R
One day our grandchildren will ask us, how did you cope with this pandemic back then, when one in 500 people around you died, and all we'll have to say is well, we got used to it. https://t.co/VZBIqPtVfU
@a_fad_es @Noahpinion reconciliation is gonna happen anyways and moderates are gonna have the same bargaining positions
Wtf he found the Gödel statement of the Midwit Meme axiom system https://t.co/cU4iKssfxg
Poll after poll makes it clear: The majority of Americans overwhelmingly support my Build Back Better Agenda. Let’s get it done and deliver for the American people. https://t.co/uptz12TQmP
@Noahpinion @realchrisrufo He's a perfectly reasonable fellow.
My latest for Pull Request! @realchrisrufo on Critical Race Theory and what drives him in the one-man media war that's pissing off everybody. https://t.co/Tbk6ZEsuxp
Saw this and was transported back to the Sixties, when powdered drink mix for kids was just casually racist https://t.co/X50JBsEI0f
Now that the public debate has begun to turn against them, the NIMBYs are focusing less on their bad policy arguments and more on attacking YIMBYs. It won't work. https://t.co/HOBSl9dSB6
@ModeledBehavior Typically, capitalists couldn't even let workers have a month to themselves, had to put Capital day in September
@garrytan I wonder if the doomsday scenario for deepfakes isn’t some sort of forged political opposition research as currently posited but rather short-form videos of say Elon Musk with analogous intent to the spammy cryptocurrency reply tweets.
Tucker Carlson: All the Christians are disappearing!!! https://t.co/0QPjQr3ZGN
I should sell a coffee table book that is just terrible graphs from Fox News https://t.co/8UxWfajlX4
@MaxMurrayShow @PolicyShill @jdcmedlock @Noahpinion https://t.co/aopWLpGZos "...the change in Social Security benefits between 1967 and 2000 suggests that the increase in benefits can explain all of the 17 percentage point decline in poverty that occurred during this period."
like man insane clown posse is great https://t.co/YYT8YLNodt
@AlecStapp 77% = enthusiastically Christian 65% = Hail Satan
Shut (and I cannot emphasize this enough here) up. https://t.co/5IDA6G4vdv
https://t.co/vjflZG6L5a https://t.co/XlXoxfEemq
Sad to have my grandfather pass away this weekend. He was a US Army vet who served in Germany during the Korean Era. He also retired from the Salt Lake Police Department after a full career. He taught me to fish, hike, and love the beauty of southern Utah.
I really think progressives have badly undersold the virtues of the BIB when trying to hold it hostage, so futilely, to coerce Manchin and Sinema into a more aggressive reconciliation bill than they support. It's a good bill. I'd vote for it without reservations. https://t.co/EfRCUzi4l6
Asking the people who are like “but what about battery disposal? Or lithium mining? Or desert tortoises who lose .5% of their habitat to solar farms” to consider that there is, in fact, a difference between good and bad things https://t.co/kQbV0vxSUt
don't get it twisted yall https://t.co/MhcGWS7VHz
BREAKING: American Siblings Barred From Leaving China for 3 Years Return to U.S. with @chubailiang https://t.co/PkERVOUSm7
@Noahpinion Seems like most of these areas are in the suburbs now
@conorsen Yes @Noahpinion will be great
@Noahpinion Weird how human trafficking doesn't even make the list and yet is used to justify all kinds of bullshit
It's twice as good as the Bible https://t.co/ky5i8NGkyy
vivid and to the point #synesthesia https://t.co/lf05d8oMOL
@Noahpinion weebs posting their Ws
@Noahpinion or is WoT just Folsom Street Fair fanfic
@Noahpinion You're right; this is a hostage situation where the hostage is either non-corporeal, or is actively belching carbon into the sky.
@Noahpinion https://t.co/S3zIN5gehM
“That’s right.” https://t.co/LdSfkbgDwo https://t.co/lUD8JUeZGz
@bainbridge_dk @Noahpinion How could any reasonable person object to "All Lives Matter?" But a lot of "activists" do.
TAKE THE W! https://t.co/XzBS6REY4E
@Noahpinion Tells you something about SF's moderate/progressive divide too
how is cost of housing not even on this list? https://t.co/wbcGKyUqxm
@Noahpinion Yeah take your own advice 👇 https://t.co/bhG3BADtrY
@Noahpinion But sir, the batteries are pRoBLeMaTic.
Oh you think you've got a housing bubble? That's cute. China's housing bubble would eat yours for breakfast https://t.co/rfN2G1YlxA w @Noahpinion @anjani_trivedi @foxjust and more
@Noahpinion Some white Tankies would have been fascists had they jumped down the right rabbit hole instead of the left one.
@Noahpinion Totally get the appeal of being told new things you can feel bad about. My family had a standing Sunday morning appointment with an expert for exactly this when I was growing up. Seemed like a good frequency.
Pass the damn infrastructure bill, dammit (@noahpinion / Noahpinion) https://t.co/Lx1wWH5UWh https://t.co/MwXOhItw7c
cc @Matt_Alt https://t.co/KJZxXUWDIN
@Noahpinion Noah Smith Hivemind Inc.
We made a missile that can throw an entire other missile https://t.co/IKrQv1RrX7
@Noahpinion I ignore all the Sam Vimes books.
@Noahpinion Also, I support giving pet rabbits exotic dancer names. Is the other one named Sapphire or Tarzan?
@Noahpinion First time in Paris this week in a long time: LOTS of new Korean restaurants. Everywhere. How come?
@Noahpinion Also in places like San Leandro - three-way mix of Latino, Black, and Asian, often in the same person (many of which are absurdly attractive). It's the future.
I love how Americans think the affordability of healthcare and gun violence are big problems but vote for people who won’t do anything about those things https://t.co/I4DlkvNHzU
@Noahpinion BTS: Bagels, Talmuds, Schmaltz
@Noahpinion GNU Sir Terry Pratchett
Look I'm not really in the mood to spell out all of the ridiculous and flat out false things in this thread. We all know it's wrong. I just want to say that this guy is a real asshole. https://t.co/W9jBN7lZ5h
@Noahpinion @Theophite @plike_ He's a nasty weirdo; broke with Trump on racial issues including immigration, wants to bring kill teams to hospitals on anti-mask crusades
@Noahpinion If it produced any I am terribly curious how.
I chose @Noahpinion https://t.co/R3cqbFOI9F
@Noahpinion Also, Asian and Hispanic are within themselves very broad and diverse categories.
@Noahpinion Ok, that counts. But it's still a very San Francisco mall. Has at least two sushi places.
There is a mall like this in Lima, Peru. I think some tourists have dubbed it the Latin American Akihabara https://t.co/UJLpkXHBta
@MattAlhonte @Noahpinion ICYMI https://t.co/b41gjFXUcj
PASS THE DAMN INFRASTRUCTURE BILL RIGHT NOW. https://t.co/elVn2haNL8
@Noahpinion I worked at our law school CLE as an undergrad. Our director had a post JD degree & insisted we refer to him as Doctor. He made me write essays for the Federalist Society newsletter despite my being a public employee and 18. They were not good, because of incompetence and intent.
@Noahpinion A message of opposition to electric mountain bikes (e mtb), on a water tank above UC Santa Cruz in CA, where a bunch of biking trails come together
@Noahpinion exhibit E https://t.co/dRl2F8AJGK
This is correct https://t.co/TxDvLEgIuq
@Noahpinion Thought this was the Santa Anita mall in Arcadia but didn't recognize the food court
That said, Dazai seems to have been more of a beer guy. https://t.co/NbiYREPztT
I've written extensively about Japanese sensibilities inflecting global youth culture, but never imagined Osamu Dazai going viral in US. Thanks to an anime, #dazaiosamu has 1.4b TikTok views & Keene's translation of No Longer Human is Amazon bestseller. https://t.co/7PpL7NNJLm
@Noahpinion Japan/Korea cornered the market on cute and wholesome stuff as well as little convenience items.
