Lens 2021-09-15T18:12:15

Tweets

@nataliemj10 Was only on the tail end of this stuff but I still blow on my game cartridges too
Blog post: Media coverage of California's recall election highlights big issues with popular poll aggregation models https://t.co/CkPxoJjbbs FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics are unable to capture modern outliers or the impacts of non-response & different weighting schemes
Can we please (1) drop the term "ISIS bride" and (2) add "I'm sorry if I ever offended anyone" to the long list of crimes for which Shamima Begum should be indicted? https://t.co/hRQlVSJNFe
"Turkey needs at least one positive story for the decade, and this is a chance for them.” https://t.co/3NPJODKe8k
@jon_m_rob Read the Emerson TI reports
https://t.co/lAzioNBn02 https://t.co/xk05X95ZaN
Pleased to say I'm now a visiting fellow at the Department of War Studies (@warstudies) at King's College London (@KingsCollegeLon). No change to my work at The Economist, but hopefully I'll absorb more of their great research on defence & security. Thanks to @josephdevanny. https://t.co/gjxjASAeJ8
Listen to the (good) polls, folks!
Aaand there it is folks! Early vote-by-mail results in California's recall election are way ahead of tied-race benchmarks and signal an imminent victory for Governor Gavin Newsom, possibly by high double digits. I'm going to bed early tonight https://t.co/mrYcPp3rl4 https://t.co/8k0DgQr8l7 https://t.co/6Z0HXeqsNY
@joshchafetz Poor baby stubbsy
@joshchafetz https://t.co/IKQ8BNXsIA
@gelliottmorris lol LA early is +53 right now
final thing and now off to bed: big win for political science research tonight https://t.co/uIyMcHNmow
@jonfavs @Nate_Cohn I think it’s partly that (see below for model results showing what happens if we control for non-response), but also that the conventional wisdom about the trend of the race has been skewed dramatically by one or two outlier polls that dragged down the avg https://t.co/CkPxoJjbbs
@pbump how long you been holding on to this be honest
The level of excitement and tension in #CARecall has reached presidential level—specifically, the elections of 1964, 1972, and 1984.
@jon_m_rob @RyanDEnos @mattyglesias @b_schaffner I was gonna say
RT @aseitzwald: Wonder if any Republicans are re-thinking the strategy of making it harder for their base to vote by convincing them not to…
@norwalkiian @contra_cult I see that you catch what I'm throwing down https://t.co/wo3KBdxV5N
@norwalkiian @contra_cult The reality is that Trafalgar found a way to conduct a poll that usually shows up closer than other polls. That worked in 2016 &2020 when most polls were being pulled around by non-response bias, but doesn't actually make them a good pollster. The rating model doesn't know that!
@norwalkiian @contra_cult The thing is, the ratings don't distinguish between getting an election right because your data and modeling are good vs getting an election "right" because your method is messy & mean-reverting in nature. That has always been a problem, but maybe people will actually see it now.
@pbump https://t.co/R8L6p7xHRN
we can do better https://t.co/CkPxoJjbbs
RT @JRubinBlogger: Big advantage of mail in ballots. You find out the winner(s) in like 10 minutes
seeing lots of "A-rated" pollsters on this list that had really wacky results for the recall -- and only brought them in line after they started weighting to the VBM data https://t.co/G4PSrKDyc0
just schedule the tweets for 11:01 pm next time, people
where is my award for beating dave by one hundred and twenty thousand microseconds https://t.co/1apchIT3aF
@lennybronner At this rate he'll rival Biden's margin in 2020
easy enough to see the writing on the wall in the exits. probably nearly 20 points. just waiting on actual votes now https://t.co/7e8LacEbFB
@lennybronner I think you're right. But... should easily beat that right?
ICYMI here's what I'm watching for tonight https://t.co/8k0DgQr8l7
@mattyglesias You love to see it
.@NobelPrize will y’all just give @SteveKornacki the peace prize already?
One big caveat is that all of this assumes that the partisan distribution of the populations of early voters and election-day voters tonight matches the distributions in 2020, & that relative county turnout matches — neither of which are obviously true. Just rough guides for now.
You don't call an election just based on one county, of course. But Los Angeles cast 25% of CA's votes in 2020 so it's a good guide. Other VBM benchmarks could be: Recall +11 in Orange County (+19D 2020 VBM = 30 overall :: -11D VBM = 0) Keep +3 in SD (+33D VBM = 30 :: 3D = 0)
The very fuzzy math here is that early mail ballots statewide (+40) were about 10 points more pro-Biden than the final results (+30) in California in 2020, and LA County (+45) was about 15 pts more Biden than the whole state. So +55 early LA = +30 CA-wide in the end. +25 = tied.
At this point, given the CA recall polling and VBM data, all we're looking for in the early vote tonight is confirmation of projected partisan distributions. Returned ballots are sufficiently Dem that we just need to assess loyalty + turnout. LA county VBM +25 Newsom would do it.
RT @TheEconomist: Explore our German election model, updated daily #BTW21 https://t.co/N2sYHuRG0V
You are not going to get people to ignore polls. Besides, they are the best tools we have for gauging opinion — and very normatively useful in non-electoral capacities. But you CAN improve the aggregate so you don't magnify errors for millions of readers! https://t.co/dD0HKXcgma
Regardless of what happens in the election, the bottom line is that modern statistical methods can provide better analyses of polling data than the stuff available ten years ago, especially (but not only) because of recent problems in the polling industry. Time to do better.
Expanding on what I've been saying here and elsewhere https://t.co/Zz8z3Okndv
enjoyable listening this AM https://t.co/40I3JI3owl
Using this line on all my future performance reviews https://t.co/hOFnMUpEoL
Pleased to announce his Honorable Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed is awarded first annual Montgomery Burns Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence https://t.co/Th3TmiFa3G
Protomolecule? 👀👀👀 https://t.co/h5vTyYGXaF
imagine thinking this is true, much less boasting about it right after losing a war https://t.co/rpsm9sTpRm
One constant throughout War on Terror has been people declaring victory at every moment something clearly bad happened. Every major suicide bombing was a “sign of desperation by the enemy” or “birth pangs of a new Middle East” for twenty years. Losing Afghanistan now a victory. https://t.co/pdLqtfzUaA
A very ominous story for a lot of countries in the region: Adjusted for inflation, food prices are higher now than at almost any time in the past six decades. "Food is more expensive today than it has been for the vast majority of modern recorded history." https://t.co/pBco8LDfeP
@SarahDadouch That's why today, in Amman, I intend to have a heart attack eating my body weight in Reem Shawerma.
Digital mercenaries: Three former American intelligence officers admitted in court that they broke the law to spy on behalf of the UAE, which hired them to hack journalists, dissidents and the Qatari government, among other targets. https://t.co/2RvgGaZP6Z
Dear journalist world, hire this young interviewer immediately. Great question. https://t.co/hE9MxOTK0m
Hassan Diab has been subpoenaed to appear for questioning on Monday as part of the investigation into the Beirut port explosion. He skipped town yesterday and flew to America https://t.co/4IWYy9EDh8
Tells a lot about how parties are stuck in their positions & how difficult it is for any mediator including the able diplomat @GeirOPedersen 2get them 2change their calculus. The conflict in #Syria today is at a stage every external party & #Syrian regime can live with 4long time https://t.co/7qMLNMfozt
There’s a lot of criticism of the mercenary behavior of DC think tanks, but, let’s be fair, some are more like career soldiers. https://t.co/ywj9njujtE
@glcarlstrom Truly a vindication of the scholar-statesman award
@glcarlstrom You and me both
America cannot "save Lebanon." Even if we set aside the fact that American policy in the region has been reliably incompetent and counterproductive for decades. It does not have a magic wand with which to simply wave away the many structural obstacles to real reform in Lebanon https://t.co/SEc1PNoSV6
Almost every story about both American and British politics these days leaves me thinking "you have how many million adult citizens and this is somehow the best you can come up with?" https://t.co/8LbF23Uk26
Female inspectors with the IAEA have been physically harassed by Iranian security guards at the Natanz nuclear facility over the past few months, including "inappropriate touching and orders to remove some clothing." https://t.co/BYR7naHKGf
If I'm following here, Syria makes a load of Captagon and ships it to the Gulf hidden inside Lebanese produce, which gets Lebanese farmers banned from the Saudi market, so... they smuggle their produce to Syria and ship it to the Gulf labeled as Syrian 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/WhovyI19PW
Strikes me as largely correct, and not only in Afghanistan. In the Middle East as well the whole narrative of "what's bad for America is good for China" is oversimplified and inaccurate. https://t.co/bgWHWZXMbO
"Much has been written about what people wore on Zoom calls during lockdowns (and what they did not wear: some retailers report that tops significantly outsold trousers in the past year and a half)." https://t.co/tR2nGVdIe2
شكرا .. ما تتعذبو https://t.co/LLcwVoNoGt
اذا مهتمين تتعرفوا اكتر على القصة الكاملة للضفدعتين اللي وقعو بالبير ووحدة منهن طلعت طرشا.. أليس وجدتها! https://t.co/gAoXO8g23q
The thing I hate about reshuffles is journalists tweeting “so and so might be going X, or maybe to Y, or maybe they’ll stay in place”: Lads, we’ll know in a few hours.
“Well judged moments of waspishness” is the nicest review. https://t.co/Vfh7eEG77z
In a similar spirit: I just accidentally dropped my Juul vape (with rich tobacco capsule) into a half drunk cup of cold instant black coffee. It’s now providing a much richer flavour. https://t.co/xhhjisRXXN
Sorry @stephenkb. I can’t un-see this. https://t.co/HkGVz8KLhe
I’ve already downed a cayenne-ginger kombucha. Thinking of ramping things up
Excellent chart from @OxfordEconomics UK labour “shortages” are really a series of sector specific stories. https://t.co/HncoDGpv5x
@sarahoconnor_ Almost a decade old… but superb. https://t.co/1KGcy2JbTk
@MollyJongFast Twitter can really be faster and more thorough than Google
TX is great at spending money to undermine Texans’ rights and well being. Just yesterday, TX paid $2.6m in attorney’s fees for Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt, the case involving cynical abortion clinic regulations the state unsuccessfully defended at SCOTUS in 2016. https://t.co/dsXJT6e4BO
@ishaantharoor Tweets like this are just one reason I love you, man.
Wherein the runner-up tweets his dominance over two people who also won't be governor of California https://t.co/DMGLYwoS18
What are people drinking for the CA recall returns?
@mattduss Come on, I bet half the people dunking on this haven't even read MBZ's scholarship...
My "Our government is stable and we will not randomly attack you" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt. https://t.co/gFJ2arNltj
Our piece on AUKUS, which the British government refers to as a "new defence alliance". The agreement, originally proposed by Australia, will be signed in Washington next week, presumably during @ScottMorrisonMP's visit to Washington between Sep 21-24. https://t.co/jGWI6nZ34p
That time Norm Macdonald didn’t come-out on Larry King… https://t.co/et2CkxZxvD
I did just shout to student son indentured labour to "warm up the nuts" for a snack at my desk. And now I have become a meme in my own workspace
The great underreported scandal is that jurisdictions are willing to pay out these settlements rather than end unconstitutional policing. https://t.co/5FcKqR2AmK
I'm VERY Team @TradeGovUK on this one. First, rolling over an EU FTA may not be exactly as hard as negotiating a fresh deal, but it's still an achievement and Whitehall rando anons who have never been in a negotiating room should probably shut the fuck up about how easy it is. https://t.co/acOxkYjhQL
No one should be comforted by the Milley news. Trump's instability and effort to overturn the election unfortunately inspired a new kind of norm violation. However well-intentioned it may have been, we don't want generals deciding to take over foreign policy from civilians. https://t.co/Ddq41NZH3J
I don’t care how many times I do it, it will ALWAYS take me about 7.3 seconds to be sure sure which one of the words is the “former” vs. which one is “latter”
*PLEASE CLAP* https://t.co/09lmEv29oO
@thorstenbenner @NewStatesman Also it took Merkel about 6 years to grow into first among equals role in the EU after winning by thinnest of margins and then having to pact with the SPD in 2005. New DE leader is going to be in a more fragile position because no one knows how long a 3 party coalition survives
@RobinWigg I guess "cautiously optimistic" is simpler language than "the confluence of extraneous circumstances that resulted in a presumed decimation of the Treasury resources at the group's disposal following the embezzlement orchestrated by the finance director".