@Noahpinion @Valergain In California, you also get to inherit your parent's ancient property tax assessment too.
YES. THIS. 1000X THIS. https://t.co/aysfKfF75Y
He just wants freedom from his eternal servitude https://t.co/br5ETAQNN4
Yes https://t.co/eBPcrVvegU
I just tried to write "violence begets violence", and my keyboard corrected it to "violence Vegeta violence" Time to log off
Jesus f***ing Christ get the lead out of drinking pipes right now https://t.co/WytYmo6ZlE
New Pew research finds that Twitter is used by the 23% of Americans who think "I beg of you", "You idiot", and "Imagine thinking this" are persuasive arguments https://t.co/8p8rvz6VCR
@thought_less_ Courage to do what, buddy? Spike a good bill that Manchin doesn't really care about, just out of spite? Yeah that's real mature. 🙄
How many rich people go to community college? Come on. https://t.co/cc1PZruUbU
The bipartisan infrastructure bill would be a huge win for progressivism. It would get rid of lead water pipes in America. It would pour $105 billion into trains and transit. It would prove that big government is good for the economy. TAKE THE W. https://t.co/elVn2haNL8
@DerekMYoung shit man, that sucks
Wow, I didn't even know China was keeping some American hostages too! https://t.co/NltaBchZVC
@stan_keshi Ceausescu banned Scrabble
Kai Strittmatter's "We Have Been Harmonized" really home the point that under Deng, Jiang, and Hu, China really did create a novel, flexible, adaptible new form of autocracy...but then Xi Jinping came in and started turning it into something older and more familiar.
@puremalarkey Again, I think you're confusing public opinion with progressive Twitter opinion here, but now we're going in circles. Anyway, I will circle back when stuff happens, and we can see!
@stan_keshi It does seem like it! 😊
@clayranck @Theophite @samdman95 Thanks I hate it
@puremalarkey They could never receive anything in return because no one else really cares about the infra bill. So pass it, because it's good, then use that success to gain popularity and help exert more pressure on Manchin by whatever methods do exist for exerting pressure on Manchin.
@bengrossbg Second one is to stop people from talking down to you
@puremalarkey Just keep racking up wins man
Today in Reply-Tweets: You're allowed to talk down to people about society if they have only ONE law degree. https://t.co/hK0Y9QDkEy
@wolfe_herb I can't drink or do any drugs, medical issues
@puremalarkey If bribery works, DO THAT SHIT. Hell yeah.
@wolfe_herb Well u a poo poo hed
@stan_keshi (2) is psychological
@dotorii_muk https://t.co/X3RZ6ZfX5a
@puremalarkey I mean, taking lead out of pipes is gooder than not taking lead out of pipes. Honestly that's something I never thought I'd see done in my lifetime.
@scorzeth @kejjmad Awwwwwwwwwwwww
There are so many things about the pre-internet age that I want to go back and experience now that I've learned of their existence via the internet
RT @Matt_Alt: I've written extensively about Japanese sensibilities inflecting global youth culture, but never imagined Osamu Dazai going v…
@stan_keshi The connection is psychological. It's not in the genes.
@puremalarkey Conservatives don't have any policy plans except preserve the status quo and ban CRT and abortion at the state level. They already got all their tax cuts. What's left to bribe them with? They're just gonna sit there and block everything as long as they can.
@puremalarkey I think the "until they get some of what they want" part is the flaw here. It's like step 2 in the Underpants Gnome plan. Remember, if Congress passes absolutely nothing, conservatives pretty much win.
@stan_keshi I mean, I share genes with my ancestors, but the idea that this means I share ownership of a nation with them is purely psychological.
@puremalarkey If conservatives have a majority in Congress, they can do whatever the hell they want, legislation-wise.
@AImas8706 His name is Giggles, but that's similar to Gigolo
@stan_keshi That's the ADOS view. But I think connections are in our heads, not our genes.
@scorzeth Damn that's a cute rabbit.
@stan_keshi I don't think your genetic definition of "replacement" makes any sense...
@puremalarkey I mean, America is more conservative than us, and America's governing class is more conservative than America, and this is a problem. And it's a problem I don't think we can solve by refusing to remove lead from pipes.
@stan_keshi I mean, I just don't care about "founding stock" as much as you do. Or really at all, tbh. Like...who cares if you share genes with the Mayflower people? That means zilch to me. I don't understand why I should care about that. America isn't in the genetic code.
@puremalarkey Conservatives didn't even want to spend money on infrastructure. They definitely didn't want to give Biden a legislative victory.
@JHead1984 @VoidOfRoses I mean you're not wrong
@RealPotatoFan Gave her smaller treats
@heynottheface @samdman95 Who ever got blamed for killing a bill they voted for?
@puremalarkey I mean, they are really bad. But what can we do to stop them? I believe we can do something, probably. But this is not something that will stop them. It just isn't.
@stan_keshi The point is, America's racial composition has changed. We are now only 73% White+Black. I want to know what that does to our society. I'm pretty optimistic it will be good. But I want to understand the changes.
@DLEG101 https://t.co/f6uquuxzlw
@stan_keshi I feel like you're just making up new definitions for common words in order to justify misuse of those words.
@monopaulist Well, more than fractious, it makes them look chaotic and hapless.
@monopaulist Maybe, but it makes Dems look fractious
@puremalarkey Blowing up the infra bill to get Manchin is like hitting Manchin in the knee with our nuts.
@puremalarkey Yes, because I don't actually know how to threaten them. I assume there are threats. I just know this isn't one. This isn't a threat. So let's not tell ourselves it is.
@Theophite Manchin and Sinema will take no heat if progressives vote down a bill that Manchin and Sinema voted for. So blowing up that bill is simply not a credible threat.
@jaycaspiankang Yep. Suburbs have always been the engines of integration in America, possibly because they're just so hellishly isolating that you have to hang out with whoever there is.
@stan_keshi So if your parents die and you're still here, you didn't replace them because you're genetically related to them??
@puremalarkey The answer is no, of course. So the question becomes how to credibly threaten them. And blowing up infra just isn't any kind of a threat to them. So use the threats we do have.
Your regular reminder that not every game is a Prisoner's Dilemma, and that the dominant strategy is not "defect" when "defect" hurts you without hurting the other player at all. https://t.co/xY4SDlliTW
@Theophite @samdman95 Draw me the strategy payoff matrix and tell me if we're facing a prisoner's dilemma, hotshot
@samdman95 Whoa, they broke a promise? HOW FUCKING DARE THEY, who could have ever foreseen this. Well, some assholes broke a promise, we better blow shit up now
@puremalarkey There's just no convincing argument here that killing infrastructure, or even just threatening to kill it, will exert any kind of leverage over the centrists. If I thought it would it would be a different ball game.
@Bamfurlough Oof I'm sorry.
@levraibzzz Ooh, got data on that?
@puremalarkey It's stream of consciousness, but it's also based on the conceit that progressive Twitter's opinion corresponds to public opinion. And when has that ever proven to be true? Such inside baseball. I'm sorry.
Important news: Despite having lost a bit of weight, Cinnamon is still fat ❤️ https://t.co/BUKmcOKmEw
@stan_keshi Are you a replacement for your parents?
@puremalarkey Dear Lord, this is so bad
@ringtrick I mean, I was going to praise Haitian immigration specifically, but I realized that no one actually cares anymore.
Anyway, killing infrastructure will not hurt Manchin; he voted FOR the bill. Threatening to kill the bill will not compel Manchin to support reconciliation; other means of compulsion must be found. Vote for the infra bill because it's good, and because it's progressive. (end)
@puremalarkey Nobody takes heat for the death of things they vote in favor of!
@puremalarkey They voted for the infra bill. If it dies they won't take the heat; they voted for it. The complex idea that its survival hinged on a deal about the reconciliation bill will not make it into the heads of American voters; it's far too complex.
Was going to write a post about how well Haitian immigrants do in America, and then I realized it doesn't matter, because the people who really care about halting immigration don't actually give a shit about that, and everyone else already likes immigrants. https://t.co/UN4Z26Ba4O
@ImNotOwned @Taara535 Why are people acting like this is an alternative to the reconciliation bill? The idea that killing this bill will hurt Manchin in any way is fantasy.
@JimJamison84 Days or weeks are fine. But if that turns into months, it saps Biden's momentum, and that will be bad. Most worryingly, if Manchin calls progressives' bluff, and they actually vote DOWN the bill, that's a disaster.
@puremalarkey It's not fine; Manchin and Sinema are horrible. But can they be compelled by threatening the infra bill? If it goes down, they don't take any heat. They were fine not passing infra in 2019, and 2018, and 2017, etc. They'll be fine. This is not leverage.
@TheOmniZaddy I mean of course they need to do this, but threatening the infra bill is pointless; if it fails, Manchin and Sinema won't take the blame for its failure. So there's no leverage there. Instead, simply put them in the spotlight as the obstructionists they are.
@puremalarkey There's no goddamn leverage there. If the infrastructure bill fails, Manchin and Sinema won't be blamed; they voted for it.
@TWOMARD @BrandyFromTX Whether the infra bill passes will have no effect on their votes, unfortunately. If it fails to pass they won't take the blame.
@DanFagella But I agree with that.
Florida Man, meet California Woman https://t.co/IftwBLcyNJ
@KI7BDA They are really good with fatty food, not as good on their own. In my opinion.
@wophugus Both are true, and both perspectives will continue to oscillate as needed in the future.
@BrandyFromTX You're absolutely right, of course.
@PatrickLeijon @whstancil Well, the fact is, I was right, and eventually everyone agreed with me, and it was not I who was burnt :-)
@SamJabbers @whstancil Man, owned
@SamJabbers @whstancil No I didn't, I said they were nuts
@patio11 Well, why don't we average over the past decade
@ThinkMiamiBeach That wasn't even one of my arguments
@puremalarkey You have no counterarguments to any of the points, do you
@amicus_obscura "Burn it all down"? Man, shut up
@JHead1984 @klein86alex This is so goddamn dumb
@SeanErnst Cut their losses? Fuck that! Take all the Ws!!!
Voting down the infrastructure bill -- or threatening to vote it down -- doesn't do a damn thing to pressure Manchin and Sinema. They get to sit back and watch progressives be the obstructionists. PUT THEM ON THE DEFENSIVE!!
@whstancil Remember when I said Warren wasn't going to get the VP spot and you assured me that you were talking to people behind the scenes to make sure she did?
@PatrickLeijon @whstancil ?? I was right and everyone agreed with me and my thesis became conventional wisdom. Who got burnt? 😃
@SweetCainMusic How can you talk about laziness and not even read the subtitle of my post, much less the post itself? This is the OPPOSITE of "giving up on reconciliation".
Remember Flint? The infrastructure bill would make sure that never happened again! When a bill promises to get poison out of the drinking water of every poor person and every marginalized person in America, YOU VOTE FOR THAT BILL. https://t.co/IOl1JXEMzl
RT @ArmandDoma: I should sell a coffee table book that is just terrible graphs from Fox News https://t.co/8UxWfajlX4
@mullansp @TomCruise_69 Both are bad and realistic.
@whstancil Says the guy who assured me that he was politicking behind the scenes to get Elizabeth Warren the VP spot
@dubioushandle https://t.co/s5TCZYbqpn
@The_Libertaaron No, just against spending indiscriminately.
@Taara535 It includes $105 billion for public transit funding and a plan to take all of the lead out of all the drinking water in America. "Minor"? The fuck?!!
@GordonAChaffin You're kidding, right? This bill would increase public transit funding as a percent of transportation funding in America.
@codytfenwick @payer_single Progressives are vowing to vote against the bill unless their demands are met. My post, which is NOT wrong, argues that they should vote for the bill on its own merits (and that their political maneuvering is going to fail anyway).
@jaredbritton7 Did ye read the post?
@a_fad_es Yes, pass reconciliation! Pass each thing as soon as humanly possible! Don't play these stupid factional games! Take the W!!!
Are progressives really going to vote against taking the lead out of the drinking water of millions of poor and marginalized Americans? Are they really going to vote against $105 billion in funding for public transit? Don't play this goddamn 27-dimensional chess. TAKE THE W.
@payer_single READ MY DAMN POST, DAMMIT
@ElectionsJoe The transit funding is in the bipartisan infrastructure bill, hoss. Take a look.
RT @markgongloff: Oh you think you've got a housing bubble? That's cute. China's housing bubble would eat yours for breakfast https://t.co/…
The big lesson here is that if you want Americans to care about something, just talk about it as much as possible, and try to reduce the number of things you talk about so you can grab the top few spots
@hmantegazzi @SarahGrynpas My friend: "My kids are half Chinese, a quarter Peruvian, and a quarter Polish, so we were a little surprised that they turned out to look Filipino"
@SteveNegusMasr I ordered it between the time you made the initial tweet and the time you corrected it
@stan_keshi The sinister plot to replace America's founding stock with people who wear the same hoodies and sneakers, listen to the same hip-hop songs, worship the same God, watch the same anime, and have the same political fights about housing and crime and taxes
@DrRobertNFord Rob, I like you because despite being on the Right, you also smoke a lot of weed, and I respect this💖
What do Americans think is a problem: Answer: Pretty much everything they read about in the news. https://t.co/3IhL5f9sNS
Remember this next time you call for "a Marshall Plan for X". The Marshall Plan was a success because we gave the money to countries who were willing and able to use it effectively. We can't remake the world by throwing dollars at it. https://t.co/ddyWzjKTnI
@roboso Centuries of history and reams of research
The disconnect between the urgency of the climate issue and the sense of popular urgency around the climate issue is just bananapants. https://t.co/uOrgsJZHP3
@wolfe_herb No, he's not a fascist stormtrooper. You have to brake more slowly.
Linguistic distinctiveness is often a key input into a sense of national distinctiveness. https://t.co/rT06pN1rfr
@MoralHazardPay @Theophite @plike_ Yes. He is quite bad. But in the end I think we'll see him as just a guy who wanted to act out and smash stuff.
RT @PolicyShill: @MaxMurrayShow @jdcmedlock And it worked https://t.co/cHIDEzrPz6
@wolfe_herb But he's not. He's just nothing. He's just an unhinged guy who wants to act out and get attention and feel violent and powerful.
I love this tweet so much. https://t.co/WhCpytj2t8
@wolfe_herb Well, like I said, come see me in ten years.
@David_Jorgonson @Theophite @plike_ Who does?
@wolfe_herb https://t.co/G1xxTNm9PN
@DaisyChewy @plike_ @Theophite Oh they are absolutely insane. But like many insane people, I'm guessing theirs is less ideologically clear of an insanity than the narrative would have us believe.
@Theophite @plike_ He is certainly a violent idiot.
People in an Era of Unrest don't like being told how ridiculous so many of the people and ideas and movements and actions of that era will look in retrospect. So come see me in a decade and we'll talk again. (end)
But like I said, we're not ready for this conversation yet. We're not yet out of the Era of Unrest, even if I'm right in my prediction that we've seen the peak. https://t.co/v16zMHpo5r
Maybe in 5 years, maybe in 15, we're going to look back and see very clearly that a lot of the prominent figures from this period were attention seekers, outrage entrepreneurs, or just riled-up people who didn't really know why they were riled up. https://t.co/JPpF6uNozA
For many, only by insisting to themselves that everyone has a very clear ideological side in a very clear ideological battle (instead of just acting out) can they convince themselves that their own activism, their own hatreds, their own imagined acts of violence mean something.
But we're not ready for that conversation, because we're still in the era of unrest, and so we still have to justify our own agitation to ourselves by telling ourselves that everyone has a very strict ideology.