Excited to learn from @SaraDoskow that Radical American Partisanship w/ @LilyMasonPhD is set for a May 2022 release (if all goes well). Available at MPSA if that's an in-person thing. It'll be hard to wait, but I realize this @UChicagoPress guy's conjuring speed is limited. https://t.co/NGJBISvN6W
Apologising ahead of time https://t.co/RAgaoyeX3R
“I’m pretty sure, I’m not a doctor — but I’m pretty sure if you die, the cancer dies at the same time. That’s not a loss. That’s a draw.” - Norm Macdonald Rest, Norm… https://t.co/UDclRTu6hk
House Democrats' tax plan would meet primary commitments of the global agreement that is being negotiated through the OECD "This is more than just tweaks... These are material moves being proposed on how foreign income is taxed," per one expert Via @arappeport https://t.co/OLQNAGRplt
Seriously the only Met Gala thread you need—Met Gala attendees as political science books. (@raugpott—she nailed it on yours!) https://t.co/zcWeZWdlXc
How is milley at fault for trying to stop nuclear war? https://t.co/a9Vbe0GsDu
This is madness https://t.co/x2TMTAXSmQ
New w/@gr_ashford: NY's new independent redistricting commission will release its first proposed congressional maps tomorrow, but Dems in DC and Albany are already quietly jockeying to sideline it and knock out as many as 5 GOP-held seats. https://t.co/glHqmdfvMN
Alright, update on @doordash at 1323 E Street SE. It's a long thread, but here's the gist. DCRA has admitted that DoorDash is not providing the required loading or parking spaces but has invented a grandfathering clause and is going to allow doordash to operate here. https://t.co/z55EwBQ6oR https://t.co/P0QbvDz3Hr
House bill raises chances for global pact to curb corporate tax havens, but many matters remain unresolved ahead of late October deadline. https://t.co/uvp8BjW6Rd
The M.T.A. will withhold death benefits from unvaccinated workers. https://t.co/axCQb7Wcge
How House Democrats Plan to Raise $2.9 Trillion for a Safety Net w/ @ESCochrane https://t.co/7Gr40MkIR5
RT @W7VOA: US joining #Canada, #EU, #ROK, #Norway, #Switzerland and #UK to co-sponsor an @OECD proposal seeking "to end official export fi…
RT @BCAppelbaum: The people using Bitcoin are basically a bunch of cosplay libertarians participating in a game of make-believe on the play…
...right then https://t.co/Mh0942hPgK by @e_casalicchio https://t.co/iuCTx9jRk0
RT @DmitryOpines: I'm VERY Team @TradeGovUK on this one. First, rolling over an EU FTA may not be exactly as hard as negotiating a fresh…
We saw a large rise in @ONS consumer prices this month. CPIH rose to 3% in August from 2.1% in July and CPI to 3.2% from 2%. 🧵👇(1/n) https://t.co/8EFZu527qG
This is just amazing. Conan’s reaction makes it. https://t.co/HNZULKQnUj
https://t.co/9CozdM8z7n https://t.co/BLFQAQB6xe
Von der Leyen is right. The EU was correctly criticised at the beginning of the year for its vaccine scheme. It got its act together and is now among the world's leaders. The EU green pass works flawlessly – probably better than any other region.
I just want the final disclosure docs to see how much Parscale got paid.
In 2008 I won a stand-up contest at the WPB improv & got to open for Norm Macdonald. I was so nervous but he was unbelievably nice, hysterical & encouraging. He joked with everyone in the green room & offered punch ups & advice. It was incredible. We lost a real legend today. https://t.co/daXR2181Hj
The recall failed, but it cost nearly $300M, all while wildfires ravage our state. Sure I'm relieved, but this is a crisis. These are urgent threats to our planet and democracy that will take much more from all of us than winning one election.
Did not think this was going to happen when this started. But I was way too optimistic. https://t.co/J8y4ILVqJN
Lots of focus on Gen. Milley’s concerns about Trump after January 6th as described in Woodward’s book. But the more concerning and potentially explosive revelations - esp to the Jan 6th investigation - are abt Bannon & Trump. https://t.co/Dwvozxbrkq https://t.co/WxPfVAm8sU
True, true, true. But it's damn hard not to be celebrating when you live here. https://t.co/h2YekRHONj
Dan Patrick: You’re not going to make us have a vaccination to get on an airplane or go to restaurant… Now I’ve been vaccinated… https://t.co/Q9hzvKGfpZ
His “predictions” are threats. https://t.co/5Uu91ykbnQ
MORE OF THIS! https://t.co/Q9TwQIOwXq
Lots of great Norm Macdonald clips but this one is especially good because Larry King is such a perfect, um, straight man. https://t.co/DrsFxc1nrI
Because of course Prince recognized Norm Macdonald was a genius… https://t.co/SaMBVt7jkf
1/ So Gavin Newsom prevailed and Larry Elder has conceded. But before the California recall election he was on about voter fraud and “shenanigans” and he set up a website to report it and everything. So what changed? The margin of victory was just too great to try and con people?
This is the modern GOP base. This is what they want! @Kevin_Faulconer doesn’t share my politics but he’s a plausible governor of CA and a Republican and a former mayor and he’s got…less than 10% of the vote. https://t.co/SUUpa9kVmp
Never forget this Norm Macdonald appearance on Conan in 1997 — with Courtney Thorne-Smith. Hilarious. All of it. Rest In Peace, Norm… https://t.co/LQRMT3fCN7
4 of the funniest guys ever at this table. He was an another level good. Rest In Peace Norm McDonald. https://t.co/6ta8HqaCsv
Norm Macdonald on Bill Cosby. Rest, Norm…https://t.co/38KHwCwBwF
5/ …audaciously fleecing a subset of the population that has had its brains liquified by Fox News. We need to isolate and ostracize the nonsense pushers and declare war on stupid. Anyone Hollerith voter fraud before the next election anywhere should get laughed out of the…
4/ It’s a bad joke devoid of ideas and juiced up on the adrenaline rush of smashing norms with rhetorical baseball bats. There are not two parties in America. There’s one functioning party, imperfect thought it may be, and one gang of pickpockets and shell-game street hustlers…
3/ …accept that a certain amount of anti-democracy hogwash will come with each vote? Nuts to that garbage. This is childish, shameful and damn awful dangerous. I know folks are sick of it, but they need to raise holy hell about it. Don’t treat this party like it’s legitimate.
2/ Is this transparent GOP bullsh*t what we have to deal with in every election now? They scream RIGGED! before the vote, then if the vote is close they keep screaming it, otherwise they just drop and it and move on to the next grift? And we’re just supposed to sit back and…
Like all Canadians I will be spending the remainder of my evening watching the best of Norm MacDonald.
Kornacki is go for his roll program.
@HeerJeet “Hey hey hey - easy buddy.”
This might be better than the Last Dance #30For30 #LGM https://t.co/RCZG2K5czR
Norm Macdonald on Bill Maher… https://t.co/KeMwFYXQZA
Sad right now that we’re all just gonna celebrate and mourn Norm Macdonald’s death this week for a moment and Michael K. Williams’ death last week and then move right along. Let’s normalize alive-appreciation.
“Death is a funny thing. Not funny haha, like a Woody Allen movie, but funny strange, like a Woody Allen marriage” - Norm MacDonald https://t.co/WjMAMwrCEn
There was no one like Norm MacDonald ; Every time I watched him perform was a gift. Thank you Norm … thinking of you and your family on this sad day. https://t.co/BfEtja3tqB
“Why do dogs always race to the door when the doorbell rings? It’s almost never for them.” - Norm MacDonald.
@RexChapman Rex, apparently @DEADLINE did not get that memo: https://t.co/21rzx4aa4n
93 and still writing songs. #livinglegend https://t.co/Z6Xj1iRFNf https://t.co/pIquyZZ2c5
Gavin Newsom after beating Larry Elder in the recall https://t.co/tb9eM32mDg
$250 million for a vote that was called in 30 mins. Solid.
@ManMadeMoon @RexChapman They missed one.
If the judge grants the motion, women who are more than six weeks pregnant will again be able to get abortions in Texas while the lawsuit proceeds. There is no schedule yet for when the judge will rule. - h/t @dnlbrns
The Department of Justice has filed a motion in federal court asking a judge to temporarily block enforcement of Texas’ restrictive abortion law. This motion was filed as part of a lawsuit against the state seeking to fully overturn the law.
"Go get the fucking shot." #GetVaccinatedNow https://t.co/aTQAwulBMU
@RexChapman Gene Hackman, Mel Brooks, Clint Eastwood, Willie Nelson. Tom Brady.
I feel incredibly relieved the likes of Larry Elder and Caitlyn Jenner didn’t become the governor. I also feel like I hope Newsom does a better job than he has. https://t.co/4flHLwp086
@RexChapman @vargvargas Honestly, at first I had the same reaction — 1) who's not appreciating each other while we're alive during a pandemic? 2) who didn't appreciate Michael K when he was alive (in our community anyway)? 3) and who's moving on from mourning him?
@rebel19 At the time. What an experience.
@rebel19 🤯🤯🤯wow!!! Hilarious and awesome.
@rebel19 The best ever. I’ll never get over it
Damn. https://t.co/poPce9Iu6q
Anti-vaxxer’s are gargling iodine. “If you’re in the ER and someone has a wound to sew it up, you use it to clean with.” When told that anti-vaxxers had taken to gargling w Betadine, Emergency Room Dr. Kenneth Weinberg said, “F**k me! Of course they are.”https://t.co/NFxS1JGjCB
I’d long forgotten this and I’ve watched it 30-times now. Art. Rest In Peace, Norm.
Omg. Wait for all of it https://t.co/eWRQk64D1f
“I guess we can agree to disagree.” Rest, Norm… https://t.co/NWbL0f7zTO
Smells like losing and COVID in here https://t.co/uij07IJV2T
All in the same year, we have lost a very special, very funny man. And one of the finest straight men in the business. At least they worked together once: https://t.co/qejVdmdxeE
😮 https://t.co/rrQggGOLnV
Caitlin Jenner threw transgender children under the bus for a vanity project that ended in failure. For shame.
I once played poker with Norm Macdonald and gushed about how funny I thought he was. “Eh,” he said, “I’m a low-rent Andy Kaufman.”
@houseflyOTH @RexChapman Hot damn! That made my night. Thank you! ♥️
So let me get this straight, it took Dan Quayle to convince lying bigot Mike Pence to actually follow the law by doing his duty in certifying the election results instead of almost committing sedition to do his normal sycophancy thing? That’s both sad and scary AF.
Wearing a mask sucks. I hate it. It’s brutal. It won’t hurt someone else. But not wearing one might hurt someone else. I just don’t understand the logic and/or reasoning behind not wearing one. It’s the antithesis of being a good teammate.
The Trinidad & Tobago Health Minister is debunking the “swollen testicles” story. How is this real life!? https://t.co/a722flqNP5
“Court Marshal”. We’re not sending our best and brightest. https://t.co/ATuPWE6OWZ
Someone earlier asked me how much hard drive space it takes up to record an entire Saturday of college football. Here's your answer (this is minus one game, AppySt-UMiami which I need to catch tonight's ACCN rerun of to patch in some missing plays): 1.08 TB. https://t.co/J7qTDAo3Hi
This is great. Will absolutely be visiting it at some point in the distant future. @CJMcCollum and his wife investing in 318 acres in prime wine country. https://t.co/BOr15FvB0N
@JHova42 @RexChapman Wait until I tell you about Mike Pence
@daraobriain @RexChapman https://t.co/S3ylTvUt3y
Life is too short to hide your feelings. If you've got something to say, say it.
I had completely forgotten about this clip. Just about died watching it now. https://t.co/3q9GSfz3Lw
Wow, so many levels. Wife and I just howled, now I want to sob. https://t.co/PuesRAsfk5
We need a law that fines people for requesting recounts if there is no evidence found of tampering.
@jco871 @trax123 @SmithBrianA @RexChapman This is the J-100 it was written and recorded on. https://t.co/Qfi1NpTbO4
@JeffgrimJeff @RexChapman @SmithBrianA Steve is a like a brother to me. I love him, but he is Grumpy. This is my fave pic that he and BFG texted me a few years ago: https://t.co/4m9u5TIKnH
@JeffgrimJeff @RexChapman @SmithBrianA Steve ALWAYS looks that way. You’ve heard of Standing Bitchface? Steve has Standing Curmudgeonface.
@SmithBrianA @RexChapman This is him, Scott Joss, and Steve Earle sitting in the front row of the other one https://t.co/o5EMx6iMZS
@SmithBrianA @RexChapman I have hosted two separate Tributes to Kris, for which tickets were sold. They were grand affairs. This was one of them: https://t.co/EkPC2HXY4f
@RexChapman I worked with Kris many years ago. We became good friends. Whenever I get to KY for that Coffee With Rex, I’ll tell you a bunch of great stories about him.
Phenomenal. https://t.co/AvbqLPBguC
Norm Macdonald loved golf almost as much as he loved making us laugh. RIP Norm ⛳ https://t.co/6nm8WIB42C
Troll level 10000000000000 🔥 https://t.co/WAJ9WjcnDp #NormMacdonald #hilarious
Conan's face. 😂😂😂😂😂 https://t.co/2xF1o1ZaTs
@RexChapman I wrote about this exact thing when Bourdain left us. Seeing Willie Nelson made me realize it. Say wonderful things while they’re here! https://t.co/0tu0jhNCKq
Still miss him every day #Dunderislegend https://t.co/1m2PkFcyit
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 https://t.co/N8EpDM5yQD
Good. https://t.co/k2YVdJngsl
THIRTY-SIX YEARS. And in a decade of iconic theme songs, this one still sits on the Mt. Rushmore. https://t.co/Ggv8tNTQIY
And so I will. Here’s in appreciation of you, Rex — your journey, your recovery, your transparency, your dedication to carving out a place for humanity in social media. You’ve made a difference. P.S. Don’t take that as license to go anywhere… https://t.co/aoIUPJi5lp
That time when Larry King didn't realize he was playing the role of Lou Costello. https://t.co/oKVSjDRsCD
OH SWEET AESCULAPIUS'S NAME *NOW* WHAT??!! (hides eyes) (WTF WTF WTF) ...*NOT* the damn Betadine. GAAAAAAHHHHH. https://t.co/6nNqfzKdh4 https://t.co/PHArJ4yiBc
How this story didn’t end with Norm and Courtney getting married is beyond me. https://t.co/i82u7Cvdqd
Found a sweet pic of Norm MacDonald when he was a young kid. Just hanging on the couch. But I guarantee you… he was still the funniest person in that room. https://t.co/gUZH4XPAka
Milos Forman loved Norm MacDonald. Cast him as 60 Minutes producer Don Hewitt in “The People vs Larry Flynt” and as comedian Michael Richards in “Man on the Moon.” But, of course, in both films he was Norm MacDonald. https://t.co/3waVvBEwfE
Did my Californian Civic Duty by voting “No” on the recall ✅ 🗣 Get out there & vote, you have until 8pm 🇺🇸 https://t.co/uhyJcYhrD4
@RexChapman @daraobriain A+ just so damn good
@RexChapman This. Thank you, buddy ❤️
@RexChapman Well … may I suggest Roundup ? It trimmed my bush .