What we're eventually going to realize is that 2014-whenever was a period of unrest, where a lot of people felt that they needed to make dramatic demonstrations and take dramatic actions, but not all of those people really knew what they wanted.
@plike_ @Theophite insists these guys want fascist death squads and race war
@Mal_A_Clypse @Theophite If they say things indicating they aren't fascists, we must not believe them, because who would believe a fascist?
@ElGranCAQuetzal In my experience, media tries to cater to existing narratives rather than creating narratives.
@Theophite He also came out in support of BLM!
@ElGranCAQuetzal I mean, false narratives are simply incredibly common; most things are complicated.
@Theophite You guys should hang out and discover all you actually have in common! 😊
@Theophite Haha I was thinking of you when I wrote that tweet. Turns out you and Ammon agree about the police!
@MaxMurrayShow @jdcmedlock @PolicyShill @russellmz @tmychow But "more spending" has been so damn effective, why throw away a winning strategy
Wow, first I'd seen of this. Pretty amazing. Kinda complicates the narrative that Ammon Bundy was a fascist stormtrooper... https://t.co/h8MmjY4Mqg
@jason_path10 It's Chinese, right?
@MaxMurrayShow @russellmz @PolicyShill @jdcmedlock @tmychow Check out Stockton's experiment
@NoahProoval I'll ignore the "hero" comment because you're a Noah 😘
@NoahProoval AFDC was a pretty bad program, but we just didn't replace it with anything. Still, we increased other programs and manage to still drive poverty down during the 00s and 10s.
RT @tekashi996: What if the “sex trafficking mania” that’s sort of taken suburban social media by storm is a form of secular Evangelical es…
@Fourthletter58 @HeavyHymnal @theendismeh Mexico
Check out this discussion thread. Tons of evidence shows that giving poor people money usually makes them non-poor. Amazing how that works! https://t.co/LvdoUT4PR3
@nextdoorsv The Jews will replace you* *with anime and Kpop
@persimfan I don't own any real estate but you can have my old sofa
@Network_Guy @Valergain The Ottoman Empire knew how
@MonkeySalad Stonetown mall I think
The food court too. Almost all Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese stuff! https://t.co/vk9Qjd3AfU
Walking through an American shopping mall for the first time in many years, and it's all just Korean and Japanese stuff. ❤️ https://t.co/IO1d8LxJk0
@JamesTimmins @Insert_Name28 This is a LARPer man, ignore it
@Valergain Your bougie parents will leave you their suburban real estate, don't worry
@Ciel_Cicatrice You should change your name to Dumb Butt BAM
@Insert_Name28 You only say that because you know it'll never happen. When someone tries to raise property tax on you by like 0.03% you'll be screeching that it'll cause gentrification or something. Cosplay kid.
@Insert_Name28 No! You don't! You just want to be a Boomer but pretend like you're not!
@ethanbaron For duck's sake man
@ethanbaron What am I looking at
@MaxMurrayShow @PolicyShill @jdcmedlock Yes, and that argument appears to be wrong.
@MaxMurrayShow @PolicyShill @jdcmedlock Actually we've gotten a good return on our anti-poverty spending
I feel like Outrage Entrepreneurship is reaching the Juicero stage here. First movers already exploited all the lucrative niches of things to get people mad at, so the new wave has to get mad at stuff like e-bikes. Late Stage Outrage Capitalism.
@MaxMurrayShow @PolicyShill @jdcmedlock Or I choose a politics based on the goddamn evidence, one or the other
@miniver I tried to read the first book and then literally burned it halfway through
Final crime numbers for 2020 are in. Murder up 30%, assault up 12%. https://t.co/diVJOto5YT
America also invented pachinko but is among the countries least interested in pachinko. But in that case it didn't result in hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths. https://t.co/AMxsBzutWH
@John47137220 Yeah the orgs seem highly dysfunctional and not that useful in general.
@ReubenMcCallum @DeepDarkRock @gobsmackled "things that people who know nothing about Japan whatsoever say"
@excigaddict @originalspin *wakes up from nightmare and looks at arms* Whew, safe!!
@Itmechr3 I have a question. What must happen to ICE?
@eean It's like asking why Dylan bothered making that awful Hendrix cover
@originalspin In 2008 I was drinking a cup of Tazo Awake tea, and I noticed on the tab it had the words: "Imagine yourself on a lush tea plantation in India in 1850. The tea you would be drinking would probably taste a lot like Awake." I said "What if I was the one picking the tea?"
Passed by Folsom Street Fair yesterday, and realized I will never not be able to see it as Wheel of Time cosplay
@WesLawe Has more BDSM anyway
Yeah but Terry Pratchett's "Discworld" series is 15,497 pages. Bow to the true master https://t.co/qLR6m7XBZX
At least the non-white tankies have some sort of rationale, as opposed to the white tankies who just got tired of playing video games or whatever and needed a new thrill https://t.co/ZSfFLi2Otc
...prompting me to write "Americans dressed as clowns defeat clowns dressed as Americans"...
@Noahpinion When was that ever the narrative about the Bundys? Sovereign Citizens and SovCit-adjacent people are (in)famous for being anti-Federal government and state use of violence. That’s their whole thing.
@Noahpinion I've somehow read/listened to the entire Discworld series, but get scared off by the books over 500 pages.
@AlmingtonCap @Noahpinion Before I explain, have you heard of front yards?
@HistoryBoomer @Noahpinion Strong Disagree. The ranking of Discworld storylines is clearly: 1. MvL 2. Watch 3. Tiffany Aching 4. Other Industrial Revolution 5. Death 6. Witches 7. Ancient Civilizations 8. Wizards/Rincewind
I should start talking to people like this of anyone brings up anything about confectionery (thankfully no one ever does, because I'd be insufferable). https://t.co/g19fpReVNz
@Noahpinion Yeah, this is not a great way to strengthen the breadth of their appeal, though perhaps it comes across as more noble than hapless to the base.
All true. The increase in Asian influence in the US is huge, over just the last 10 or 20 years even https://t.co/W5FoA4aScz
@Noahpinion @johngmcnally Did a car write this?
@SarahGrynpas @Noahpinion You can even get several layers of Hispanic-Asian mixtures, like, dunno, the children of a Chinese-Peruvian and Philippine couple, or Japanese-Brazilian and Korean-Chilean. And I'm not even counting people from Western or Southern Asia, or Central America
@BorderPolitics_ @Noahpinion San Francisco plus parts of Southern California. There are malls like this in Orange County and the San Gabriel Valley. I used to go to the mall in Arcadia (aka Chinese Beverly Hills) for Asian food all the time. It was a little shocking to me when I first moved to California.
@Noahpinion The white tankies generally want to go full white nationalist but hold back because it would get them excommunicated from their social circles, so they use an ideology that lets them launder their views. Less of that issue for non-white ethnonationalism.
@Noahpinion @Theophite @samdman95 Sinema and Manchin win because they get nice lobbyist careers to fall back on, and America gets nothing because that’s what we ultimately want.
@MaxMurrayShow @PolicyShill @jdcmedlock @Noahpinion "New York City has reduced veteran homelessness by nearly 90% since 2011. ...housing homeless veterans within 90 days of entering the homeless system." https://t.co/qcbYjj28fe
@Noahpinion If you remove the profanity from Discworld, though, it's only 9,273 pages.
@Noahpinion I want everyone *except me* to do degrowth
@EEMthethird @Noahpinion Sir take that back, I was contemptible well before I got my jd.
@Noahpinion Googled it and I'm a flat earther now, thanks. I mean how can you not be? https://t.co/9V5znsoVM7
@Noahpinion If I were to go Tankie, I would be convinced that China is going to rule the world and I better get a good record going now. (China doesn't seem to have a problem with Facebook misinformation claiming the vaccine is in salad dressing and will mark you for the devil.)