Watching this Larry Nassar hearing where a bunch of old white men are asking a bunch of young girls about their sexual abuse at the hands of a predator. I can’t even. We need far more women in office.
RIP norm dude was a beast https://t.co/vHJbnvfy4z
@CashMoney99999 @PHL_BirdsFlyers @RexChapman But that means you're so closeted... That I refuse to say I'm gay... Right.... Exactly...
@RexChapman He just strikes me as a guy who doesn't try to be funny. He just is funny. If you're having dinner with the guy, some food is going to be coming out of your nose at least twice.
And lives changed forever! https://t.co/NBgxIrtW5p
@RexChapman Appreciate you man. We gotta get the Wonders on the podcast!
@wingoz @RexChapman this is fantastic
@RexChapman One of the BEST shows ever!
Norm Macdonald's appearance on Late Night with @ConanOBrien in 1996, telling the story of the time he was on the receiving end of a Dennis Rodman headbutt. https://t.co/z0gvMJY4ty
😂 https://t.co/RdS8z3Lsox
We’re out at sea riding a rogue wave. https://t.co/so2nwFPWju
We start the show remembering Norm Macdonald ❤️ https://t.co/qo8tJr1R4L
@RexChapman Needed this Rex. Thank you ! Norm was the greatest.
RT @AoDespair: All in the same year, we have lost a very special, very funny man. And one of the finest straight men in the business. At le…
@seanoneal Hits hard. Damn.
RT @seanoneal: I think about these two and a half pages from Norm Macdonald’s book constantly. When I reviewed it, I wrote that they would…
RT @RexChapman: Omg. Wait for all of it
RT @RexChapman: Legit spit-take
RT @RexChapman: I’d long forgotten this and I’ve watched it 30-times now. Art. Rest In Peace, Norm.
@thierrychanu @StationSimone 🔥🔥🔥
40-years ago — the voice of Rindy Ross & Quarter Flash - "Harden my Heart"… https://t.co/nm1DfFOzXC
@BrianKarem 😂🤷‍♂️
RT @BrianKarem: https://t.co/7diPB84zty
RT @HeerJeet: Lots of great Norm Macdonald clips but this one is especially good because Larry King is such a perfect, um, straight man.
RT @akjakalope: @RexChapman This. Thank you, buddy ❤️
RT @justmike: RIP norm dude was a beast
RT @blumenfeld: @RexChapman lol
@Ed_OBannon @RetroNewsNow I hear you Ed
RT @Ed_OBannon: @RetroNewsNow @RexChapman 7th grade Peary jr high field trip, went to see 227 in person ..I swear to this day Regina King l…
@Howsito @ConanOBrien 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
RT @Howsito: Norm Macdonald's appearance on Late Night with @ConanOBrien in 1996, telling the story of the time he was on the receiving end…
RT @KarenGrigsby: And my life was better for it.
RT @tomsegura: This is so legendary. I remember watching it. Norm was easily one of the best ever. So effortlessly funny. Total master. RIP
RT @RexChapman: This one hurts. Rest, Norm…
RT @stiles: Or forget this gem. 🐐
RT @DanRyckert: Norm lost Mangrate as a podcast sponsor because of how he did the ad reads, but to this day he's still the only reason I kn…
Thread… https://t.co/5hasdajV5U
RT @daraobriain: Gutted. Was supposed to be attending a wedding in Trinidad, but it’s just been cancelled. Family won’t say why.
RT @RetroNewsNow: 📺DEBUT: ‘227’ premiered 36 years ago, September 14, 1985, on NBC https://t.co/RBnklGdiAI
RT @Ian_Fraser: This video speaks volumes about the oversupply in China's housing market. 15 tower blocks in Kunming 昆明, the capital of Yun…
RT @RexChapman: 3:21 of Norm Macdonald gold. Howard Stern may be the greatest interviewer alive. Rest In Peace, Norm…
RT @RexChapman: That time Norm Macdonald didn’t come-out on Larry King… https://t.co/et2CkxZxvD
RT @DaveBlezard: I've spent about 7 hours watching Norm clips today and feel like I've barely scratched the surface of his brilliance... an…
RT @PaulReindlSD: RIP to Norm Macdonald, one of the absolute GOATS 😔 So many clips to choose from but this scene from Billy Madison ALWAYS…
RT @SoloFlow786: Seinfeld described them perfectly but if you toast the brown sugar ones they are pretty good. https://t.co/Zc4Wuiy5lu
RT @RexChapman: 57-years ago today Kellogg’s gave us ‘Pop-Tarts’… https://t.co/rXmvxYQTOh
RT @kbeatt: @RexChapman Brown Sugar is the correct answer
RT @glitznglam420: Wait until the end if you need a laugh so hard you’ll cry 🤣🤣
57-years ago today Kellogg’s gave us ‘Pop-Tarts’… https://t.co/rXmvxYQTOh
RT @RexChapman: “Until I met my wife I always felt incomplete. Now I’m finished.”
“Until I met my wife I always felt incomplete. Now I’m finished.” https://t.co/eWRQk64D1f
RT @RexChapman: Genius. A guaranteed laugh. Rest, Norm…
@chrislhayes 1 in 500. Unreal
RT @chrislhayes: Did not think this was going to happen when this started. But I was way too optimistic.
@SteveMartinToGo @pattonoswalt 💔
RT @SteveMartinToGo: We loved Norm MacDonald. One of a kind.
RT @pattonoswalt: NOOOOO GODDAMIT. Oh my God what is even happening. Good bye, Norm. You were never not 100% hilarious.
RT @RonanReigns: NBC Executive Don Ohlmeyer, a friend of OJ Simpson, threatened to fire Norm Macdonald if he continued calling Simpson a mu…
RT @RonanReigns: 18 months after Norm Macdonald was fired by NBC, he was invited back to host SNL. This was his monologue 👑 https://t.co/m4…
@Sifill_LDF @TBrown_80 💔
RT @Sifill_LDF: The great underreported scandal is that jurisdictions are willing to pay out these settlements rather than end unconstituti…
Comedy. “Suing.” Lol. https://t.co/zebtZqFfkq
RT @LeBatardShow: 🙏 https://t.co/FJN1668UgS
RT @kenjeong: https://t.co/1rhO47hITz
RT @RexChapman: 36-years ago today “The Golden Girls” premiered on NBC… https://t.co/0rU6OY2d3x
RT @DannyDeraney: @RexChapman I always think about The Amazing Shapiro. St. Olaf’s famous OBMAG. https://t.co/PrHmxycUj1
RT @RedHourBen: 4 of the funniest guys ever at this table. He was an another level good. Rest In Peace Norm McDonald.
@Evan_M_G 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
RT @Evan_M_G: One of my favourite lesser known Norm bits was simply his recounting a moment from Kojak — effortless virtuoso stuff. #NormMa…
@keithedwards 🤣🤣🤣💔💔💔
Genius. A guaranteed laugh. Rest, Norm… https://t.co/UegSQAbgjw
RT @DaveWeasel: “Death is a funny thing. Not funny haha, like a Woody Allen movie, but funny strange, like a Woody Allen marriage” - Norm M…
RT @richardmarx: 93 and still writing songs. #livinglegend https://t.co/pIquyZZ2c5
RT @TitusNation: Wow, so many levels. Wife and I just howled, now I want to sob.
RT @JohnSchaech: @RexChapman Appreciate you man. We gotta get the Wonders on the podcast!
@JohnSchaech Let’s go! I’m ready.
RT @peterframpton: We’re out at sea riding a rogue wave.
RT @journorosa: Ottawa Bureau Chief Joyce Napier interviewed her brother-in-law Norm Macdonald in 2018 on @ctvqp. Here are some highlights.…
RT @JohnFugelsang: “There are two things which a man should scrupulously avoid: giving advice that he would not follow, and asking advice w…
RT @JimBelushi: “Why do dogs always race to the door when the doorbell rings? It’s almost never for them.” - Norm MacDonald.
RT @marcmaron: Norm Macdonald has passed away. He was one of the best comics ever. After we talked in 2011 I couldn't believe what an amazi…
RT @WUTangKids: This might be better than the Last Dance #30For30 #LGM https://t.co/RCZG2K5czR
This Mets doc is so damn good.
RT @didix8x7x: @ZKForTre I'm noticing both left and right ideologues expressing mourning of this loss. When does that ever happen? Truly a…
@WEarlBrown @SmithBrianA 💪💪💪💪💪💪💪💪💪❤️❤️
RT @WEarlBrown: @SmithBrianA @RexChapman I have hosted two separate Tributes to Kris, for which tickets were sold. They were grand affairs.…
@WEarlBrown @SmithBrianA 💪❤️❤️
RT @WEarlBrown: @SmithBrianA @RexChapman This is him, Scott Joss, and Steve Earle sitting in the front row of the other one https://t.co/o5…
RT @dduane: OH SWEET AESCULAPIUS'S NAME *NOW* WHAT??!! (hides eyes) (WTF WTF WTF) ...*NOT* the damn Betadine. GAAAAAAHHHHH. https://t.co/PH…
RT @daniellynch: The vaccine is free.
RT @WEarlBrown: @RexChapman I worked with Kris many years ago. We became good friends. Whenever I get to KY for that Coffee With Rex, I’ll…
@RicBucher Flattery, Ric.☺️
@ianbremmer @DEADLINE 🤷‍♂️
RT @ianbremmer: @RexChapman Rex, apparently @DEADLINE did not get that memo: https://t.co/21rzx4aa4n
RT @RexChapman: Sad right now that we’re all just gonna celebrate and mourn Norm Macdonald’s death this week for a moment and Michael K. Wi…
@KVanValkenburg Team game. Thanks❤️💔
RT @KVanValkenburg: @RexChapman I wrote about this exact thing when Bourdain left us. Seeing Willie Nelson made me realize it. Say wonderfu…
RT @wingoz: 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
RT @RexChapman: Anti-vaxxer’s are gargling iodine. “If you’re in the ER and someone has a wound to sew it up, you use it to clean with.”…
RT @ProFootballTalk: That time when Larry King didn't realize he was playing the role of Lou Costello.
RT @RexChapman: “I’m pretty sure, I’m not a doctor — but I’m pretty sure if you die, the cancer dies at the same time. That’s not a loss. T…
RT @QuoteDigging: @RexChapman "We often suffer more from our fears, than from the dangers of our situation." --Norm MacDonald
RT @MarciaMoore4: Love that half the room doesn’t get this
RT @DaveJWilkes: SO funny. 10/10 for the whole bit. And he’s laughing at it himself. Love thisz
Larry thought he had a big scoop https://t.co/oTmRB55Zae
@davidcrosss 💔💔cannot imagine
RT @davidcrosss: Just gutted about Norm. When I was going through a tough time after I was publicly defined as a "racist p.o.s." Norm Macdo…
@vargvargas Mf? Kinda strong.🤷‍♂️🤣
@SentaMosesMikan It’s actually @MrJoshHopkins idea. Team game.
RT @SentaMosesMikan: I love this idea, Rex. I'd like to give a shout-out to incomparable Holly Hunter...Talented, unique, smart, funny, b…
RT @RexChapman: “It was tragic - at the time.” Rest In Peace, Norm…
RT @MattWinerTV: Norm in a nutshell. Hilarious and completely unconcerned about playing the game.
RT @RexChapman: This is a lie told by a racist.
RT @RexChapman: 7-minutes is a big ask on Twitter, I know. But please watch this. Among other things the company who manufactures Ivermec…
RT @rebel19: @RexChapman May I encourage you to read my memoir Surviving the White Gaze, in which I recount the time I was publicly humilia…
RT @RexChapman: “That’s not my name.”
RT @RexChapman: Norm Macdonald on The View. Rest, Norm. “I thought it was a matter of record.”
RT @ComedyCentral: Norm Macdonald’s appearance at the Roast of Bob Saget was unlike anything ever seen before. Watch this legendary clip wi…
@rebel19 I tend to avoid these things because I hate my feelings.
“earned his master’s from Oxford in 1960, returned to California, married his HS sweetheart, joined the Army, & learned to fly helicopters. In the Army, he wrote funny songs inspired by Hank Williams, until he fell under the sway of folk maestro Bob Dylan.”https://t.co/Lri5X0X4Cl
“By the 1960s, most prominent country musicians viewed music as a way out of poverty and struggle. A child of privilege, Kristofferson was among the first (if not the first) country music stars to remove the silver spoon from his mouth and seek an artistic destination.” 2/3
I’ll start: Kris Kristofferson: “Oxford scholar, defensive back, bartender, Golden Gloves boxer, dancer, forest-fighter, road crew member, and an Army Ranger who flew helicopters. A revolutionary peacenik, an actor, a superstar, a Casanova, and a family man.” 1/3 https://t.co/PCdWyxU83F
RT @betterthanezra: We are saddened by the news of Norm Macdonald. He was a hilarious man and an absolute legend. Thankful to have been the…
@JulieNesrallah @LanaGay 💪
RT @JulieNesrallah: Yo! @LanaGay ♥️
RT @RexChapman: Norm Macdonald on Bill Cosby. Rest, Norm…https://t.co/38KHwCwBwF
RT @pattonoswalt: seriously this really hurts
RT @RexChapman: “Can’t believe Norm MacDonald is dead. First met him in the mid 80s. I thought he was way too funny to be successful. I was…
@byDavidGardner 💔making me laugh in death
RT @byDavidGardner: Norm MacDonald on battles with cancer: “I’m pretty sure, I’m not a doctor, but I’m pretty sure if you die, the cancer d…
7-minutes is a big ask on Twitter, I know. But please watch this. Among other things the company who manufactures Ivermectin and is profiting from its sale is saying the drug has no scientific capability for preventing or curing COVID… https://t.co/X4RLAdDO7A
💔 https://t.co/jn4RQDPSNm
“Can’t believe Norm MacDonald is dead. First met him in the mid 80s. I thought he was way too funny to be successful. I was half right.” -Dave Foley https://t.co/7SBAddMt46
3:21 of Norm Macdonald gold. Howard Stern may be the greatest interviewer alive. Rest In Peace, Norm… https://t.co/KoQVJxEtkH
RT @WUTangKids: Norm Macdonald doing OJ jokes on SNL’s Weekend Update for which he got fired over because then NBC president told him to kn…
RT @chelahhorsdal: This is for sure the greatest 37 seconds i've spent since the beginning of covid.