The budget deficit is number 2 lmao we’re screwed. https://t.co/Ya2PcR4I1u
@Noahpinion @originalspin Are you East India Company management?
@Noahpinion Even more complexity in the inner east bay. Very glad to have grown up where the map looks like this. https://t.co/KB2GfEFp2V
@Noahpinion Working against fighting climate change are the deniers, the obfuscators, and the greedy fossil fuel interests, but never discount the airheaded concern trolls.
@Noahpinion I needed this. I just had a package stolen for the third time in the past two months. Cinnamon soothes my rage.
@Noahpinion Juicero - when the stories were juicier than the product.
@Noahpinion You should visit Monterey Park the next time you’re in LA Noah.
@Noahpinion Is this guy another version of the classic Twitter performance art piece, "plumbing the depths of stupidity"?
@Noahpinion Dude is more like an anti authority / anti government guy
@Noahpinion I think the strategy here is more like: “threaten loudly to defect while stalling for a couple weeks and then sulkingly cooperate when the obvious bluff is called.” It doesn’t accomplish much, but maybe it maximizes news coverage or something?
@Noahpinion @Theophite @plike_ And he doesn't like cops *if they limit his violent idiocy*
@AngelicaOung @noahsmith @noahsmith or @Noahpinion ? Does have the given name Noah Smith automatically mean you have 🐇🐇🐇?
@Noahpinion Joke: Noah should spend it with Stever and find out just what Stever’s price is
@Noahpinion @Valergain I have a brother, how do I deal with him?
@joeday05 @Noahpinion Yes, and that’s bad. It should apply to everyone. That doesn’t negate Noah’s point that’s it’s an important principal for any free society.
@Noahpinion Ya he is 😊 https://t.co/VELb9d18Ea
@Noahpinion The same is true of IPAs. We'll look back and call them what they are--over-hopped bitter beers.
@cokeynes420 @Noahpinion The murder rate was unchanged last year in for example Germany (https://t.co/OJxDrPhThL) and Mexico (https://t.co/InWUZ6F6Y1). It fell in Britain. The pandemic does not explain the surge in murder in the US.
@Noahpinion 楓糖 Fengtang, means maple syrup (named by @kejjmad)
@Noahpinion @stan_keshi I think it'd be more reasonable to say that most people won't care about it.
The city emblem of Otaru, Hokkaido makes it look like they're really into Jewish baseball. https://t.co/Hx39EtaJ1l
@Noahpinion The alternative is that these kids would be throwing Molotov 🍹🍹 in real life, so maybe it's fine
@Noahpinion Electric vehicles, carbon capture, etc. are bad as they might lead fewer people to pursue deprivation and degrowth as their solutions.
@stan_keshi @Noahpinion You can think of nationhood as a: (1) blood and soil, or (b) shared ideals and shared purpose. In the first concept, ethnic demographics is integral for nationhood, in the other it isn’t. Which one are you for?
Moreover, ICE must be destroyed. https://t.co/tsiwod9UoL
@Noahpinion Joking at first and then I remembered "Wild Palms" (1993). Had to look it up. Somehow the real version is a bit less frightening.
@Noahpinion The Jiang and Hu mode had serious shortcomings, which gave Xi legitimacy as he went the other direction.
@Noahpinion Privacy was good.
@Noahpinion Among my questions is how did she aquire the bear urine?
@Noahpinion what’s a back yard?
Just blocked somebody for talking shit about @noahsmith’s rabbit.
@Noahpinion I already think you are an idiot if you have ONE JD, much less two. That is contemptible.
@Noahpinion Recommend Wendy Cheng's book The Changs Next Door to the Diaz's, about the San Gabriel Valley
@Noahpinion I am personally (as opposed to impersonally) outraged that I’m forced to Google 50% of your tweets just to know what the hell you are referencing.
@Noahpinion My favorite is when its announced that the BLM is setting backfires as a wildfire control measure and right-wing social media loses their minds being hysterical "Black Lives Matter is burning down the forests!"
@Noahpinion linking this here since I *did* type up a whole bunch of counterarguments I don't think anyone saw because I apparently dislike myself https://t.co/hJPDikBqRM
@Noahpinion Climate change is people's 10th most perceived big problem. The deficit is #2. So this seems like politicians following people's concerns. https://t.co/ULxiNGwyWC
@quinoaburger09 @theirfanator @Noahpinion Amazing. Dude's principled to a fault, nobody can take that away from him.
@Noahpinion @originalspin It'll still taste like Awake, you'd just be in more pain.
@Noahpinion This light novel series is absurdly long (over 43000 pages!): https://t.co/MPoLcUMOb4
@Noahpinion You lured me in with the rabbits and just stole my heart with the Pratchett homage.
@Noahpinion I'd be very, VERY interested in Japanese cheesecake if I weren't already as big as a house.
@Noahpinion Internally, blm is a huge mess. Friend of mine left when pendley moved HQ and went to regional. The rural regionals are very much Trumper anti vaccers. It's kind of a crazy dynamic.
@Noahpinion How amazing would it be to be able to read a History of the 21st Century from the 23rd Century perspective?
@Noahpinion They seem to do good work, but the GOP desire to gut the HQ orgs and instead rely on grunts that are both rural and often ex military is intentional and hugely destructive (on purpose)
@Noahpinion Malazan's coming for that crown.
@Noahpinion Dude isn't even counting the Mishnah or the Talmud. AMATEUR.
@theirfanator @Noahpinion Woke Ammon Bundy https://t.co/7H9bAY6v1Z
@Noahpinion So he paid double? Can’t be a smart decision.
@bluefiddleguy @noahsmith @Noahpinion Oops! apologies @noahsmith, although I would also stand up for your hypothetical rabbits. Yes @noahpinion’s rabbit, specifically Cinnamon.
@Noahpinion https://t.co/RtIKyR8D5L
@Noahpinion @znmeb Right, sometimes it's an Iterated Ultimatum Game
@Noahpinion Yeahhh, why would an anarchist ever want to defund the police?
@stan_keshi @Noahpinion Consoles were banned in China for like a decade
I’m uncomfortable with how often I agree with Noah. This is the best argument I’ve seen for passing the infrastructure bill. I, once again, completely agree. https://t.co/uLd4PK2p7h
@Noahpinion Hawaii also comes to mind.
@Noahpinion These are strange times as people try to find meaning in their lives. Trying to find causes to fight for. I can't imagine anyone will look back at the rise of anti-vaxxers in the middle of a once a century pandemic and not see mass hysteria.
@Noahpinion East Coast influenced by Europe and West Coast influenced by Asia and both influence by Latin America in different ways.
@Noahpinion I am no mathematician, but I am not 💯 that’s how the word random works.
@Noahpinion I feel like this should be word count. How many pages do they want? We can do that.
Feel bad! Everything that’s good is problematic! https://t.co/hXiOIM5bTp
@Noahpinion Just thinking about how growing up in the 90s the media was always making fun of the 60s counterculture as frivolous and silly whereas now we are making movies lionizing everyone from the black panthers to Abbie Hoffman.
@Noahpinion @Insert_Name28 Noah when are you gonna write a BOpinion piece that tells me whether Succession is an accurate picture of billionaires or not? I assume you know cuz "macroeconomics" == "lots of money" and stuff.
I started Noom Oct 2 w/ 170 my goal. Today I weighed in at 173. October 2 is Saturday. So wish me luck. It would be cool to hit it by or on that day. Highly recommend Noom — it has felt very Zen. https://t.co/CDs9X1UphN
I preach about the sunk cost fallacy, but here I am watching Season 6 Episode 11 of Billions.
I think we can all agree the member of #EconTwitter least likely to order a gold covered steak is @ModeledBehavior https://t.co/TVpJFYERE9
@Claudia_Sahm https://t.co/OlN2w5nOji
@johnjhorton Well, you write down a big matrix, where the number of rows is the number of actions one player has...