RT @DaveBlezard: I'm gonna be tweeting a lot about Norm MacDonald today. What a legend. RIP
RT @shalisemyoung: seen every episode at least 5 times each...
RT @Kanew: Loving all the Norm clips everyone’s posting. So much gold. Hope he knew how appreciated he really was.
RT @timwilliamsart: This is Norm at his best. Watch Seinfeld's reactions.
@_MsKilljoy @pattonoswalt 💪
RT @_MsKilljoy: @RexChapman Shoutout to @pattonoswalt
It’s Election Day, California! Check out my buddy Sam Youngman’s story on the race and Just Say NO! https://t.co/dRTCRqeVNX
@RexChapman lmao larry really thought he was getting a big reveal
@RexChapman Steve Martin - was selling out arenas doing stand up, great actor, author, screenplays, Broadway playwright, banjo player, art collector, supports indigenous Australian artists, numerous awards.
I sure am going to miss “Turd Ferguson”… https://t.co/LCwLIGzCnO https://t.co/8oiofJ6gom
Chugging horse dewormer is so last week... try to keep up, folks! https://t.co/DqfMlRKwxl
Dang. https://t.co/TAHq0GxtwF
@RexChapman I don’t know what I would do if one of my family members couldn’t get admitted to the ER because of these idiots.
The fact that Larry King couldn't wrap his head around the joke and thought Norm was being serious made it 10x better - compared to Conan who got it pretty much straight off the bat. #RIPNormMacDonald https://t.co/osuKNnPGVI
@RexChapman Wine, nose, sinuses the burn... dammit. 🍷😂😂😂😂
Lmfao... How have I never seen this? https://t.co/FLZ1rQXrkQ
@RexChapman Brown Sugar is the correct answer
@RexChapman I think if we are honest with ourselves, everyone at some point has looked at a bottle of betadine and wondered “Why can’t I drink this?” and “If it cleans my outsides, why can’t it clean my insides?”
@WEarlBrown @RexChapman You could sell tickets to this, y’all.
@didix8x7x @RexChapman @ZKForTre It could’ve been a bit, but Norm was more of a conservative than a liberal. He did not like the Clintons, but he liked George Bush and John McCain. He did not like Trump or Sarah Palin though.
@RexChapman Rather than actual vaccine
This, this is the best yet. RIP Norm. https://t.co/YPM45WuS2S
Anti-vaxxers: We can’t trust the vaccine because it was made by Big Pharma!! Also Anti-Vaxxers: We’re gonna take ivermectin cause it’s safe….(even though it was also made by Big Pharma)
@RexChapman So true, Rex, and well said. I appreciate all the optimism, humor, insight and humanity you away bring to my day (and to millions of others).
RIP Norm Macdonald. https://t.co/ZVu2ybxb1Q
One of my favourite lesser known Norm bits was simply his recounting a moment from Kojak — effortless virtuoso stuff. #NormMacdonald https://t.co/LOJUz2jyrJ
Sh*t - PopTarts and I are the same age? That explains a lot. https://t.co/YhEzYsJs7V
And it marked the beginning of little Andi telling everyone in the school yard Sophia and Dorothy Petrillo were really her relatives. https://t.co/2iPhR5K4ac
@RexChapman I’m cry laughing. Or laugh crying. He will be so missed 😢
@RexChapman Thanks Rex. Many people forget about , or unaware , of his journey. He is truly a pioneer and a poet.
I can only imagine the reunion between Norm and Farley. RIP Norm. ❤️#NormMacdonald https://t.co/CMxnNGWQE4
Wow they will literally take anything but a safe reliable vaccine https://t.co/WOWc8oysYs https://t.co/K5Kv0G97l8
RIP to Norm Macdonald, one of the absolute GOATS 😔 So many clips to choose from but this scene from Billy Madison ALWAYS wrecks me 😂❤️ https://t.co/CkCckWY1Cg
@RexChapman Conan's face. 😂😂😂😂😂
❤️ https://t.co/kSACEdncnV
@RexChapman Yes, we need to appreciate everybody while they’re here.
Master songwriter and forever >>>>>> Toby Keith https://t.co/0LBGZfLDOp
@RexChapman The glimmer in his eye at :09 seconds in. His essence. #NormMacdonald https://t.co/N3va0jdIPp
This game of guessing the next misuse for common meds is getting tiring as hell. https://t.co/5Z5kmIk0Wu
@RexChapman His mind worked just a little differently than everyone else's and we all benefitted from it.
@RexChapman 😂🤣😂 https://t.co/AALXBnRDHe
@RexChapman "She's choking" You knew the line was coming, and it still makes you laugh.
Yes! Thank you @RexChapman for starting/suggesting him. The man has an amazing story, and has written some of my all-time favorite songs. https://t.co/Uk7l7vU0eA
@RexChapman https://t.co/gY0J4tbGos
Laughing so hard I’m crying https://t.co/s4cmdaWkXc
@RexChapman Thanks for sharing this, Rex.
Wait until the end if you need a laugh so hard you’ll cry 🤣🤣 https://t.co/s4cmdaWkXc
@RexChapman F'ing losing it over here, my face hurts from laughing.
@RexChapman Always do this. Gratitude for another should be second nature as long as it is sincere. I have never seen you play ball, don’t know you, but have told you how appreciative and inspired I am of your posts during Covid recovery. Even donated on Sunday. Team Game. https://t.co/37eD0xNFy9
@RexChapman I had that volume up too... ☠☠☠🤣🤣🤣
Seinfeld described them perfectly but if you toast the brown sugar ones they are pretty good. https://t.co/49vAh0aWvO https://t.co/Zc4Wuiy5lu
@RexChapman https://t.co/szzDBLmH5l
@RexChapman Going to bed feeling a little bummed-out, but greatful that I got to experience Turd Ferguson.
@didix8x7x @RexChapman @ZKForTre Norm did not wear his political views as an outfit, it was an old school approach that most guys his age grew up hearing was the right approach
@didix8x7x @RexChapman @ZKForTre A great Canadian. Godspeed. https://t.co/ihoQwwxG5n
@RexChapman Agreed. What makes it worse is, I was still trying to recover after the loss of Charlie Watts. I'm a huge Stones fan.
The vaccine is free. https://t.co/VILXbLeJ0L
@RexChapman @StephenAtHome had a nice rememberance of Norm. Said the only comedian that could get away with a "Norm Macdonald died joke, was Norm Macdonald."
“Exactly.”🤣 Rip to a great one https://t.co/M1EH4PRYVr
@RexChapman “5 minutes later” is really doing all the work here and has me in complete stitches.
Definition of an ego scoop. https://t.co/Sx5P8swLcQ
Scholars like ⁦@JennMJacksonPhD⁩ and me should not have to experience racist & threatening vitriol when we choose to engage in public debates. And our institutions should unequivocally defend us. Blanket statements not sufficient. My comments here. https://t.co/bSHJg2btcr
I’m a poll inspector today and our first voter at 7:15am was a cat. https://t.co/xqtvW54BuV
This morning I programmed a VCR for my mother. I also tested coaxial cables with a line checker from Radio Shack. I will pay someone to come rescue me from 1989.
Look, that smug roadrunning jerk had it coming. Wile E'. final triumph. https://t.co/0WzBA2aN8Q
The Post Most email (which I'm sure is likely automated) has a sense of Alanis-Morrissette-style irony. https://t.co/es0RI63e8N
What if - and hear me out - politicians seek out media attention and use that attention to deliver political messages tailored to make their constituents like them.
@nataliemj10 Best part of taking leftovers home from Rasika is we could literally lick our plates in the privacy of our own home.
@simonwillo https://t.co/HOF2zLA5pF
@simonwillo You can create a tweet thread in the desktop website and edit/send all at once when you’re done.
I saw a screenshot of this and had to go see if it was real. You're from Texas, sir. https://t.co/A9mFrF9Yd5
I said “trust the polls” repeatedly after the 2016 primary polls accurately showed Trump and Clinton the whole time. That did not go well for me. And remember that 2020 taught us that just getting the answer right isn’t good enough if we’re going for error reduction overall.
… to give you a snapshot of what the race looks like *at the time of the poll* based on the pollster’s best educated guess of what the electorate will look like. Nothing more (in horserace context). https://t.co/ay78IB2TMb
The vaccine is not political. Vaccine mandates are not political. They are public health tools that have been politicized. Let's get this right, even in stories about the Met gala. https://t.co/Uw16oVoQtH https://t.co/iYwgNdp3oK
I still can't believe the Applebee's commercial song is a real song.
I don't have any magical answers, though, and I do see why the divisive things are out there. I'm just expressing how it hits me. I get tired of it all.
This is why hyperpartisan messaging of any type bothers me. Don't get me wrong, one side is decidedly going down a much, much worse route. But anything that sows & encourages division and us vs. them thinking just hits me as very unhelpful for our long-term survival as a country.
And I deeply hope I'm wrong, but I can't argue with the conclusion that things could easily get worse. We can't even do basic public health messaging in this country without it becoming a cage match to the death (quite literally) between sides.
I'm just now getting to reading the new info from Peril re: Milley, etc. Sometimes I hate being right. We were a handful of people choosing to do the right thing away from all of this going down the drain. https://t.co/dAQmbhWaej
RT @julia_azari: feasible (a type of Constitutional crisis that @smotus and I note in our 538 piece a few years back) is a serious situatio…
RT @julia_azari: ... these revelations) But the 25th amendment offers a procedurally sound - if confusing and imperfect- solution to this p…
RT @julia_azari: As January 6 became January 7 and I was still up, I contemplated the possibility that Trump would be "soft-25thed", not al…
@gelliottmorris I just laughed out loud at the slap-the-tv reference. Definitely grew up with the same tv sitch.
Sorry, assisted living. The example is assisted living, not nursing home. Same principle applies, though.
The latter is a piece about how there are no workers in rural areas to replace workers who won't get vaccinated, hindering care in nursing homes, etc. Uhm. So we should let those people spread COVID in nursing homes??? Feels like misinformation to me.
@mkefrizz This was takeout from Vegz, but same basic idea.
Poll cat wins the recall election. https://t.co/vra66obVPA
Indian food is so good. Indian food leftovers for lunch are even better.
RT @PRRIpoll: TONIGHT - @PRRIpoll research director @nataliemj10 joins @lizhamel of @KFF and Tony Foleno of @AdCouncil to talk about vaccin…
@nataliemj10 You would be surprised how often I have to explain this to clients.
California recall election day exit poll and early voter poll results from @edisonresearch and the National Election Pool coming very soon https://t.co/GfVuzcDSu9
That’s a … quote isn’t it. https://t.co/vV6y8EwqoS
Just catching up on some interviews with Christian "Man of Many Moods" Lindner. (First snippet from Handelsblatt in May; second from Reuters yesterday.) https://t.co/Mef0Tc8ycC
A while ago, @JonnElledge sent me a copy of his book to give a supportive quote. I enjoyed reading it so much I forgot to provide one, so glad to make it up a bit by talking about it on our podcast: https://t.co/ZkbAvbwXEi
@AlbertsonB2 @jtlevy Dan Quayle is younger than Biden or Trump. Tanned, rested, ready.
@AlbertsonB2 There's a backstory...it's maybe my favorite dissertation story, actually. Let's just say it involved me sitting at a DC bus stop around 10 PM, very drunk, fielding the call from Quayle.
@AlbertsonB2 @MaintenancePod there's a new maintenance phase and a new you're wrong about so i think we know what my exciting weekend plans are!
Stephanie and I have taken to TV viewing on Zoom as a 2-body salve, and luckily it is for sure the easiest time to do that. Case in point: Only Murders in the Building is so good we stormed through the first 4, yet it is at most my 3rd favorite comedy currently on the air.
@julia_azari @MaintenancePod yep - it's the only way I get through dishes and laundry...
The new @MaintenancePod is on Marianne Williamson (yes, she wrote a diet book(!)) - just in case you needed to know.
have an incredibly vivid image in my mind of Boris repeatedly trying to sack Raab as Raab just refuses to stop doing push ups in a corner of the office, like Chris Traeger https://t.co/h58F0SLGmD
once again I have grated a bit of my finger while attempting to grate some cheese over a meal
ok you can stop messaging me now, thank you, it was a funny bit but it's done now, just a nice one-time bit that we all enjoyed, I think we can move on from it
if anyone wants to WhatsApp me some absolutely unhinged predictions for the reshuffle I would be very happy, and indeed honoured, to very seriously screengrab them and post them here with the caption "a source gets in touch:"
do remember that if you have the phone numbers of any Conservative MPs it is now your duty to call them from a withheld number, say "No10 switchboard, please hold", then mute the call and go about your day
What a quote https://t.co/F7CNGMxhDD https://t.co/XAGxnKTQ0G
Just thought that I’d tell you that today is the 40th anniversary of my Brussels ‘EU affairs career’. “Isn’t that amazing?” I can imagine you thinking…
Some personal news (a divisive phrase, I know!) - couldn’t be more thrilled to be joining such an incredibly talented team, on and off air. Very much looking forward to cracking on with the job. https://t.co/Vq4UyiMljq
I know there are bigger things in the world but today I got to have lunch with my best friend of 18 years @Tor820 for the first time since November 2019 (she lives abroad). She has put up with me through a lot. Here’s to true friendship. https://t.co/yJLv7ofYVG
Ahh yes noted influence op running a commercially available biography translation of a sitting pm
Good paper by @GuntramWolff/@ZsoltDarvas, but not convinced by their assumption that we can safely ignore the debt rule. Increased debt levels will make it very painful for the Commission to keep on bending it the way they did before the crisis. https://t.co/4KQSfoRaZR
Coding open-ended survey responses about why people ran for local office & really grateful that people are willing to give up jobs, juggle family needs, etc. bc they want to help their communities. Usually pretty limited rewards for doing so. local politics = best politics
Dominic Cooper as The American Voter https://t.co/jF3ky4Av04
It's been fun to learn that my tolerance for endless Lee Scratch Perry tribute shows is way, way higher than I might possibly have imagined. What a catalogue.
Just landed in Trinidad on an important assignment.
We talk about Dad of Daughters, as a type of guy, but we have left underdiscussed the righteous Mother of Sons
tuesday night this week: waiting for the polls to close in California so I can find out the results thursday night this week: waiting for the gates to close on Yom Kippur so I can eat
I’m sorry, this is grossly self-promotional, but I could not resist. Thanks for the thread, @mellissameisels !! https://t.co/GOP2JDzSsv
Or that, yes. Of course, I know what it's called. I was testing you all. A test!!! https://t.co/U5z4CiYvsp
🇬🇧 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧 send this to the prime minister & let him know they lied on me. I forgive him. No one else. Only him. 🙃 https://t.co/ZmJ2sST8Es
@M_PaulMcNamara You’re pregnant? Congrats!
@undertheraedar @atlasalbamaps What a relief!
Looking forward to watching @steve_vladeck this morning argue in SCOTX! https://t.co/6tz6SVPNF3
I have to confess that I did *not* have Dan Quayle on my bingo card.
it has been a pleasure to run the home office, he said https://t.co/PAq9BzYsAa
@RobinWigg also, not released on the same day as a major peer
@Modern_Lockey @stephenkb @juliablunck1 my proposal - to ACTUALLY ABOLISH inheritance tax (and just treat it as income to the recipient) is still available for anyone who wants
But isn’t the EU response to this going to be that it’s CBAM proposal already implicitly does, insofar as presumably the embedded emissions in any imported product should be lower if sourced from a country with a less carbon-intensive energy mix? https://t.co/AcM8x7jZ8L
As January 6 became January 7 and I was still up, I contemplated the possibility that Trump would be "soft-25thed", not allowed to do much, but not officially removed, during this remaining 2 weeks in office. It seems like I was probably right? (this seemed obvious even before... https://t.co/nfaL4xTNcr
what do firemen and newscasters on election night have in common? they both love exit poles!!! [this works better out loud]
@twlldun "oh by the way we've also removed the headphone socket on the new phones, for your convenience" I will never forgive them for that
Had an awesome pre Sept FOMC meeting with @TimDuy. He sets a high bar for us Fed watchers. https://t.co/D0tck334ol
SCOOP @JoeBiden suggested to #XiJinping (on their call last week) that the leaders hold an in-person summit to tackle #USChina relations but Chinese leader displayed no interest in the idea. https://t.co/8dLaazeYrv
*Taps mic* Some professional news! https://t.co/4Aq5emltT5
@stephenkb @juliablunck1 "The OBR has warned that not enough people have died in the first three quarters of 2025/26, and has urged the government to take immediate action to raise deaths in the final quarter or face cutbacks in adult care spending."
KISS on earnings calls. The more convoluted the language used by executives, the worse subsequent stock market returns are. Chart from Nomura. https://t.co/XxYpvwqYxU
“Why am I so tired after teaching? A memoir.”
I did not see the Dan Quayle cameo coming. Wow. https://t.co/sIXniOPQrb
It's stories like 'Nicki Minaj's Cousin's Friend's Gigantic Vaccine Balls Derail His Wedding' that make me really miss running a pub quiz.
@zinoman wrote a model remembrance of an artist. "He pleased the crowd without being a crowd-pleaser." Great line. https://t.co/NNtmxT9YTs
@emilyctamkin Uh oh Peers out from stack of LA Croix cans
Framed a @dorrismccomics print I had finally https://t.co/27O80iZD7A
@DavidHenigUK The UK has no road haulage logistics and supply chains with non-EU Single Market imports. The level of volume is so much greater than any of the port infrastructure set up for non-EU imports needs to handle
Thinking about this again. https://t.co/yyUBZp5VTz
@MattZeitlin That’s a good goal but I’m trying to do one last job
@blgtylr Weirdly (but also not) it is one of her best performances???
"Oh no I'm Tim Kaine" is so Tim Kaine it hurts https://t.co/BwU5KuIpcw
A useful dataset, now on @dataverseorg. The paper's model also accounts for spatial autocorrelation using county adjacency, which is cool. https://t.co/LcEy3HoyRc
i'm a pro at rotis now https://t.co/Kifayfo6Vt https://t.co/0iuwlBPO1E
@SarahGfink You know I raised this and he said he had nothing to say sorry for.
I’m not sure what the point of this tale is other than real repentance - and also being a patient big sister - is hard.
I was in New York these past couple days and tried to apologize to my younger brother for not always being so patient with him and he accepted and then did something else and I immediately lost my patience again.
Nice thread https://t.co/a3ppsFfhao
German documents from 1907 for the fifth and sixth Lubavitcher Rebbes, Rabbi Sholom Dovber and his son Rabbi Yosef Yitzchok Schneerson, affirming that they are both vaccinated. https://t.co/ZkZUAttQbP
Before a single statement becomes several, I am not questioning if the wealthy should be taxed.
I just read it again and it is still a top five piece every published on the internet. And it’s about Smurf trailers!? Dessem!!!!! https://t.co/dhjPZzVZAj
The man is a genius. https://t.co/dhjPZzVZAj
Data file is pretty easy to use thanks to @algaraca & co putting it on the Harvard Dataverse https://t.co/oTL2L5BN6L https://t.co/PBAAAMRZBw https://t.co/AjKpqsRO56
@emilyctamkin I drink at least a liter a day and i am hydrated so the article can bite me
RT @HannahLebovits: I've seen a lot of pple transition over this year in a way they describe as "more spiritual, less observant." And while…
RT @natachio: For @washingtonpost, I’m writing a story on a Gallup survey which shows an increase in support for interracial marriages. I’m…
RT @aseitzwald: NEW: Larry Elder's campaign is promoting a website that claims the recall is over, Newsom won, and they found voter fraud t…
Actually I will continue to overdo it, thanks https://t.co/hI92tD1675
If you go to https://t.co/4lbxJIyF9Z, all articles are currently out from behind the paywall, that you may feast your eyes on its redesigned glory. Go ahead. Read 'em. It's free.
RT @Jacob_Brogan: This is the worst and Matt's absolutely the best: Smart, funny, informed about Hollywood history, and culture more genera…
real galaxy brain tweet here https://t.co/pwOgEGI5ys
Let’s talk about racism! Most white people at prestigious magazines don’t ever want to talk about race or diversity at all. Why? It's primarily because they’ve been allowed to exist in a world where their mastheads resemble member registries at Southern country clubs circa 1950..
@Birdyword at least u can get an apartment that could be delivered in 2023...
@Birdyword what? u mean there have been problems in the housing market?
@Birdyword if my back of the envelope maths is correct, august re investment grew 0% YoY!
Contrary to what many lockdown sceptics predicted, suicides didn't spike during lockdowns and actually fell in many places (eg the UK). Somewhat paradoxically though, depression, alcohol & drug deaths all climbed. I had a think about why for my latest... https://t.co/oDJJ6gPD5i
@idvck completely right. As long as the narrative isn't "we were slow at the start but we won the race" I agree. But one should not accept that a slow start was *compensated* by a more rapid pace later on. Much damage was done early on, and then stuff got better.
Will any MPs be brave enough to bring up the day's big news at #PMQs? https://t.co/TRgPHlxdSx
This is me when the gas guy comes to change the canister and I need to quickly cover up🤣 https://t.co/acMbwyCR5C
@Dashni_Morad Yep, I can confirm she doesn't drive. Also I cant drive either :S
My favourite Alan Garner novel. https://t.co/Dz18R1RsuQ
@KatyaTaylor I'm guessing: Bewilderment China Room The Fortune Men Great Circle No One Is Talking About This The Promise
@BrendanNyhan @NathanKalmoe luckily everything I do is perfect and therefore un-criticizable. You should both really try it.
This childless attack is really pernicious https://t.co/f0VJC1yYtU
Critics: journalism is just stenography Most journalists: No it isn't Some journalists: I am literally just writing down what I am told
I don’t know about y’all, but I don’t have any more passwords left in me.
more of a trade foe myself https://t.co/Spj59lXGlL
@AbiWilks @yngvlgrn I have gone completely insane and would pick "five days in" over "five days at home" in a heartbeat
Last from me re Booker - I've judged a number of prizes and also helped set up a major prize - yes, it's about the book, always the book, but there are other considerations, whatever the judges say - otherwise there'd be all-male or all-white shortlists or, God forbid - all US :)
You can't turn economics into a football game. That's the sort of tribalism that's poisoning political life in a lot of the developed world right now, and if we divide into camps it'll just - wait what, big core CPI miss? In your FACE inflation hawks, hahaha, how do you like tha-
"I simply pass on", the mantle of the true newsman https://t.co/tNPw1EH4os
2) Yes/No votes are weird. In ballot measures (not exactly the same thing, but there aren't that many recalls to go on), No generally outperforms its polling. May be acquiescence bias in surveys, status quo bias in opinion, or something else.
The mistake wasn't the restaurant Per Se https://t.co/iI63YmtBW6
@chriscurtis94 @johnmcternan Doesn't it depend how you slice the data, Chris? (I'll get m'coat).
Anne Brontë is merciless on how shit it was to be a Victorian woman https://t.co/1OZADmJEON
Two beauties from ⁦@FaberBooks⁩ - Claire Keegan’s first fiction in a long while, out November, and a new novel from #BBCNSSA shortlisted ⁦@beingvarious⁩ - publishing March 2022! https://t.co/KmfC3fS2ml
Fab selection of titles from ⁦@PressPeninsula⁩ ! https://t.co/TrBy1WHlt6
‘Neither a memoir nor a work of psychogeography, Michael Bracewell’s Souvenir has elements of both, its shifting, impressionist narrative made up of recalled moments, places and encounters in the now impossibly distant London or the 1970s and 80s’ #Souvenir https://t.co/I27W6e4EUL
I was called out to a patient today & it turned out they were lonely, felt unsafe at home & wanted to go into care. 2 hours later, after discussions with a GP, a care home & social services, we were able to get them a social care visit today. More than just an emergency service.
@TomChivers @twlldun total dick move, like scrapping the iPod Classic because it was a bit too durable and useful
One thing to watch in #reshuffle is what Johnson does for the Levelling Up agenda. In #brokenhertlands (out tomorrow!). I argue the govt needs a dedicated senior 'Minister for Levelling Up'. Brexit was as complicated but had far greater resources. https://t.co/wSwQLsyfgV
@stianwestlake My hunch is that most GDPR abuses are lawyers/HR taking the piss, like most health and safety horror stories.
"GDP doesn't measure what we're interested in". I mean, yes, and carbon dioxide production doesn't measure what sports scientists are interested in either, but you'll still lots of elite athletes plumbed into gas measuring machines during training.
I am very much looking forward to working with the Delors family in Berlin, Paris and Brussels. Exciting times! @thehertieschool @DelorsBerlin https://t.co/24uqeU19IG
I think a lot about the Norm MacDonald line “I think clever people think poor people are stupid.”
While there's a huge scientific consensus for saying that Germany is the biggest benefiter from the Eurozone's current make up, German conservatives still use racist stereotypes to argue against sharing these benefits a tiny bit. This is how you dig the EU's grave. https://t.co/eZxPSJ3Ua5
This is the greatest thread of all time. And by a fellow Oregonian! https://t.co/juIT3bba9B
It’s time the super-wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share in taxes.
new (short) pre-print! with @b_schaffner and @scluks, we replicate and extend @regina_bateson's recent work on strategic discrimination using a conjoint experiment https://t.co/J1acFQKeqw https://t.co/lfuKCHeOac
Hats off to everyone denouncing AOC’s “tax the rich” meme while making it go viral
Doctors say that the COVID vaccine has no side effects relating to the function of sexual organs. In this Trinidad diner, my cousin's friend isn't so sure.
Dan Quayle, voice of reason.
@williamadler78 @awmannes @AlbertsonB2 I agree that he got a bad rap on net, and lord knows he looks better after Palin and Trump, but his reputation wasn't *entirely* unearned.
@AlbertsonB2 Oh my goodness. Wow. Things got dumber and yet the dumb got smarter.
@donmoyn But what does Amy Chua think?
Tuesday https://t.co/2vr9gKW5Io
The numbers show a comfortable victory for Newsom. The optics tell a different story.
Thread! Love this. https://t.co/bR4QyfFmf5
Own goal is my favorite soccer metaphor lately, as in, I hope California doesn't commit an own goal.
this tweet is going to age oddly, so https://t.co/vB8yoGu6rJ
@emayfarris I don't know if I have ever been more proud than now when you told me that you associate pb&j w me 😂
@AlbertsonB2 https://t.co/Ajz4dowMB3
@JZPhilosophy is your home state my home state? If so, not yet, and hopefully not this time.