This is not an appropriate use of the terms gross and net. The effect on deficit is a different concept entirely from the cost of the bill https://t.co/xAuaXQHEu8
@lukestein perhaps unsurprisingly there is also a didn't understand the assignment corollary
@ModeledBehavior Time to order your Faraday cage
There’s no truth to the rumor that I will be the next president of the Dallas Fed.
@HJWallEcon @jmhorp Jeremy is kicking himself for missing that one.
@Claudia_Sahm Brexia being Brexiteer will Brexit. Think of that country as a place where GOP/Trump has been winning since 2014 without even stealing anything.
I win for having the only affiliation that takes up three lines. @FairGrowthCmte’s proper name is a mouthful! Sometimes we choose to use the catchy SCEDFG acronym instead. 😜 https://t.co/jpk7D2FDCP
Retweet if this is the dumbest shit you’ve ever heard in your entire life https://t.co/oamU3gzuEK
But the really interesting thing was what he found on self-reported happiness. Months later, when asked about subjective happiness, compliers who went through with the decision because the coin came up heads were happier than had they not. 15/n
With that dogma in my mind, I went to the study believing "well, put aside whatever they find, I still believe that these marriages are probably sub-optimal, because why wouldn't they have formed them if they were so great to begin with?" But it's on here the study pushed me. 13n
As I say in my substack, matching models often show that the assigned matches that occur, when made voluntarily, are better than other assignments that could have been made. Like more stable. This seems sensible -- wouldn't it be people who know best when and to whom to marry?
These move induced marriages are a complier population who would have not married (not then anyway) had they not been assigned which to me, and how I think, made me suspect they would be relatively unstable as far as unions go. But it's hard to find evidence for that 10/n
In this table, we see linear probability models of marriage regressed against total number of moves for various types of marriage outcomes and samples. The results are the same -- there is a large increase in the probability of marriage caused by a move. 9/n https://t.co/UvBBqENPnn
As most reading this know, randomization has the nice feature of allowing us to draw plausible conclusions about causal effects in aggregate, and the authors walk us through evidence suggesting that moves, indeed, cause marriage rates to rise. 8/n
The questions are scientifically interesting, as well as relevant for questions in labor economics. The US Army, as Susan notes, cares about the well being of its employees, for instance, and so has a natural vested interest in knowing what effect its choices have on others 4/n
The economic impacts of migration, a research question that Wozniak has spent a large chunk of her career studying, weave through family's lives and may cause households to dissolve or form. The problem is migration and marriage is so endogenous it's hard to say much 5/n
Susan and Abigail are interested in estimating the effects of moves on marriage. Moving and marriage, as I try to say in my substack, are deeply intertwined in knots of endogeneity. I propose that maybe that's true for all really massive life decisions occurring together. 2/n
I just posted a substack #JHR_Threads of a new forthcoming article at @J_HumanResource by @SCarter611 at West Point and @AbigailWozniak at the Federal Reserve. I loved this paper and encourage you to read the substack, watch the interview and the article. https://t.co/cms3yikXAf
You can (and should) still get Pizza Hut pizza that is basically unchanged in taste from 1995. And I can see from where I'm sitting a 36 inch Sony CRT hooked up to an N64 and my copy of Goldeneye is nearby. Most of this is within your grasp! https://t.co/oLyybnYhoI
Johnson is a very talented and offbeat impressionist who does the best Trump impression that's ever been done, but I'm sure they will feed him sub-Behar level clapter shit to spit out for the boomer dullards who form the core audience. https://t.co/5cVk16apKm
@ModeledBehavior The Sear and Roebuck catalog has you covered https://t.co/t0j4FlJmbs
yes, and entirely possible to be a good team player and an iconoclast. in fact, it's a huge win for the team. if it's done well as Jeremy does it. https://t.co/2kTT0hObDb
@ModeledBehavior It's some extremely dumb shit, but sadly I'm not even sure it's the dumbest shit I've heard THIS WEEK https://t.co/Bl9GIz0Wd6
Duck Phillips from Mad Men plays Blanche's dead husband's illegitimate son on an episode of Golden Girls. I'll keep you posted on whatever else I find before I fall asleep. https://t.co/jw6WZDaOOm
@ModeledBehavior Covid: it's good luck
@econhist_allday You mean a novel price index, not an index of the prices of brand new houses, right?
@econhist_allday Thank you! A little bit yes.
I have no choice then https://t.co/4J9xXC8V6D
Another year of not getting a macarthur genius grant for my dumbass tweets
RT @sam_a_bell: funny that Warren comes out against Powell *after* he said last week that he will defer to the new VC for Supervision on re…
RT @GregDaco: #Powell leading the #Fed to act early and go big in the early days of the global coronavirus recession is actually what prev…
Someone who thinks Jerome Powell got "lucky" with the economy he faced shouldn't be sharing their opinion on these matters frankly. https://t.co/pwTcs56dYq
Lucky!?! https://t.co/SnKrT8li0U
RT @MarcGoldwein: Most people who make fun of Pogs: -Own zero pogs -Have never minted a slammer -Have never participated in the World POG F…
I didn’t need this news https://t.co/WACyb3Csve
This would be a very logical "premium twitter" addition that they could charge for.
One very simple thing for twitter to do would be expand surveying capabilities. Why they keep twitter polls so basic and limited is baffling to me.
@RocCityBuilt @JosephPolitano CPS microdata, which is why I would bill you high for this https://t.co/kVOhaUHj0z
@RocCityBuilt @JosephPolitano Can I bill you for this wasted time? https://t.co/Pm0WzEY2Rs
Tucker Carlson and the populist right basically believe "The enemy of my enemy is wise, even if they believe in chem trails"
There is nobody so ridiculous and ignorant that if they criticize the right people (regardless of the merits of the critique) that Tucker won’t embrace them and give them a platform https://t.co/bzDWlPj3Im
Wow. From a grant to incentivize better zoning to a generic handout for planning. What an absurd joke. Cut this spending, its useless now. https://t.co/gMAhtx3diI
That’s funny https://t.co/Dj6qdhGKCm
RT @elidourado: The first time I tried streaming video online, I must have been 16, and it was such a terrible experience that my reaction…
@RocCityBuilt @JosephPolitano No, many people have not retired from age 25 to 54, which is the group that line shows
RT @JosephPolitano: RETVRN TO FULL EMPLOYMENT https://t.co/Y6Sp8PmHCP
The medical industrial complex is scamming us https://t.co/gHJngbRRSw
@el_manels https://t.co/DFzLtMm4XC
@BreakItUp3 Remember when you said I dont listen? Take that to hear
I’m going to lose my mind https://t.co/oamU3gzuEK
To be clear I am in no way considering this for myself https://t.co/glLkuMFIT9
@BreakItUp3 That’s a good idea
Hope every single one of you is having a respectful and observant Capital Day
On September 27th every year we celebrate Capital Day to commemorate when Lancaster was the capital of the United States for 24 hours in 1777 https://t.co/rZqMxGOu2g https://t.co/2Dtm19GhOq
@lukeyoquinto Yeah the novelty there will kill you. Each new one is a distraction until you are used to it, which takes time
@lukeyoquinto Modestly priced puzzles, of course https://t.co/rW7TkBzRiA
@lukeyoquinto Same. I’ve got about 30 of them though
RT @mattyglesias: The White House takes the YIMBY Pill. https://t.co/OVaYETb96p https://t.co/n45dqJQnSa
@BreakItUp3 @jimfarley98 @Ford I live my $40k car values
@BreakItUp3 @jimfarley98 @Ford It’s a cool truck but I wouldn’t spend that much on a vehicle
RT @jimfarley98: Just outside Memphis, we’re building the biggest auto plant in @Ford’s history. It's called Blue Oval City & is where we…
RT @conorsen: “Covering nearly 6 square miles, the Tennessee complex would be roughly three times the size of Ford’s River Rouge plant comp…
@BreakItUp3 I would assume it is for a coworking type or even open office space but then read the text it sounds like it’s for home use
@karlbykarlsmith @charlescwcooke Not disagreeing with that. I'm saying this data rebukes the idea there's no political valence to vaccination rates, and that anyone trying to explain the patterns is selling snake oil. He is trying to generalize from Florida, wrongly.