@williamadler78 @AlbertsonB2 @jtlevy Pet theory - Quayle's chief of staff was Bill Kristol. A brilliant guy, great speechwriter or policy advisor. Absolutely wrong guy for a nuts and bolts politics gig. Also, he was the biggest leaker in the White House - which really cost Quayle with Bush.
@jtlevy my favorite line - Mike, I live in Arizona. There's nothing out here.
@tressiemcphd Only the royal family could make me feel bad for Margaret Thatcher.
@AlbertsonB2 @julia_azari @MaintenancePod I’ve taken to running approximately 30 min distance in one direction and where the walk home is approximately one podcast long. Really opened up the neighborhood:-)
@MCrowderMeyer that reminds me, I have a real soft spot for political scientists who run. @AmyEricaSmith is running for Ames school board! https://t.co/HtxJe7OKZo
I haven't been paying close attention to the California recall lately. Is Caitlyn Jenner gonna win or no?
@AlbertsonB2 Someone get the hammer and break the glass
@AlbertsonB2 between this story and me listening to the reposted @yourewrongabout Murphy Brown episode, there's been a lot of Dan Quayle in my brain this week.
@AlbertsonB2 I don’t think I can live in a world where this is possible.
I'm guessing this is not the big Larry Elder vote? #CARecall https://t.co/0AzdtJEySV
@AlbertsonB2 @AmyEricaSmith Amazing! Go @AmyEricaSmith! Thank you!
@AlbertsonB2 You are not allowed to be middle aged. Cause then I’d be elderly.
@mellissameisels https://t.co/REizzQ34qu
As with so much of what Woodward has written over the last five years, this is a bombshell story, and extremely troubling for civ-mil relations. A short 🧵 1/ https://t.co/FEkbj2NiON
Californians need to vote today in their recall, and election officials need to be supported in doing the nonpartisan service for the state (especially in an election that was not planned for!). No threats or attacks on voters or the election officials that serve them. Period. https://t.co/jdeJsK2cCB
@MHarrisPerry I take it back then! We're young, dammit.
@bobbycblanchard there should be emergency ted lasso.
@sbmitche I don't know - people say President, House and Senate. It's not great, but it's not terrible (I say cautiously).
Lego Masters Finale, because middle-aged life is way more exciting than I ever imagined.
also, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff setting policy, behind the president's back... chilling. the Dan Quayle stuff is more fun to think about.
Other pieces in that article are worth reflecting on - "But that’s the nature of democracy, General Li." Um, no. Typically we have something called loser's consent. It's important.
@davidsmeyer1 @MCrowderMeyer @AmyEricaSmith ok, I have a real soft spot for *some* political scientists who run for office ;)
@ericibid @AlbertsonB2 @MCrowderMeyer @AmyEricaSmith ABD. (Code as you wish, but he didn’t get the full treatment.)
@AlbertsonB2 Indeed. Super exciting.
@AlbertsonB2 @MaintenancePod I gotta into this pod! I love @yourewrongabout
@AlbertsonB2 Pretty sure it's spelled reasone.
@AlbertsonB2 @MCrowderMeyer @AmyEricaSmith Mixed bunch: Mark Hatfield Paul Wellstone Woodrow Wilson... (and history phds include George McGovern and Newt Gingrich)
@AlbertsonB2 @sbmitche Would be curious to compare this to how many people could, e.g. say what makes up an atom.
@aedwardslevy It knows what it did.
Had the pleasure of meeting Gavin Williamson at a charity do once. He was surprisingly down to earth, and VERY funny.
The “I am going to vociferously oppose planning reform because I don’t think it will have much effect at all” Twitter crowd is the most bemusing tribe.
Tax the rich? Absolutely. But remember, taxes don't pay for spending. The key is to expand the productive capacity of the economy, so we can deliver a wider range of services -- education, housing, healthcare, green infrastructure and so forth -- in a manner that doesn't result i
“Caroline Polachek” sounds like a New Yorker 20 under 40 who, after the list is published, just teaches at Columbia and writes a novel every 9 years, not someone touring with Dua Lipa
@nthnashma Do better next time
We are slowly edging towards the total pathologising of reading on here, aren't we? This place is nothing if not entertaining
Some Booker thoughts: never surprising that PRH titles dominate; constant emphasis that the prize is "global" basically means "America"; puzzled by judges saying they ignore identity and nationality when so many of the novels on the short/longlist are absorbed with exactly that.
I've just landed at Heathrow 😆 So amazing. To everyone who has ever been told you can't do something know that you can! https://t.co/BgvkoNQEzS
@chrishawtree @KatyaTaylor @ScurrRuth Yes, I think it has suffered a dilution of attention and prestige in the UK. And that matters. I have British novelist friends whose careers were considerably helped by getting on the shortlist. Now, this one tiny hope of help is largely gone.
I really don't think your stomach should lurch when you see the price of an off-peak return train ticket to Shropshire.
Resent Lorde for going to the Met Gala knowing she'll have no problems returning to NZ frankly.
Gosh. Just one British writer on the @TheBookerPrizes shortlist. Opening it up to the US certainly reduced the prospects for British writers, but many congratulations to @thesailorsgirl. What an achievement! And huge congratulations to all the others, too.
Sally Rooney's novel Beautiful World, Where Are You has gone straight to No1 in the Sunday Times Fiction hardbacks list for this coming weekend, selling a whacking 46,065 copies
@mia_qs He is simply one of our best writers
@GDRNorminton @chrishawtree @ScurrRuth Lost identity a bit maybe
@GDRNorminton @chrishawtree @ScurrRuth Yup
@ScurrRuth Do we really need all these American novels
Deeply disappointed that Sunjeev Sahota’s stunning China Room didn’t make the Booker shortlist.
My @ftweekend review of Nadifa Mohamed’s The Fortune Men — shortlisted for the #2021BookerPrize https://t.co/7qsG3rrqaF
Three out of six correct! Huge congratulations to @thesailorsgirl - the only British writer on the #2021BookerPrize shortlist with The Fortune Men https://t.co/AAZgPF4BKS
@WillEaves Funnily enough am just this minute listening to All About Eve’s Shelter from the Rain
@Alison_Edits All best to you and your family, Alison x
@WednesdayErskin @picadorbooks Ooh! When? X
@BarryPierce I’m going to constantly change my predictions throughout the day so I can’t be wrong
@arrroberts Your predictions are probably better than mine!
@DrPragyaAgarwal I have no idea what it even is
@BarryPierce I just made some wilful predictions, confident that I am usually wrong
@KatyaTaylor Me too - it's such a beautiful and devastating novel.
It brings us HUGE joy to announce that The Promise – Damon Galgut’s searing tale of a South African household shattered by grief, disloyalty and moral depravity – is shortlisted for the 2021 Booker Prize! https://t.co/wDQgUc2EcP
@KatyaTaylor Thanks, Catherine! x
@mia_qs @KatyaTaylor Same here, beautifully written prose & expert storytelling as ever, he should have had a spot on there
SO delighted that Nadifa Mohamed's formidable THE FORTUNE MEN is on the 2021 @TheBookerPrizes shortlist. As @FT described it, this book 'is a novel on fire' and its power is about to reach a whole lot of more readers. 🔥 @PenguinUKBooks @thesailorsgirl @VikingBooksUK https://t.co/LCbeOPzKtK
@KatyaTaylor I am consistently wrong in the Booker so I’ve fully given up
Sorry to report that I will literally never set foot in Finland https://t.co/xkXYahuiMZ
Fascinating book about 70s/80s London. I remember graffiti on our building as a child, and wondering what a 'sex pistol' was https://t.co/DqqmG0ngH8
@KatyaTaylor @thesailorsgirl I'm starting it tonight. Very excited.
Best start to a birthday ever. New sunnies, coffee on the beach, blue skies, best waves I’ve had all year (with two seals looking on). https://t.co/gxauaMHWH9
@KatyaTaylor Agreed. I am biased but I really felt it deserved to be on that list.
A couple of disco balls, more than a few radiators and electric boxes. And a whole lot of new people. Picador cover xxx https://t.co/v0pjn8nMmE
@KatyaTaylor Yep, there’s one there it could easily have replaced
You never saw any fat cats in the 70s, I blame the parents, etc etc https://t.co/sS0Yn0vOpK
Traveling to an Orange County steakhouse to listen to the forgotten men & women of California explain why they voted for Newsom over a $180 wagyu filet “He’s just so successful” gushed Kaylee Milfska. “I think it’s great to finally have a businessman in charge”
🚨bit of news 🚨as of today, I’m officially a staff writer at @unherd by night and a commissioning editor there by day
There it is. Unbelievable they wrote this all down. https://t.co/x7wNyYotKJ
Is Mel Gibson the most overtly RW mainstream Hollywood director? Braveheart, The Patriot & Apocalypto all share essentially the same plot: loyal husband & father sees his rural idyll shattered by sneering interlopers from the cosmopolitan metropole, and wreaks bloody vengeance
What it is currently (car park/offices) vs what it will be (offices, retail, gym, restaurant, public toilets, cycle storage) Honestly you have to be mad to think this is not an improvement & I am genuinely quite shocked to see how blatantly people are lying about what it is. https://t.co/H4SnYVgpcC
Not to blow my own trumpet, but this is basically the ideal feedback I could get from my piece 😊 https://t.co/D6dhnbzjIx
It doesn't help that so many advocates for natalism are kind of weird or creepy. Yet its entirely because helping people have the children they want *does* matter that we should seek to reclaim it from them https://t.co/kugQZCPZBC
Excited to share my @Unibocconi X @FT Masterclass about the challenges ahead for European leaders & how to deal with them. Together with am excellent contribution by brilliant @fromTGA Designed to be accessible to all students & hopefully does the job! https://t.co/2o7Zkjkhny
@StefanFSchubert @MWStory Schools basically childcare and private schools are fancy childcare with exceptionally good football pitches
@MWStory If whatever they do in their homeschooling pod is unusually useful for kids, I guess it could be done at a school? And my hunch would be that schools have some scale advantages over homeschooling, but I'm not read up on that.
Like the European Chip Act. After all, as @JamesCrisp6 knows, Brussels is great at chips. https://t.co/CrCV0TrGaI
Nicki Minaj tweeting "go away dumbo" to Laura K was not on my 2021 bingo card. https://t.co/6Wtq3v6bPr
EU foresees further divergence from China. “China will remain an increasingly assertive global power that does not shy away from applying economic pressure on countries and actors whose policies it disagrees with. Our values gap is growing.” https://t.co/QKlgJVuxKS
@duncanrobinson @simonk_133 like, I find myself agreeing with eg Anya Martin quite a lot but v v v much not in this case!
@duncanrobinson @simonk_133 there's genuinely loads of cases in London at the moment of atrocious NIMBYism dressed up as radicalism and I really don't think this is one
@duncanrobinson @simonk_133 at present yes. I'm not 'save this car park' so much as 'it's ok for people to have strong opinions on what replaces the car park'
@yngvlgrn @AbiWilks I guess I have complex feelings. I'm pro "seeing my baby all day" but I'm anti "only communicating with my editors through a single email in the morning and then filing copy into a faceless void throughout the day"
@yngvlgrn FT is doing 3 days in, 2 at the moment, it’s really nice to have Kadhim home more but I think he felt disconnected when he wasn’t in at all
I'm choosing to interpret "pass on" in Preston's tweet as the standard contemporary euphemism for "die", and also to interpret "die" as the prevailing Elizabethan euphemism for "to reach orgasm". https://t.co/yW8iu05tnc
80% ✅ https://t.co/0EPsDiX0NR https://t.co/eDHAs49iXw
> Don't want to encourage high wages and high skills > Captain hindsight > Close Costa coffee pt 2/2 Hardly message discipline.
Annoyed I didn't see/had forgotten that. Checked diary. I wasn't on holiday, although was off the week after so clearly not focused. It's blink and you miss it when Labour says something about Brexit.
Charles V: "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, French to men, and German to my horse" @vonderleyen today: I use English for economics and health, French for social policy and German to warn the Poles to respect the rule of law and our values. #StateOfTheUnion
@Alex_Niven It's because deep down nobody really believe there's another city called Salford, it's just the other half of Manchester. We just go along with the fiction, like parents with Father Christmas.
Last night, I wandered casually into a central London pub without booking, sauntered up to the bar and paid £6.95 for a pint. It’s good to be back.
All you can say is 'lol'. https://t.co/IhgJVpShl9
*FINE* https://t.co/NJHb7ScUfO
I think of @duncanrobinson primarily as a cousins friend.
I have loads and loads of cousins. I wonder what percentage of the population would fall into a broadly construed definition of 'cousins friend'.
The Strasbourg parliament press bar is the most Covid-haunted looking scene I've beheld all pandemic
if i was good at graphic design i would update with the numbers in original tweet https://t.co/t4Qr5ptLHx
i honestly think the ideal ratio is 2 days at home, 2 days in work, 3 days off https://t.co/imXXgvfK7a
You're the European Parliament. You have the European Commission president for a big speech... Do you a) have an actual debate with her that might be interesting and enlightening? b) make her listen to 81 MEPs first, by which point even hardcore EU nerds have tuned out? 🤷‍♂️
The downloads folder certainly tells a story. https://t.co/1S67fL8p2R
Came in because I had some stuff to do which would be quicker on my office PC and realised (a) I’ve missed this place; (b) my calculation of “quicker” did not factor in 18 months worth of software updates. https://t.co/XeaNVzHiDG
On this day 700 years ago, Dante died of malaria in Ravenna, northern Italy. A climate change thread ---> https://t.co/DnjzitYLeK
@simonvandorpe @damgerard @GeradinLaw @florianederer By the way, contrary to popular belief, I'm not even Austrian.