Rates projections are higher compared to march, hard to make the case fading delta variant leaves us more optimistic than pre surge https://t.co/TgbZqN5fnw
@mattyglesias https://t.co/C09gowLf6G https://t.co/W2ei7lZpMW
@karlbykarlsmith @charlescwcooke I think Florida is middle of the pack, but his argument that “As ever, those who are telling you that they understand the patterns here are doing nothing more than selling political snake oil.” seems contradicted by a pretty clear pattern that also well explains Florida
@charlescwcooke Ok but what about this? https://t.co/BMgsvdhNDS
RT @sam_a_bell: "assertion that labor force participation has moved permanently lower as a result of a downturn is not new. Indeed, it has…
@ModeledBehavior It really helps solve a slice of the “how do you have meaningful interaction between a one-to-many audience?” problem.
@ModeledBehavior We’ll see some awesome northern lights, but unfortunately my camera won’t work
@ModeledBehavior My problem is, when you're solving them, it kind of feels like if you could almost truly understand the unifying mathematical theory behind them, which would Mean Something. But of course what it actually means is you've become a dude surrounded by puzzles
@ModeledBehavior whoa respect. See, this is the kind of wholesome hobby you can get into when you buy modestly priced automobiles
@ModeledBehavior Here's a little baby one from a couple decades back. A big one would wreak long term havoc on the electrical grid if not shut down quickly in response to rising geomagnetic induced currents. https://t.co/jq1QpsCLoN
@ModeledBehavior real talk, my sister got me a puzzle-a-day Advent calendar last year and it was a productivity-destroying curse
@ModeledBehavior I can't believe that @RyanRadia has yet to win one for total mastery of the nation's datasets
@ModeledBehavior This should tip you over the finish line https://t.co/rT6A4JRZSd
@ModeledBehavior Too much fuckin shit on me
@ModeledBehavior Yeah my N64 is plugged into the 2020 LG OLED TV. No reason to ever give that bad boy up.
@ModeledBehavior @TWLadyGrey Retweet if you think that dude was trying to pump and dump bitcoin...
@ModeledBehavior Think on the bright side: If there is a giant geomagnetic storm you wouldn't have to read stories like this posted to Twitter.
@ModeledBehavior You gotta start tweeting about car financing
@ntrickett16 @Claudia_Sahm Also interesting how similar the dynamics are to bank runs.
@Claudia_Sahm Mostly Brexit. Tens of thousands of drivers leaving the UK, end of cabotage rights for EU drivers etc. Nothing similar in the EU or Northern Ireland.
WHY DO PEOPLE DO THIS Walls of coefficients communicate one of two things: 1) you don’t know what you care about, or 2) you are invoking the kitchen sink because you don’t have confidence in your identification strategy. https://t.co/2c68ApCnxO
There’s something very Fed about two resignations where one announces before market open and the other after market close.
Brainard says she's "confounded" by stories that say we're in a very tight labor market. "I just think it's very early days to be concluding that there's been a structural shift in the desire and necessity of prime-age Americans" to seek jobs.
Some people are so kind, they’ll ask how my name is pronounced - rehearse it multiple times and 60 secs later, total relapse: Ateeeeff Meeeunn 😂 I am sure I do the same to others, but what’s in a name, it’s the thought that counts
@ConnorMEwing Canada’s Texas.
Brown asks if it's time the Fed board included a Black woman. Powell: "We want everybody’s voice heard around the table, that would certainly include black women." Yellen: "That would certainly be a very welcome achievement."
@Claudia_Sahm brexit (mostly)
I'm thrilled to see these two education path-breakers recognized. I've known Rick Hanushek and followed his scholarship for decades. I haven't always agreed with Rick's conclusions, but he's never failed to engage and challenge me! https://t.co/fdviaauWTs
Generous offer by @Claudia_Sahm for macro job market candidates! Check it out @AEAMP1! https://t.co/gHctMP3T6r
@KimBrownLive @blackhousenew @Claudia_Sahm - It's not just in Econ profession. Not sure that "misery loves company" is what we desire or is needed but does speak to systemic challenges.
Finally finished first draft of my research statement. This has been one of the most difficult things I've ever written but I'm glad to have it at a point where I can ask for the feedback I need.
@Claudia_Sahm Context is good. π as a variable name (if I got that right in the discussion of Phelps-Friedman) makes me do a double-take because of my own background. But I just found that I could search for π in a document, which gave me some delight for whatever reason.
Very interesting. I'll have to try reading Rudd's paper (not being an economist, I might be left scratching my head, but then, a lot of economists seem to be scratching their head at how inflation happens, even if most don't want to admit it, so I might have company). https://t.co/TKLzAnviHE
Leave it to American policymakers to dramatically reduce poverty and hardship, set our nation on the fastest pace (Delta uncertainty aside) to recover from the deep pandemic-induced recession of any country, and then argue that we did it (mostly) wrong. 🤷‍♂️
Child Allowance Romney v. Immigration Hawk Romney: The Anguish of the Globes https://t.co/m40LyDPXvk
@leah_boustan @BrianCAlbrecht @causalinf You'd be Canadian!
How stupid was Biden to waste months negotiating with Republicans on an infrastructure bill?
@yudapearl @hangingnoodles @Claudia_Sahm Not that it’s impossible, but that any sufficiently advanced artificial intelligence will have, I increasingly suspect, many of the same blind spots as our sufficiently advanced biological intelligences, for frustrating information theory-related reasons
@Claudia_Sahm “We replaced the CEO with an ML model, let’s see if anyone notices” https://t.co/GN9XrDUPL3
“Footnote 1: In most macro models, these expectations are referred to, “rational expectations.” The meaning is a bit different than you might think. https://t.co/mxu880Mue1
“We all are awful forecasters, especially during times of crisis.” See Annie Duke helps keep me honest, ijs @Claudia_Sahm
“Stable prices come from stable expectations, we said so. But reality don’t care. In fact, since the Great Recession, the Fed consistently fell short of its 2% target.” I hear UBI is a great way to increase inflation, I’m just saying. https://t.co/mxu880Mue1
This s is similar of course to how it works for stocks (it’s not), the aggregate of analyst expectations is how the stock performs (it’s really not) @Claudia_Sahm
“Mainstream academic macroeconomists and central bankers latched onto the idea decades ago that inflation expectations were key. So the story goes, how much consumers and businesses expect prices to rise is how much they will rise in reality.” Oh. Oh dear. https://t.co/mxu880Mue1
@mathiasverraes @Claudia_Sahm Right, and the problem there is both computer chips, the fabs for which are stupidly expensive and time consuming to build
Therefore, 35% or so of the country is in favor https://t.co/0E2vOCvBw0
@Claudia_Sahm @Dr_Phalin I’m increasingly convinced if one can’t explain it to an interested fifth grader it’s not worth explaining
@Claudia_Sahm I’m bad at keeping things in stock! I had the classic “condiments and alcohol” bachelor fridge when I lived alone! And somehow I’ve not known even mild inconvenience
@Claudia_Sahm From the US side afaict it’s half “US elites are Taylorist high-modernist morons who can’t figure out why 100 years of attempting to scientific forestry our basic industries hasn’t worked” and half “Americans see one photo of empty shelves on Instagram and think it’s the country”
*be more on brand So tired. 😴 But in the last couple of hours I managed to complete my most ambitious seating chart to date!
Midnight copies the night before class. Hard for me to me more on brand than that. Maybe I'm ready to go back to in-person courses after all! https://t.co/wuN40CgyHr
Senate Republicans just essentially voted to shut down the government - which they have been warned by past GOP Treasury Secretaries will put our economy in peril. Stop trying to work with these people Pres Biden - they are just blocking your agent and running out the clock!