Manchester United remind of England still quite a lot in how they just refuse to keep the ball in important periods of games
hello https://t.co/06qDWNA8Ou
This morning, we are carefully listening to the State of the European Union, with the President of the @EU_Commission presenting her political priorities for the year to come. #SOTEU #SOTEU21 https://t.co/k5afrgGFpP
RIP to the London Mayoral one vote run-off system, the single worst voting system ever actually put into practice, the City of London included. https://t.co/kBfKhR2pDC
Broker Peel Hunt to IPO after pandemic boom in activity https://t.co/UDD4eHk9rJ
Hard to pick a favorite in line in @herszenhorn's satiric mock SOTEU speech, but I'm going with: "Can someone please geolocate the Geopolitical Commission? I lost it during the pandemic, or Borrell might have left it in Moscow." Howling. https://t.co/V4yeUhxlMk
@simonk_133 @owenhatherley Isn’t it mainly a car park?
RT @TheEconomist: Societies that oppress women are far more likely to be violent and unstable. Policymakers who fail to consider the intere…
@stianwestlake That smells...overly cautious.
@cjayanetti @stephenkb @juliablunck1 "The trouble with [euthanasia] is that you eventually run out of other people's [grandparents]"
@cjayanetti @stephenkb @juliablunck1 https://t.co/3eLu4EBTay
RT @TheEconomist: Both the CDU and and CSU were supposed to unite behind Armin Laschet. But after months of barely disguised sulking, the C…
@AdamsonPaul May it roll on for 40 more...
RT @duncanrobinson: The EU Zodiac: on astrology and eurology https://t.co/mGgPv5DB9y from @TheEconomist https://t.co/mGgPv5DB9y
@aidanosullivan @Ryanair https://t.co/vmvLjWfJNl
@duncanrobinson @stianwestlake Sounds like overkill to me, and an opportunity for training companies.
Great session just now with @duncanrobinson and the Commission's excellent @diederiksamsom (@TimmermansEU right-hand) who said: extending ETS carbon pricing to new sectors is single most controversial thing in EU climate package. Which is why social transition funding needed. https://t.co/Ro4U1S9SnG
Gonna make a Call Me By Your Name-esque languorous shoegaze romance film about me and @amanlyant’s printer
Favorite article of the week: “Why EU-watching is like astrology” from ⁦@TheEconomist⁩ https://t.co/EQ4u98KtP1
I unironically believe the City has the best voting system of any local authority and should be copied. It's the only system to give votes to people who spend their working lives there, rather than just those lucky enough to own property. https://t.co/zUlB1K14wp
In January, @e_casalicchio at POLITICO said Johnson had claimed the UK was going to become the "Saudi Arabia of wind power - and penal policy" in a phone call to more than 250 business leaders. No 10 claimed this was "total bollocks". https://t.co/j0PhuxOTWQ
I continue to be a strong advocate of including bold initiatives in #SOTEU. Among all, #nuclearfusion, for years my preferred one. Science continues to bring us closer to it, while it could be only formula to reconcile green targets with a fair transition. https://t.co/VHWSdTNZba
None of that is remotely surprising. It has no real political party presence, so councillors don't just squabble down party lines. Residents don't get vetos, so change is embraced. There's a real and deep sense of civic pride born from its quirks, history, and life.
Nous sommes vraiment ravis que @STGEUI @EUI_EU rejoigne @CoE_POL @collegeofeurope, l’Institut européen @Columbia et le Centre Europe @Cambridge_Uni comme partenaire scientifique de notre série hebdomadaire de séminaires consacrés à la discussion éclairée de nos revues et notes. https://t.co/2NFNhrPq7s
⚡️Los Camp! December shows⚡️ Cardiff / London / Leeds 🖤 10% of all tickets available to low income fans for just £5 🖤 All venues fully accessible 🖤 Gender neutral facilities Tickets go on sale Thursday at 10am. Where are we seeing you? https://t.co/OuUM6FV6wy
Why does the @Ryanair Belgian website default to French? Most Belgians speak Dutch!
NCT groups, pregnancy hormones, cozy crime and even an anecdote about her dog (warning: it's a bit gross), all feature in today's post from Kat Sumner-Ailes, who is on our longlist with her novel, "The NCT Murders." https://t.co/bVUwHSvmne
@RobinWigg Reports that explain why things are happening are useful. Reports that simply repeat numbers shown in a table are not.
Me: In England England: Cloud, rain Greece: Hot, sunny Me: In Greece England: Sunny, heatwave Greece: Clouds, rain, cold wind Me: Back to England England: Torrential rain Greece: Hot, sunny I literally want weather insurance, why is this not a thing?
FYI : Gas is to blame https://t.co/tBeQL3umPn
@feedthedrummer City of London has the best system yet devised for local elections and I will die on that hill.
Look at the results: - No NIMBYism, new devs welcomed - Floorspace has rapidly grown - Traffic calmed for pedestriand/cyclists - Busy streets beautified - New public squares/gardens/overhead walks - New housing despite v limited space - Retained 1000 yr old pageantry/tradition
@stianwestlake Are you dealing with particularly sensitive info? If the person telling you this is an advisor with liability they are incentivised to be as draconian as possible. Most SMEs do almost nothing.
@BrunoBrussels The gas price explosion is looking disastrous for the greens in Belgium who had promised to close the country's nuclear reactors sooner than needed even though this would mean opening several new gas plants (yes insane in the context of climate change).
@nosunkcosts I respect the lock but really some stuff longs to be RTed
@M_PaulMcNamara love, Grzegorz Brzeszczkiewicz
It's funny that this video is going round just at the same time as Chinese property panic is back in the news. It's a relic of the previous problem (too much building of things people didn't want) rather than the existing one (not enough building of stuff already paid for) https://t.co/BamssYVwFi
Missed exit poll opportunity: French Laundry fav/unfav
Excited to see two dozen pieces of punditry about what the eventual SDP result in the German election means for the centre-left globally from people who have to get the subeditors to remind them there's a C in Scholz.
@joshchafetz @profmusgrave i love this
Projecting a 38.6% increase in horse puns. https://t.co/qqWSwT1Z0o
Leading 0s are the devil's work.
#MetGala2021 looks as political science books: Kristine Froseth as Democracy for Realists https://t.co/tqyK2D5RkK
did we ever find out what happened to gavin oldsom
this is by far the best bit on this site, everyone gets so mad but doesn't really know why and can't quite articulate it, 10/10 https://t.co/9uaupPyuNk
I think this is basically true in the short term, but maybe not for quite the same reason as Alan. People like to hype the idea of massive spillovers, but the financial system is still very domestically oriented, I'm not sure what the obvious point of contagion is meant to be. https://t.co/OzT3FP9Vks
The USD bonds are the biggest clear exposure to the rest of the world, and they've been treated like the trash they are for a long time, it's not like there's somewhere in the western financial system treating Chinese RE debt as if it's safe.
Investment in Chinese real estate is STILL up 10.9% year-to-date. Housing sales up 22.8%. Think how much has to be wrong with this industry when these growth rates aren't enough. https://t.co/WpyjTKE9Uf
The fascinating thing is that it's been clear been for over a year now that the Three Red Lines policy, if enforced, was potentially an existential issue for the most leveraged Chinese developers. Presuming that the govt was bluffing was very bold. https://t.co/kDWm216t3m
@spignal @afhivert Creme Brûlée blow torch, incredible
Update: LOL. I haven’t been an academic since the day I left graduate school, and part of the reason I Ieft was I didn’t fit in politically or culturally. If the politics of the “radical university” match up with me, then it’s a term so broad it’s meaningless. https://t.co/U5Ub38zcMh
There is an amusing story of Joan Robinson and Gustav Ranis (late 60s? early 70s?) both gushing over the amazing economic progress that Korea was making. Ranis thought they were talking about South Korea. Only later did he realize that she had been talking about North Korea! https://t.co/nQICnPH5qz
Wow can’t believe he lived there https://t.co/bbHomoRHNn
At the end of this stretch I will have spent 0.5% of my life to date in quarantine. https://t.co/aLT9sumVX1
The Housing Theory of Everything, by @s8mb @bswud and @johnrmyers - such a good illustration of why Works In Progress is great. https://t.co/2SHcQvr0Gb
A few years ago someone smart said that relations between the US and China weren’t actually that bad if they hadn’t gone after foreign ownership of the Macau Casinos yet… https://t.co/5ht4YgHYwE
@edzitron This is why so much of the Batman films are set underground
for instance, the other night as i was walking to the table with a platter of food, my belt loop caught on a drawer knob and i lurched forward, slinging all the food to the floor in a steaming heap. then my dang glasses fell off and the òrb, in her high chair, said "uh oh" softly
Last year, I argued that ESG was the most overhyped, and oversold concept in business (https://t.co/jRgAchR4IN), and heard from people who felt I was missing its good points. After a year of searching, I still cannot find them.. https://t.co/mHUyIWpAKe
@ParetoOptimizer @Birdyword In the UK they already have de facto veto power over stopping development on their street, this adds the power to permit development on their street in exchange for getting the power to develop themselves
@Birdyword the funnier, more devastating burn here is that the Clubhouse app is now as popular as tumblr
What https://t.co/UWABjrwMtE
@MattZeitlin it was in a WSJ article
Reducing child poverty is good imo
If there is contagion, I’d be looking at the yields of IG property developers, the spread between HY and IG developers and whether companies in the industry can still issue bonds.
@Birdyword Much higher because they’re the apex predators who eat the mackerel - maybe a human could eat nothing but mackerel for an experiment?
@ewpaisley @OnTheWoolsack @Birdyword What exactly? Whenever someone goes on an All Mackerel diet
@Utilit_Aria @OnTheWoolsack Another sterling idea by OTW
@UnlearnEcon Even relative to what was known at the time Robinson's discussions of the Cultural Revolution and GLF were absolutely wild.
@OnTheWoolsack How's the heavy metal content relative to mackerel
Biden's pledge to oversee “the largest ever one-year decrease in child poverty in the history of the United States” looks likely to happen. In July, US child poverty was 41% below its usually levels, in large part down to the retooled child tax credit. https://t.co/oZ4kc7Y8ND
RT @tomgrundy: Nine of 12 top #HongKong democrats have been handed jail terms of six to 10 months over the banned Tiananmen Massacre vigil…
Nightmare scenario is a test of capital controls potentially feeding through FX, but there's little evidence of that - govt seems relatively well-placed to fight that war (not absolutely well-placed, but since it's what happened in 15-16 it's familiar). Any other ideas?
@GearoidReidy Is this based on the idea that better vaccines come over 2-3yrs or just that people won't be comfortable for 2-3yrs?
@jackycwong Well I'm starting to think that these Evergrande trade credits I bought from a cement manufacturer in Guangdong at 90 on the dollar might not have been a very good investment
@jackycwong True! Problem didn't just start though
Now there's a miss https://t.co/vO2Jtxiuqk
Macau Casinos Plunge After Government Proposes Tighter Control https://t.co/7x0XY0zVcs
I'd still take this over 1.5-2% of my life in hard lockdown and another 1.5-2% in mixed measures, I think, but check in next year to see if I still agree.
@GearoidReidy It's wild how we all thought that the US rate at its peak was very fast, and how many countries have subsequently rolled things out way faster than that.
This one, this thread. I feel like was the end. https://t.co/xk1uXV7guA
My memory of the history of Clubhouse is that there was basically one thread on here, can't remember by who, which noted you'd need an extraordinary volume of constant content production because nothing was preserved. And after, everyone just sort of said 'oh yeah' and moved on. https://t.co/lXxaxpeLq1
@PoliticsForAlI You've made it
@ClausVistesen Definitely for me
@ewpaisley @karlbykarlsmith Great relatively superficial example of that https://t.co/JES2R2c97F
@INArteCarloDoss I wouldn't have replied but for the rude post, I presumed you might have some genuine correction to what I said - but you know nationwide inventory is relatively low and it's the contract liabilities that are the issue, so it's fine.
@karlbykarlsmith It sounds like that's sort of part of it, it's been handed over between different developers and there's been some deterioation. But I think the main problem is that it's been stalled for the best part of a decade and nobody wants it now.
@INArteCarloDoss The capital misallocation is the problem, not the inventory. 9.3tn sqm in contracted sales in H1, relative to 2.3tn sqm in national inventories. How much inventory does Evergrande report?
@INArteCarloDoss Which bit is ignorant?
@MayankSeksaria Crack your wallet open you cheapo
@MayankSeksaria V good roundup here (not from me!) https://t.co/CaQb9TQDOr
@SadlyTemporary Sunac was as recently as EOY, no? Evergrande I think actually snuck under on gearing in its last results.
@charlesarthur Red up green down, yeah.
I suppose the strongest version of the argument is that if they *really* meant it, why would the regulators let Evergrande just keep making heavily discounted pre-sales all year, just compounding the madness and leaving a bigger mess to clean up? Which is a fair question.
It wasn't a case of 'we're gonna crack down on property and we really mean it this time!' headlines - there were specific 'you can issue debt if you hit these targets and can't otherwise' rules, and these guys were waaaaaaaay over the 'absolutely not' side of the targets
This is a really good point, and is an illustration that for all the hot air about getting vaccinations done, there is an astounding lack of international coordination which could unlock a huge number of doses. https://t.co/8TbeUJEOZj
@SadlyTemporary @gksteinhauser Easy mistake for me as well because I don't know anything about German politics
@Birdyword Or that the party is called SPD ;-).
@Birdyword Did everyone forget that the services PMI plunged in August? https://t.co/0TosFMwmwq
Perfect answer. https://t.co/71Yue7RbAj
I'm teaching about the California recall election early tomorrow morning. Fortunately that state has a history of tallying election results quickly.