@Claudia_Sahm Thanks for sharing. I am a micro person but I will read the original working paper and use some insights for my macro undergrad class.
It's been hard to talk about this publicly before, but as we approach the third anniversary of unexpected passing of my mentor and colleague, Werner Troesken, I wanted to highlight a part of his public health scholarship that is now more relevant than ever.
These are the nine people responsible for picking the next President of the @BostonFed https://t.co/56T4y6DHqu
#PuffiSays hey, aren’t you done working yet? … yes, kitty 🐈‍⬛ PS no idea long she was in my office, thank goodness didn’t cause a scene #macrokitty https://t.co/agUBX0enf0
Larry Summers is a keynote and Jim Bullard is on a panel. such a shame we aren't all hanging out in Manilla together! https://t.co/LLghSu8XF6 https://t.co/jnrf8NnfGh
speaking tonight at a central bank conference in Manilla (via Zoom). my lecture is on the future of forecasting. https://t.co/9rtgH0wFqi
Got nothing for you today. No words of wisdom. I'm tired. Social media is hard work.
@Claudia_Sahm Correction: delete “during COVID” and insert “of all time.”
@yudapearl @Claudia_Sahm 1 key thing humans can do but AI can't is adjust for what isn't in the data. New essay out soon on "philosophy of data" and the issue of low internality data (antonym of externality)
Happy 46th birthday to me! Scallops in a lemon butter vermouth pan sauce, zucchini & tomatoes with thyme, & cake with exquisite buttercream from Cake Ann in Gloucester, MA. https://t.co/ierOhajRme
@Claudia_Sahm I don’t understand why Warren and some of the other Democratic politicians dislike Powell. Imo he’s doing a damn good job and is the reason why we haven’t experienced another recession like 08.
@rasmansa Also this by @Claudia_Sahm https://t.co/27Uw0OBaj2
note, neither are voting members of the FOMC this year. President Biden does not appoint Reserve Bank Presidents. the selection process is run at the District level.
lazy white men keep their journalism jobs & admit to enabling fascism. MEANWHILE, the nonwhite nonmale journos — who recognized what’s been happening and spoke up — get labeled as “difficult” along with the smearing that comes along with daring to challenge the status quo https://t.co/bXRdfxwDfX
@Claudia_Sahm As you know, if the data are consistent with two very different underlying causal mechanisms, those data cannot be used to prove or support one as correct. The primary problem with the paper is it assumes the (false) loanable funds model it claims the data uniquely support.
March 2020 and the lack of a banking crisis -- frankly banks were did really well throughout -- suggests they were more stable than in 2008. of course, we don't get to see the counterfactual. Fed may have eased up too much. would love to see Congress think more about nonbanks.
RT @Dr_Phalin: Finally had a moment to catch up on the latest in inflation & macro research from @Claudia_Sahm. Love her straightforward, p…
damn, I log off Twitter for a bit and it goes to hell in a hand basket. wow, what a smack down …. https://t.co/J2DmubnbKB
today working through great comments from @Econ_Marshall and @avdluduvice -- each of their papers are in our report. PS always good to check with the experts that you have not butchered their papers. PPS Marshall is a tough but fair critic :-)
walk done. rest of my day is for editing (no tweeting!) our very-soon-to be released @jainfamilyinst report: "Macroeconomic Effects of Guaranteed Income: Case Study of the Child Tax Credit" critically evaluate and summarize 6 macro research studies for a policy audience.
RT @graykimbrough: American elites regularly go through a cycle of criticizing how poor parents raise their children. But we don't talk en…
RT @_HolyMacro: Choose happiness; it’s free and feels amazing! 🤗
RT @economistmom: We’re having a hearing today! Why just sit around wondering and worrying if the government will shut down and/or default?…
RT @Claudia_Sahm: @yudapearl I agree that failure is the best teacher!
@yudapearl I agree that failure is the best teacher!
RT @Claudia_Sahm: @yudapearl I learn an incredible amount by ruthlessly testing my economic stories as new data and research roll in. black…
RT @yudapearl: @Claudia_Sahm Why? Have you tried? I've learned a lot by just trying, even when failed.
@yudapearl I learn an incredible amount by ruthlessly testing my economic stories as new data and research roll in. black box models are limited in telling us what is driving the world. everyone has their approach. mine adapts over time and I’m happy to consider new approaches.
I’m not arguing the benefits of judgmental forecasting in Twitter this morning. you can see why I need to write the Substack post. and you need to get a paid subscription. https://t.co/s4rqYmVFsR
@DavidLund6 again, happy to see and tools but people are not replaceable in the forecasting and macro analysis for policymakers
PS no one should not mechanize my econ brain. it’s way more surly than its public face. I am also an extremely non linear thinker. code would be an unholy mess. 😀
good luck with that … https://t.co/PpyeYW9HQd
RT @MollyRose_Good: Tell me more how poor people need to learn financial literacy when these are the policy fights of the elite 🙄🙄🙄
mind of, we use hundreds of statistical models — every flavor that exists. data and statistics are necessary but not sufficient.
nah. computer programs are a long way from the process of the staff’s judgement forecast … our biggest add? we tell the economic story. numbers are not as important as the why, helps policymakers know what to look for in the world and the key conditioning factors … https://t.co/yUEdY7GIyf
RT @CrewsCutts: @Claudia_Sahm Correction: delete “during COVID” and insert “of all time.”
RT @hangingnoodles: Extremely important that we get savvier about the limits of machine learning / stats eg Hard Logical Limits of Stats…
RT @Noahpinion: The bipartisan infrastructure bill would be a huge win for progressivism. It would get rid of lead water pipes in America.…
RT @kevinriggle: This s is similar of course to how it works for stocks (it’s not), the aggregate of analyst expectations is how the stock…
RT @kevinriggle: “Mainstream academic macroeconomists and central bankers latched onto the idea decades ago that inflation expectations wer…
PhD macroeconomists should read his paper after my post. you’ll benefit from the Fed context of his paper I give and his theory section in the paper is top notch. we should all discuss the paper. https://t.co/gCuuclMOK2
do read my Substack post about Jeremy Rudd’s paper on inflation expectations. https://t.co/KxhNFPavUZ I’ve gotten very positive feedback on how accessible my post is and I gives context to the heated debate it stirred up last week.
woke up feeling bad about nagging @LHSummers @ojblanchard1 @jasonfurman @TimDuy to read Jeremy Rudd’s paper. Olivier is right I was insulting and for no good reason. I could explain why but you’re right, I’m sorry. I do think you’ll like the paper, especially the theory part.
RT @wgoggin: @Claudia_Sahm As you know, if the data are consistent with two very different underlying causal mechanisms, those data cannot…
RT @drlisadcook: Great annual opportunity for macro job market students to read and refine your JMPs from @Claudia_Sahm!
PPS students/teachers, if you want a paid subscription for free, please email me: stayathomemacro@gmail.com. PPPS people for whom $10 a month is not a burden you will also help me bring good macro to our next gen and general (interest in econ) public.
curious? sign up for a paid subscription here: https://t.co/s4rqYmVFsR PS based on clicks and feedback, it looks like my subscribers (paid and unpaid) are enjoying my posts. they take time to write. time is money. hint hint.
it's not a standard forecasting approach -- but it's an essential one -- I have a set of skills that frankly machine learning / statistical techniques can't replicate. I keep forgetting y'all don't have the same training, so I will share some basic principles and an example.
Q&A after my lecture on forecasting last night set topic for my first paid-subscriber only post: my approach to forecasting. was on the 'judgmental' staff forecast, we were taught how to combine model results (lots of models) and add in factors outside models, using our judgment
RT @nobrtshnyobjs: @Claudia_Sahm Resilience requires flexibility (slack) - I think this is a design/engineering problem arising from removi…