This thread is remarkable - in part because typically black and brown journalists are the ones forced to speak up here. Can't imagine statistics at any of the major journalistic institutions would look much better... https://t.co/tm2NxT6L4M
Global press corps this morning is having to cope with being out-interviewed by a child reporter. https://t.co/YDeNHOMcZy
There's a difference between earned income and post-tax income that's important to spell out. But, especially after an extraordinary experiment in fiscal relief, it's misleading to suggest that incomes fell when we all have access to the fact that no they didn't.
Juncker used to use his #soteu speeches to big up pipedreams like an EU army. Von der Leyen says it might be a good idea to maybe apply slash VAT on some parts of defence procurement
cc: my Separation of Powers seminar students .... we spent half of today's class talking about the parliamentarians https://t.co/XJq9zLwS0l
Paris méritait mieux que ça. https://t.co/w4MVzjz6HN
@spignal @economistmeg Not true. Horses have a track record.
@lbsterling @MathieuRosemain @abhinavvr @Reuters_SarahW it's probably fine. I'm sure everyone who loans any money into that structure understands exactly what would happen to it if the going gets tough. Just like they did with Casino! Plus, can anyone point to examples of insane complexity and plentiful leverage being a problem, ever?
@MathieuRosemain @abhinavvr @Reuters_SarahW @lbsterling the leverage in... which entity? the holding company that owns its own parent which owns its own parent which is owned by a company that owns an entity two levels below that also owns its great-grandparent? https://t.co/7kpTFvVyUy
Departing Swedish PM Stefan Löfven during last parliamentary leaders' debate is receiving gifts from well-wishers in rival parties. Kinda cute! Includes tickets to ABBA concert (has the man not suffered enough?), train tickets, a pizza stone https://t.co/TQLi7865ca
@abhinavvr @Reuters_SarahW @MathieuRosemain @lbsterling Spend another €3bn on batteries with not much to show for it? Is that an option?
RT @ARobertsjourno: First images reveal Christo’s wrapping of Wandsworth bridge in London. (NB: https://t.co/8Mohe9AmeE ) https://t.co/vDiJ…
@economistmeg is it as simple as they make a commission every time someone buys or sell crypto on there?
@Ned_Donovan @spignal You might know it already, but Stefan Löfven is educated and has worked as a welder.
@spignal @Reuters_SarahW @MathieuRosemain @lbsterling That seems like a more likely option than **shock horror** paying back some of his debt...
Saying someone is not an immigrant if they are from Canada really gives away the game of what you mean by “immigrant.” https://t.co/55Y4fDLGEu
Why does everything happen in September all at once? Every bloody year.
You might be tempted to look down on "trade press" jobs. You absolutely should not: they provide a wealth of expertise that make you a better & more valued reporter. https://t.co/BzoEuWWe3M
early analysis: all of this california b-roll is making me very homesick
Britain's health secretary @sajidjavid revealing psychic powers see into the results of an ongoing blinded phase 3 vaccine trial. There is no polite way to call BS on this. https://t.co/YN9JDmKMU8
Tweet-length Analysis: There are far more Democrats than Republicans in California. Early interest + intensity were on the side of recall proponents. Once @GavinNewsom and allies were able to rouse Democrats to vote in a weirdly timed election, that was that. {With room to spare}
Everyone says pop culture doesn’t actually matter but sideways destroyed the Merlot market
Precinct level scatter plot for "Vote No" vote share vs. 2020 Democratic vote share. Unsurprisingly, high correlation. Newsom is currently slightly over-performing (plot is shifted to the right of x=y), but note this is because we've only seen early vote. https://t.co/FcE8IG6lNo
Prominent research argues that support for political violence is surging in America. In a new paper @justingrimmer, @_mdtyler, @ClaytonNall and I show that current survey estimates of support for partisan violence are 30-900% too large. https://t.co/kp7SfsWs0c
Everything we've seen from 2009 suggests Republicans would force Manchin to go through with it. So it's not a good bluff; he has to mean it. No idea whether he's there or not. https://t.co/847vDXnZFf
@BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias So, for ex, if there were substitution effects w/use of other social media, which were even worse- would we say that was a win for IG? Sort of. All of this is to say: it's hard to disentangle...
@BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @mattyglesias Yeah, but even deactivation experiments are fairly narrow in the counterfactual they posit. e.g. they don't tell us about a world where social media companies handled the issue better.
@jon_m_rob @mattyglesias right, very worrisome but self-reports are not the ideal way to answer that question. better would be a deactivation experiment that randomly paid people not to use IG and measured effects on body image directly.
@mattyglesias The impact of Facebook products on X is a fraught causal Q in all domains. It should at least be modestly relevant that throughout the entire rollout of Instagram's popularity the estimated # of ppl w/ eating disorders hasn't changed very much https://t.co/KCns2y1dv8
Truss has an excellent sense of when to move on just in time before a successor has to clean up the mess https://t.co/9DtV9EZWBg
The EU paying much less attention to the UK and Brexit means the EU and its member state elites end up paying much less attention to the Brexit-analysis complex in UK media and think tanks.
@laseptiemewilay https://t.co/8yrTw0qTHI
Are Wendekinder going to end up like how our 68er parents moaned about how the 1998 election was so under niveau even they voted in the days of Stamokap and "Brandt an die Wand"?
There is a bit of golden ageism going on here. 1994, 2002, 2005 and 2009 had their share of maximum stupid. It's like people have forgotten veggie day and Guidomobil. Or Rudolf Scharping https://t.co/qvbeNp4cSm
@thorstenbenner @NewStatesman That's why in a UK context I've often emphasised to counterparts in Whitehall the importance of reaching out and courting leaderships and potential up and coming politicians in Rome, Warsaw, Madrid and several other capitals and not just monomaniacally hoping Berlin will fix it
Three Eyes https://t.co/NPnkxfbpaY
All of that being said, the @NewYorker’s website has, over the past 5 years, published a comparably impressive array of diverse bylines, easily eclipsing the print mag in terms of representation and inclusivity.
By the way, all of this information is public & anyone who wishes to can do their own research into the data. I encourage everyone to explore the @NewYorker’s diversity ratios, as well as those of other influential publications.
What gets me about Facebook is that all the people who work there have very in-demand skills and could get jobs at all kinds of companies whose core product is more useful to the world. https://t.co/eKrbMiZHCh
@CAVandy @M_PaulMcNamara @zatapatique @TedLasso not tried it yet. Just finished The White Lotus, which was FAB
So relieved that Robert Jenrick, the reform-minded scourge of my constituents in Nimby-on-the-Wold has been removed from his post. Now to take a big sip of coffee and find out what Michael Gove's new job is.
“Norm @normmacdonald was a great talent, and I loved laughing with him on SNL. *Bob Dole* will miss Norm Macdonald.” https://t.co/gPsdyJ5tS9
Some people talk about alt-ac, I’m doing something about it https://t.co/c8ZDfxqr8c
It won't make a difference on the outcome, but it is worth keeping in mind that we still don't have anything on either the size or makeup of the Election Day vote, which is all but assured to knock Newsom down a bit from where he's standing now
@jacob_coblentz https://t.co/XfXetSedmC
@bryan_caplan Lotta empty cells at the bottom...
Well that sounds like Jurassic Park with extra steps. https://t.co/TqMcFnuXnW
Doing some back of the envelop math, if E-Day votes (I'm guessing approx 1.7 million) break like they did in 2018, then we're seeing pretty elevated R turnout compared to the 2018 election. https://t.co/d1eMbGz6PU https://t.co/glcUFZp3lG
!!!!! sitting next to a couple on a flight and he told his wife to check her phone and she just said "what does mile high club mean" !!!!!
Not that anyone need care, but if Vera Farmiga is being set up to play a vampire antagonist in the Mahershala Ali Blade film, I am very OK with that
One dinner at the French Laundry, $276 million.
Keep thinking that pondering inflation right now is like parenting a teen. The never-ending question: Is this just a phase?
Very excited to share this award with @jinwoo_kim01!! Life in academia is full of rejections, but sometimes (once in two years?!) we get lucky. https://t.co/6jN24YCAnO
@dsquareddigest @JMagosh Yeah, and I think this is where the policy stuff is just a red herring, in that, e.g. if you want to keep the tuition fee policy from the Corbyn era is because you think working age voters are overtaxed, that's a different political approach.
@dsquareddigest @JMagosh ...in any case, the problem isn't primarily one of comms but that they have made oodles of policy announcements but to my knowledge zero announcements of principle. (I.e. there are so many reasons to oppose the two-child limit: what is Starmer's?)
@dsquareddigest @JMagosh Yes, absolutely you could - though I think the claim that e.g. the climate announcment or the welfare stuff or indeed the jobs announcements McDonald made over the summer were either would be motivated reasoning...
@deq451 @dsquareddigest @Modern_Lockey @juliablunck1 (Ok, yes, I am extrapolating that if you are higher up the income scale you are more likely to pay it but as the best way to be wealthy is to have wealthy parents this feels like a safe-ish one!)
@deq451 @dsquareddigest @Modern_Lockey @juliablunck1 In all the polling on inheritance tax I've seen, it's striking IMV that you are more likely to support it if you're more likely to have actually paid it, I suspect precisely because of this.
@dsquareddigest @Modern_Lockey @juliablunck1 Think there's a weird failure to acknowledge that anyone who comes into contact with inheritance tax, even if they are not in any universe going to pay it, is in a 'you've just been bereaved, please fill out this form' context.
@dsquareddigest Yeah, I think there is a very fair criticism of Geoffrey Cox's argument that 'it's so good they'll hate it' is 'yeah, so it's not gonna last, is it?' rather than the guffaws that Labour backbenchers 'for a deal' (just not, you know, any actually existing deal) met it with.
@dsquareddigest @PerthshireMags @HugoGye I have a tongue-in-cheek reply to this, but I think it might be a little bit *too* London elite to do it without getting cancelled.
@Nolan_Mc I went to graduate school in political theory in the 1990s?
How do we get Cardi B to start a beef over the £20 UC cut? Get some attention for that?
@joncstone @Duncanthewegie @JMagosh Yes, fair. I think I just look at it and I am immediately dubious because it feels like a repeat of the 'well, people tell me they don't know what I stand you. Well, what if I told you that I support [insert thing that basically every Labour MP and most Lib Dem ones might say] '
What is to be done? Why, to subscribe to Morning Call: https://t.co/YoZ2SQ84fe https://t.co/lPImfZIUOb
@liamyoung @JMagosh Liam, this is going to blow your mind,but whenever a political party makes a policy announcement they send a press release.
We’re done here, people. Life can only go downhill from this. https://t.co/aNGJREcfpm
If you gave Bob Woodward proof the world will end next month unless we take specific action today, he’d still hold it for his pub date next week. https://t.co/yDjtm7G5gc
Jewish life is a fundamental part of German life. Evidence of Jewish life and culture in German-speaking lands dates back 1700 years. That's why I celebrated the opening of a new @lbinyc exhibition in my Residence today. https://t.co/ZJb9wms5bZ
... these revelations) But the 25th amendment offers a procedurally sound - if confusing and imperfect- solution to this problem and NO ONE TOOK IT, and this inversion of civil-military control is the result. The extent to which our formal institutions are not politically...
RT @business: The man who calls himself ‘Inflation Guy’ has been preparing for this moment for almost 20 years https://t.co/2aiUD4cKmg via…
RT @JStein_WaPo: https://t.co/B4nrFOcKCf https://t.co/c1BwEXplMe
RT @TheStalwart: Pretty incredible to see the deceleration and then outright drop in used car prices vs. just a few months ago https://t.co…
RT @josh_wingrove: (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in August by less than forecast, suggesting that some of the upward pr…
RT @lizzzburden: The UK labour market defied the economic slowdown in August The no. of workers on company payrolls is back above pre-pand…
RT @StuartLWallace: “I knew what I was doing was wrong and unlawful.” An oil trader got caught sending bribes to Africa. Then he turned on…
RT @JavierBlas: BREAKING: China announces the sale of ~7.4 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves on September 24 (that's eq…
RT @economics: August data will provide a key test of whether inflation is a transitory phenomenon that will soon dissipate, @johnauthers w…
Not how you win a playoff spot… https://t.co/9yQw9ZYAir
Waking up to a @RedSox west coast loss to the Mariners and a tumble out of the playoff spots… September baseball can be cruel… 16 to go… https://t.co/p8bzHd6u4R
RT @annmarie: China locked down Xiamen, a city of 4.5 million people in the southeastern province of Fujian, after detecting a dozen corona…
RT @JavierBlas: GAS MARKET: I don't want to alarm anyone, but European gas prices are up this morning >7% to a new all-time high, bringing…
feasible (a type of Constitutional crisis that @smotus and I note in our 538 piece a few years back) is a serious situation.
.@steve_vladeck is trying to explain something on Twitter to our (lovely) 20-year-old babysitter and she’s politely smiling but her eyes say “omg what is this old man talking about no one uses that app”
8AM, time for some self-citation.
Good evening to only the other 153 people who are crushing this Tuesday night live-streaming the house energy and commerce committee markup. And to @RepBobbyRush’s entire situation here. https://t.co/cBdxxgBwZB
we also extend the finding in two ways. first, we show that strategic discrimination is independent from first-order measures of animus. people who are both low and high in hostile sexism or racial resentment penalize candidates women or candidates of color similarly https://t.co/6OEJQJxQwg
Is it weird to anyone else that you can say you're vaccinated *for* COVID-19 and vaccinated *against* COVID-19, and mean the same thing?
Excited to be a panel moderator at this amazing, if terrifying, event. Register to learn more about the dangers facing American democracy right now. https://t.co/m0d6QSAejz
because i think we need to talk more about the power and nature of the presidency and how our usual treatment of everything from EOs to signing statements to war powers has flattened out the discussion in counterproductive ways
so now I can add "making me momentarily think well of Dan Quayle" to the list of the Trump Administration's atrocities ... https://t.co/shkmdlIquc